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Will Banning ICE Vehicles Reduce Pollution? Will Banning ICE Vehicles Reduce Pollution?

Will Banning ICE Vehicles Reduce Pollution? - PowerPoint Presentation

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Will Banning ICE Vehicles Reduce Pollution? - PPT Presentation

Itsik Sapir 1 Michael Ben Haim 1 and Doron Greenberg 2 1 Department of Mechanical Engineering and Mechatronics Ariel University 2 Department of Economics and Business Administration Ariel ID: 812914

vehicle electric vehicles pollution electric vehicle pollution vehicles ice hybrid air bmw phevs mileage costs average scenario ban market

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Presentation Transcript

Slide1

Will Banning ICE Vehicles Reduce Pollution?

Itsik

Sapir

1

,

Michael Ben Haim

1

and Doron Greenberg

2

1

Department of Mechanical Engineering and Mechatronics, Ariel

University

.

2

Department of Economics and Business Administration, Ariel

University.

Slide2

Outline

Frequent Government Announcements of ICE Proscription

The Small Vehicle Market

Today and the Availability of an Electric Transportation OptionThe Natural Oil Refining producesThe “Ban Scenario” and its OutcomesElectricity Generation Annual Growth Vs. Vehicle Fleet Mileage GrowthExternal Costs of Transportation ICE Vs. EV

Slide3

[1]

Kalghatgi

, G.

T (2015).[2] Yang, Christopher, David McCollum, Ryan McCarthy, and Wayne Leighty. (2009): Government proscription of ICEs in small vehicles is rapidly spreading – from California to India. While such announcements are frequent, the legislation is rare and mostly does not exist. On the other hand, air pollution in densely urban areas cannot be reduced to sufficient levels without significant change in transportation air pollution [1-2 and references within].

Slide4

The small vehicle market today

21 fully electric vehicles (EV) and 28 plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs),

were examined. We have found the following:

Slide5

The small vehicle market today

Vehicle type / model

mileage

kmRenault Twizy 62100Citroen C-Zero 93150

Peugeot iOn

93

150

Volkswagen e-Up

99

159

Smart EQ

99

159

Volkswagen e-Golf

144

232

Morgan EV3

150

241

Kia Soul EV

155

249

Nissan e-NV200 Combi

174

280

Hyundai Ioniq Electric

174

280

BMW i3 42kwh

225

362

Nissan Leaf 40kWh

235

378

Renault Zoe R110 ZE 40

250

402

Mercedes-Benz EQC400 80kWh

280

451

DS 3 Crossback E-Tense

280

451

Audi E-tron 95kWh

300

483

Jaguar I-Pace

336

541

Tesla Model X P100D

336

541

Hyundai Kona Electric 64kWh

339

546

Kia e-Niro 64kWh

339

546

Tesla Model S 100D Dual Motor AWD

393

632

Average

216.95

349.14

RMS

101.33

163.07

Slide6

Vehicle type / model

mileage

km

Mercedes C350 Plug-in Hybrid914MINI Cooper S E Countryman ALL41016BMW 740e xDrive Plug-In Hybrid

14

23

BMW 330e

14

23

BMW X5 xdrive40e

14

23

BMW i8

15

24

BMW 530e

16

26

Audi A3 e-Tron

16

26

Volvo XC90 T8

17

27

Volvo XC60 T8

18

29

Subaru Crosstrek

20

32

Ford C-Max Energi

20

32

Ford Fusion Energi

21

34

Mitsubishi Outlander

22

35

Toyota Prius Prime

25

40

Kia niro

26

42

Porsche Cayenne S E-Hybrid

27

43

Hyundai Sonata

27

43

Hyundai Ioniq

29

47

Kia Optima

30

48

Mercedes S560

31

50

Cadillac CT6 

33

53

Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid

37

60

Karma Revero

47

76

Honda Clarity Plug-In Hybrid

53

85

Chevrolet Volt

97

156

BMW i3s REx

97

156

BMW i3 REx

97

156

Average

31.50

50.69

RMS

25.26

40.65

Slide7

There is a wide

range of fully electric vehicles (EV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs

).

