4th Edition Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics,
Description: 4th Edition Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning A. J. Veal COMPLEMENTARY TEACHING MATERIALS CABI TOURISM TEXTS CHAPTER 13 Planning Tool 4: Forecasting Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th
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slide1. 4th Edition Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning A. J. Veal COMPLEMENTARY TEACHING MATERIALS CABI TOURISM TEXTS<br>
slide2. CHAPTER 13 Planning Tool 4: Forecasting Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th Edition Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide3. Outline Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts Introduction Forecasting what? Change factors The past of the future Forecasting techniques<br>
slide4. The past of the future: a brief history of leisure, sport and tourism forecasting 1962: US Outdoor Recreation Resources Review Commission: quantitative modelling of demand
Leisure/sport demand forecasting generally undertaken by academics + private sector
Tourism forecasting (international) often sponsored by government agencies
often proved wrong because of significant international events, such as 9/11 and Global Financial Crisis Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide5. Forecasting what? Types of demand (Table 13.1) Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide6. Demand change factors Demography
Income
Supply: the activities of producers
Leisure time and work time
Transport
Technology
The environment, including climate change
Changing tastes and lifestyles
Changing attitudes and values
The media
Post-industrialism, postmodernism and globalization Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide7. 1. Demography Demographic change: UK, 2014–34 Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts Fig. 13.1<br>
slide8. 2. Income Trends in household expenditure, UK, 1995–2006 Fig. 13.2 Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide9. Leisure responding to financial crisis: Australian arts attendances (Fig. 13.3) Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide10. 3. Supply: activities of producers ‘Supply’ side of the demand–supply relationship
Suppler actions have some effect on activity
Public campaigns, e.g. ‘Sport for All’, ‘Life. Be in it’
Provision of facilities – e.g. 2000+ indoor leisure centres in UK; cheap airlines
Note also: the role of media, communications, critics and ‘culture brokers’ between producers and consumers
The idea of ‘multi-purpose platforms’ Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide11. 5. Transport: leisure travel, UK, 1995–2012 (Fig. 13.4) Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide12. 7. Environment/climate change Leisure activities have an impact on the environment, e.g.:
golf courses require water
pedestrians compact soil, which can cause run-off /erosion
hotels/resorts generate sewage and litter
all take land that may be habitat for wildlife
Climate change: most identified research focuses on impacts/adaptation Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide13. Climate change (Box 13.1) World Tourism Organization Davos Declaration: www.unwto.org/climate/support/en/support.php
Research:
McEvoy et al.:
coastal dune system with recreation: increased visitor numbers and pressures
Peak District National Park: more fires
Lake District: footpath erosion and loss of snow cover
Manchester city centre: more demand for outdoor living
Scott and Jones
Golf: in Toronto: increased demand + longer season
McBoyle et al.:
snowmobiling in Canada: reduction in the length of season, possibly to zero for some areas Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide14. Forecasting techniques Informed speculation
Asking the public
Asking the experts (the Delphi technique)
Scenario writing
Time series analysis
Spatial analysis
Cross-sectional analysis
Comparative analysis
Composite methods Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide15. 1. Informed speculation Personal reflections on the future of (informed?) commentators, e.g. on the amount of work and leisure in future
Typically in final chapters of books
No specific methodology Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide16. 2. Asking the public Some surveys include questions asking people what leisure/ tourism activities they would like to, or plan to, take up.
But does it work?
Example: Australian 1991 survey (Box 13.2):
asked people what activities they would like to take up
most popular responses:
(men) golf 7% fishing 7%; (women) tennis 5% aerobics/keep fit 5%
Recent Australian surveys show aerobics/keep fit  but tennis, golf, fishing 
Why?
Surveys show greatest claimed constraint on participation is ‘lack of time’. Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide17. 3. Asking the experts: Delphi technique Named after classical Greek Delphic Oracle who foretold people’s futures
A method for finding consensus among experts
A list/panel of experts is identified
Can be conducted face-to-face, but more usually by mail/email
First round: experts asked to give opinions on future events in their field – likelihood, timing etc.
Results of first round are collated and circulated – experts may revise their estimates
May go to additional rounds
See Box 13.3 for examples Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide18. 4. Scenario writing Devising alternative pictures of the future based on key variables, e.g. economic/political (Fig. 13.5) Conservative government Leftist government Low unemployment High unemployment Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D Scenario A Implications for leisure/sport/ tourism worked out for each scenario Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide19. 5. Time series analysis Continuation of past trends: depends on availability of time-series data, e.g. gambling expenditure in Australia, 1981–2005 Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide20. 6. Spatial analysis See Box 12.2 + Clawson method in Ch. 14
Quantitative modelling (see Box 13.4) Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide21. 7. Cross-sectional analysis Analysis of variation of leisure participation within – or across – the population
As the structure of the population changes (e.g. ageing), so will overall participation.
Two methods:
a. cohort
b. regression equation Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide22. a. Cohort method Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide23. b. Regression-based techniques Example:
P = a + bVAR1 + cVAR2 +dVAR3 etc.
