UNECE Group of Experts on Population and Housing Censuses May 23 2012 November 1 2011 Statistics Canada Statistique Canada 2 Mandate and Scope of Review Mandate Study options on the methodology and ultimately deliver a recommendation to the federal government for the 2016 Census progra ID: 378305
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Slide1
The Canadian Census of Population: a Review in Preparation for 2016
UNECE Group of Experts on Population and Housing Censuses
May 23, 2012Slide2
November 1, 2011
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada2
Mandate and Scope of Review
Mandate
Study options on the methodology and ultimately deliver a recommendation to the federal government for the 2016 Census program
In scope : Four components assessed and integrated into an option analysis report
Legislative
Content determination framework
“Canadian context”
Methodology
Out of scope: detailed methods, content and costingSlide3
Legislative
Decennial Census A requirement under the Canadian Constitution ActQuinquennial census
Constitution Act
requires
quinquennial
census for the Prairie Provinces
Statistics Act
requires Canadian
quinquennial
census since 1970Definition of a census of population
November 1, 2011
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
3Slide4
Framework
Sequential approach to assess or build census/NHS methodology options incl. contentNovember 1, 2011
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
4
* External and internal needsSlide5
Consultation on uses
Feedback sought fromFederal, provincial, territorial and municipal governmentsAboriginal organizations
Selected direct end-users and secondary distributors and 'umbrella' org. in non-profit and business sectors
Uses/data requirements
Statutory, program and other requirements
Topics (by order of priority)
Level of geography / Sub-populations
Trends
Multivariate
November 1, 2011
Statistics
Canada • Statistique Canada
5Slide6
Methodology
November 1, 2011Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
6
Necessary
conditions
Status
Comment
1. Public awareness
and cooperation
Acceptably
high
Confirmed in 2011
2. Geographic infrastructure
Yes
3. Stable political and socially
secure environment
Yes
4. High-level of literacy for self
completion
Yes
5. Legal
and administrative framework
Yes
Approach 1
–
traditional census
A collection of data
from all households on individuals
, at a specific point-in-time, constitutes the spine
May involve some
sampling for characteristics
The
collection modes may vary; some data may be replaced by administrative dataSlide7
Methodology
November 1, 2011Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
7
Necessary conditions
Status
Comment
1. Legal basis to use administrative data, linked by identification numbers
Partially
Existence of S-13 of
Statistics Act
, but tedious process
2. Public understanding and approval
Unknown
There has been p
ublic reaction to 2000 Government longitudinal file, Privacy Commissioner
has also expressed concerns
3. Unique PINs
No
Social Insurance Number is not universal and its usage is limited by legislation
4. Minimally, population, dwelling and business registers
No
No pop, Address Register is good but incomplete, Business Register is good but designed for business surveys
5. Incentives for the population to register and change their address
No
6. Recording of dates of changes or events
Partially
Limited to births and deaths
Approach 2 – census employing existing administrative registers
A set of data first collected for administrative purposes and linked together constitutes the spine
Can be supplemented by surveys (census or sample)Slide8
Methodology
November 1, 2011Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
8
Necessary conditions
Status
Comment
1. Multi-year program of comprehensive planning, development and testing
Not done
Experience of France and the USA valuable
2. Agreement of census stakeholders
Unknown
Experience of France and the USA valuable
3. Geographic infrastructure
Yes
4. Several years of data required for small areas – must start in 2012
Unlikely
For data to be available in 2017
5. Different form of funding
Not done
Funding would need to be developed
6. Skilled staff
Partially
StatCan has the staff, but in part busy with census/NHS at the present time
Approach 3 – census employing continuous measurements
A collection of data from the individuals, where all or a part of it is collected on a continuous basis
May involve some sampling
The collection modes may vary; some data may be replaced by administrative data Slide9
November 1, 2011
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada9
A traditional census is the only possible option for 2016
The presence or absence of a voluntary component remains an open question until the data qualities studies are completed for the National Household Survey.
ConclusionSlide10
November 1, 2011
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada10
Such a review requires a dedicated team (separate from production teams)
Requires key knowledgeable resources
Organisational buy-in is important – senior management governance
External validation is desirable
Highlighted the importance of international networks
Lessons LearnedSlide11
October 27, 2011
Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada
11
Project contacts
For more information, please contact:
Julie Trépanier or
Marc Hamel
613-951-9437
613-951-2495
Julie.Trepanier@statcan.gc.ca
Marc.Hamel@statcan.gc.ca