Presented By Bob Grumbine NWSNCEP Contributors Hendrik Tolman 2 Operational System Attributes System Name Acronym Areal Coverage Horz Res Cycle Freq Fcst Length ID: 792982
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Slide1
1
Agenda Topic:
Sea Ice Modeling
Presented By:
Bob
Grumbine
(
NWS/NCEP)
Contributors:
Hendrik Tolman
Slide22
Operational System Attribute(s)
System Name
Acronym
Areal CoverageHorz ResCycle FreqFcst Length (hr)Sea ice drift modelicedriftArctic25km116dIce concentration analysisiceconc(ant)arctic1/121N/ACFS-v2 ice modelSISGlobal4variousRTOFS-Global ice model (Oct 2015)CICEGlobal1/1218d
SystemAttributesiceconcBlended product mainly using SSMI-(S) data.CFS-v2Using ice concentration analyses as initialization
System Data Assimilation or
Initialization Technique
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Why System(s) are Operational
Primary stakeholders and requirement drivers
Traditionally AK region and OPC. NIC less interested in modeling, more in analysis, this started changing in 2007.
Emerging Arctic service requirements.What products are the models contributing to?Stand-alone products for service centers (concentration).Ice in most weather, wave and ocean models.What product aspects are you trying to improve with your development plans? Going from analysis products to full ice modeling (SUS, CICE, KISS).Weather scale ice predictability.Monthly-seasonal ice outlooks (thaw-out, freeze in).Top 3 System Performance StrengthsIce analyses have been used world wide for 20+ years.Drift model “virtual ice edge” = skillfull ice edge prediction.Top 3 System Performance Challenges Availability of appropriate ice metrics.Ice predictability on short time scales.Ice model issues may limit benefits of global atmosphere – ocean coupling
Slide44
System Evolution
Over the Next 5 Years
Major forcing factors
Emerging requirements for Arctic services.YOPP and PPP.NGGPS and coupled modeling.Science and development prioritiesYOPP / PPP / NGGPS coupled regional Arctic ensemble development (ocean – atmosphere – ice – [waves] )Coupled ice for Lake-effect weather (GLERL-NOS focus)What are you top challenges to evolving the system(s) to meet stakeholder requirements?Science focus on ice physics, not on predictability.On weather time scales, ice edge predictability is abbismal.Predictability at week 2, 1 month, seasonal ?Potential opportunities for simplification going forwardNGGPS coupled experiment on regional model to effectively use resource.Building in NEMS move techniques into unified global modeling system in FY18 and beyond as appropriate.Merging aspects of SIS – CICE – KISS.
Slide55
Top 3 Things You Need
From the UMAC
Ice modeling becomes more essential with focu
s on coupled atmosphere – ocean modeling. Ice needs an advocate to properly resource as it is often seen as a “non-core” requirement for the NWS.Push community effortsPhysical-model based ice products and forecast guidance, away from observational focus. Predictability research to complement ice physics research.Development of appropriate ice metrics.Assessment of ice needs / place in coupled modeling approaches.