A Joint Poll December 2016 Dr Dahlia Scheindlin with Tami Steinmetz Center Dr Khalil Shikaki PSR Methodology Palestinian sample N 1270 adults Facetoface interviews ID: 573778
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Slide1
The Palestinian-Israeli Pulse: A Joint Poll
December 2016
Dr. Dahlia
Scheindlin, with Tami Steinmetz Center Dr. Khalil Shikaki (PSR)Slide2
Methodology
Palestinian sample:
N= 1,270 adults
Face-to-face interviewsWest Bank, East Jerusalem (830) and Gaza Strip (440) in 127 randomly selected locationsDates of interviews: December 8- 10, 2016.
The margin of error: 3%.
N=1,207 adult Israelis interviewed by phone
Israeli sample:
Languages
of interviews: Hebrew, Arabic or Russian
Dates of interviews: December 19 -30, 2016.
Jews inside Israel (727), West Bank settlers (300), Israeli Arabs (180). (Israeli data file weighted to reflect actual proportions in society.)
margin of
error:
3
%
The analysis has
been drafted by Dr. Khalil
Shikaki
, director of PSR, and Dr. Dahlia
Scheindlin
together with the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research and its director, Dr. Ephraim
Lavie
. Slide3
General environment and valuesSlide4
Life conditions – by region
“How are conditions in general in Israel/Palestine these days?” (%, by sector and region)Slide5
“Some of these values clash – which is most important to you? (%, Jews only, time series)
Values: Jews - growing concern for democracySlide6
“Some of these values clash – which is most important to you? (%, West Bank settlers only, time series)
Settlers: rising support for Greater Israel, falling priority of Jewish majority
All Jews: rising priority of democracy: +7 (20% - 27%, June to December), lower priority of peace: -9 (32% - 23%, June to December)Slide7
“Which is the most important vital national goal?” (%, Palestinians)
Palestinian – National goalsSlide8
Attitudes towards two-state solutionSlide9
“Do you support/oppose solution based on establishment of Palestinian state, the two-state solution?” (%, time series)
Recent moderate decline in support for two-state concept-5
-3
-7-7Slide10
“Do you support or oppose a solution based on establ. of Palestinian state, two-state solution?” (%, time series)
Changing support for two-states: all Israelis & PalestiniansSlide11
Israelis: Slight decline in perception of Israeli support for two-states
“Do you think most Israelis support this solution?” (% “most Israelis support”, among Israeli respondents)Slide12
Palestinians: slight decline in perceptions of Palestinian support for two-states
“Do you think most Palestinians support this solution? (% “most Pals support”, among Palestinian respondents)Slide13
Alternatives: Attitudes towards one-state, confederation
“Do you support one equal, democratic state for Isrls/Pals? Do you support an Isrl-Pal confederation?” (% “support”)Slide14
Preferences for negotiation models
“Which do you think is the better model for negotiations?”(%)Slide15
Negotiation formatSlide16
Preferred multi-lateral forums/mediators“Which multi-lateral approach for reviving negotiations is most helpful/least harmful?”(%)Slide17
Consensus: US President Trump pro-Israel“From what you have heard, do you think Trump will be more pro-Israel or more pro-Palestinian?”(%)Slide18
Explaining decline in support: Low trust, low viability, contextual developmentsSlide19
Does the other side want peace?
“Most Palestinians/Israelis want peace – agree or disagree? (%, by nationality – each group asked about other)Slide20
Low confidence that other side seeks peace
“Most Palestinians OR Israelis want peace – agree or disagree? (%, by sector)
*Re: PalestiniansSlide21
Low expectations of implementation
“What are the chances that a Palestinian state will be established in the next 5 years? (% “low+very low”, time series)Slide22
Israeli perceptions of Palestinian support for two-states – low among Jews
“Do you think most Palestinians support this solution? (%, among Israeli respondents – no change from June)Slide23
Slight decline in Palestinian perceptions of Israeli support for two-states
“Do you think most Israelis support this solution? (% “most Israelis support”, among Palestinian respondents)Slide24
Zero –sum thinking: majorities on both sides
“In Isrl/Pal, nothing can be good for both sides - what’s good for one side is bad for the other side?” (%, by sector)Slide25
Policy implicationsOverall situation tolerable for Israeli Jews/not for Isrli Arabs & PalestinianLoss of viability contributes to falling support for two state solutionBut alternatives supported by smaller minoritiesCombination of deteriorating life conditions & low political expectations = despair (could improvement on either front mitigate despair?)Contextual political changes generate shifts in public opinion:Intensified debate over annexation – rise in priority of “Greater Israel” (settlers)Intensified fears re: annexation and loss of Jewish majority – rise in priority of democracy over peace (other Israeli Jews)Rising openness re: connections with Middle East/Arab world (preference for Arab-led negotiations; API incentivesSlide26
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