For EV we have found an average range of 349 km with RMS of 163 km, and for PHEVs we have found an average range of electric propulsion of 50 km with RMS of 40 km.

Slide8

Hence, the availability of an electric transportation option

for metropolises

already exists.

Therefore, there is a great probability that EVs or PHEVs will soon take over the small vehicle sector.

Slide9

Every unit mass of natural oil used for refining

produces(*) about:

45

% of gasoline25% of diesel9% jet fueland other products such as asphalt, lubricants, heavy fuels, etc. *while using cracking options available

today

Slide10

If there will be a dramatic

reduction of gasoline consumption in those countries that will ban ICEs from operating in metropolises or ICE imports and production (referred to as "ban scenario

"), this

will lead to two main outcomes: Lower price of gasoline fuel Higher price of every other product of oil refining.The reasons are rather simple concepts of supply and demand.

Slide11

One more obvious outcome in this "ban scenario" is that the total mileage of the vehicle fleet will continue to grow as before due to modern lifestyles

.

Therefore

, the energy supply source to the vehicle fleet should grow to meet the increasing demand. While electricity generation annual growth rate is under 0.3% for North America, the vehicle fleet mileage has grown by 2.2% per year.

Slide12

E

lectric

power plants will consume more of their energy source

in the optimistic scenario that vehicle charging will occur mostly at low electricity consumption times (usually midnight till sunrise), or will have to expand peak production rate in the pessimistic scenario that vehicle charging will occur at all times of the day and night. In both of these cases, power plants will consume more of their energy source and increase the demand for it.

Slide13

In this

talk

we will assess the impact of those suggested regulations

and scenarios on the fuel market, and offer some solutions that will keep the market as stable as possible – even if the "ban scenario" or high market penetration of EV will ever occur.

Slide14

First we

will assess the impact of "ban scenario“ on cost of air

pollution by

using "Update of the handbook on external costs of transport." DG MOVE (2014). We used an average constant

as car gasoline (petrol) for all engine sizes and for urban and suburban roads (metropolises; APC = Air Pollution

Costs)

 

Slide15

For PHEVs, we used 2 different constants:

Where

is the Air Pollution Costs for electric propulsion

only, while electricity is produced in a power plant which has 80% efficiency, 90% efficiency for electric delivery, 85% efficiency of battery charging, and 95% efficiency of EV engine. Hence,

 

 

Slide16

is valid only for the first

50

km, since the average range of electric propulsion for PHEVs only was found to be 50 km. For the range above 50 km, we estimated to be 30% less than the ICE APC (), since hybrid vehicle fuel consumption is 30% lower than ICE in the same conditions. Hence,

 

 

Slide17

Air pollution costs of vehicles by mileage: Option 1 ICE; Option 2 PHEV initially only electric till 70 km, and then Hybrid mode; Option 3 EV.

Slide18

1

. Penetration rate of EVs and PHEVs should be further encouraged taking into account the dramatic possible reduction in air pollution costs and public

health

.Our recommendations for policymakers

Slide19

2. The electricity generation growth rate should be enlarged to cope at least with the mileage growth rate.

Our recommendations for policymakers

Slide20

3. Charging of vehicles should be monitored and regulated to be carried out at low electric consumption times to avoid high electric power peaks.

Our recommendations for policymakers

Slide21

4. Gasoline price reduction as a high probability scenario should translate into carefully monitored and regulated production rates (and import rates) of gasoline to allow for reduction of air pollution costs.

Our recommendations for policymakers

Slide22

Will Banning ICE Vehicles Reduce Pollution?

Itsik

Sapir

1, Michael Ben Haim1 and Doron Greenberg21 Department of Mechanical Engineering and Mechatronics, Ariel University.2 Department of Economics and Business Administration, Ariel University.