4th Edition Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics,

Transcript:4th Edition Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics,:
4th Edition Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning A. J. Veal COMPLEMENTARY TEACHING MATERIALS CABI TOURISM TEXTS CHAPTER 13 Planning Tool 4: Forecasting Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th Edition Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts Outline Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts Introduction Forecasting what? Change factors The past of the future Forecasting techniques The past of the future: a brief history of leisure, sport and tourism forecasting 1962: US Outdoor Recreation Resources Review Commission: quantitative modelling of demand Leisure/sport demand forecasting generally undertaken by academics + private sector Tourism forecasting (international) often sponsored by government agencies often proved wrong because of significant international events, such as 9/11 and Global Financial Crisis Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts Forecasting what? Types of demand (Table 13.1) Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts Demand change factors Demography Income Supply: the activities of producers Leisure time and work time Transport Technology The environment, including climate change Changing tastes and lifestyles Changing attitudes and values The media Post-industrialism, postmodernism and globalization Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts 1. Demography Demographic change: UK, 2014–34 Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts Fig. 13.1 2. Income Trends in household expenditure, UK, 1995–2006 Fig. 13.2 Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts Leisure responding to financial crisis: Australian arts attendances (Fig. 13.3) Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts 3. Supply: activities of producers ‘Supply’ side of the demand–supply relationship Suppler actions have some effect on activity Public campaigns, e.g. ‘Sport for All’, ‘Life. Be in it’ Provision of facilities – e.g. 2000+ indoor leisure centres in UK; cheap airlines Note also: the role of media, communications, critics and ‘culture brokers’ between producers and consumers The idea of ‘multi-purpose platforms’ Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts 5. Transport: leisure travel, UK, 1995–2012 (Fig. 13.4) Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts 7. Environment/climate change Leisure