Where:
P = participation
VAR1, VAR2, VAR3 etc. are independent, influencing variables
a, b, c etc. coefficients determined by the analysis
forecasts of VAR1, VAR2, VAR3 etc. provide forecasts of P Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide24. 8. Comparative method The idea that a version of the future can be seen in other, more economically developed, countries – Dumazedier
Similarly, John Naisbitt (Megatrends) identified ‘bell-weather’ states in USA, which are in advance of the other states in terms of lifestyles/consumption. Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide25. 9. Composite approaches More than one methodology is often used in forecasting exercises, e.g.:
Kelly and Warnick, in Recreation Trends and Markets (1999), use a combination of methods:
cross-sectional (cohort) and
time-series analysis Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide2. CHAPTER 13 Planning Tool 4: Forecasting Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th Edition Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide3. Outline Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts Introduction Forecasting what? Change factors The past of the future Forecasting techniques<br>
slide4. The past of the future: a brief history of leisure, sport and tourism forecasting 1962: US Outdoor Recreation Resources Review Commission: quantitative modelling of demand
Leisure/sport demand forecasting generally undertaken by academics + private sector
Tourism forecasting (international) often sponsored by government agencies
often proved wrong because of significant international events, such as 9/11 and Global Financial Crisis Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide5. Forecasting what? Types of demand (Table 13.1) Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide6. Demand change factors Demography
Income
Supply: the activities of producers
Leisure time and work time
Transport
Technology
The environment, including climate change
Changing tastes and lifestyles
Changing attitudes and values
The media
Post-industrialism, postmodernism and globalization Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide7. 1. Demography Demographic change: UK, 2014–34 Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts Fig. 13.1<br>
slide8. 2. Income Trends in household expenditure, UK, 1995–2006 Fig. 13.2 Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide9. Leisure responding to financial crisis: Australian arts attendances (Fig. 13.3) Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide10. 3. Supply: activities of producers ‘Supply’ side of the demand–supply relationship
Suppler actions have some effect on activity
Public campaigns, e.g. ‘Sport for All’, ‘Life. Be in it’
Provision of facilities – e.g. 2000+ indoor leisure centres in UK; cheap airlines
Note also: the role of media, communications, critics and ‘culture brokers’ between producers and consumers
The idea of ‘multi-purpose platforms’ Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide11. 5. Transport: leisure travel, UK, 1995–2012 (Fig. 13.4) Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide12. 7. Environment/climate change Leisure activities have an impact on the environment, e.g.:
golf courses require water
pedestrians compact soil, which can cause run-off /erosion
hotels/resorts generate sewage and litter
all take land that may be habitat for wildlife
Climate change: most identified research focuses on impacts/adaptation Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide13. Climate change (Box 13.1) World Tourism Organization Davos Declaration: www.unwto.org/climate/support/en/support.php
Research:
McEvoy et al.:
coastal dune system with recreation: increased visitor numbers and pressures
Peak District National Park: more fires
Lake District: footpath erosion and loss of snow cover
Manchester city centre: more demand for outdoor living
Scott and Jones
Golf: in Toronto: increased demand + longer season
McBoyle et al.:
snowmobiling in Canada: reduction in the length of season, possibly to zero for some areas Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide14. Forecasting techniques Informed speculation
Asking the public
Asking the experts (the Delphi technique)
Scenario writing
Time series analysis
Spatial analysis
Cross-sectional analysis
Comparative analysis
Composite methods Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide15. 1. Informed speculation Personal reflections on the future of (informed?) commentators, e.g. on the amount of work and leisure in future
Typically in final chapters of books
No specific methodology Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide16. 2. Asking the public Some surveys include questions asking people what leisure/ tourism activities they would like to, or plan to, take up.
But does it work?
Example: Australian 1991 survey (Box 13.2):
asked people what activities they would like to take up
most popular responses:
(men) golf 7% fishing 7%; (women) tennis 5% aerobics/keep fit 5%
Recent Australian surveys show aerobics/keep fit  but tennis, golf, fishing 
Why?
Surveys show greatest claimed constraint on participation is ‘lack of time’. Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide17. 3. Asking the experts: Delphi technique Named after classical Greek Delphic Oracle who foretold people’s futures
A method for finding consensus among experts
A list/panel of experts is identified
Can be conducted face-to-face, but more usually by mail/email
First round: experts asked to give opinions on future events in their field – likelihood, timing etc.
Results of first round are collated and circulated – experts may revise their estimates
May go to additional rounds
See Box 13.3 for examples Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide18. 4. Scenario writing Devising alternative pictures of the future based on key variables, e.g. economic/political (Fig. 13.5) Conservative government Leftist government Low unemployment High unemployment Scenario B Scenario C Scenario D Scenario A Implications for leisure/sport/ tourism worked out for each scenario Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide19. 5. Time series analysis Continuation of past trends: depends on availability of time-series data, e.g. gambling expenditure in Australia, 1981–2005 Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide20. 6. Spatial analysis See Box 12.2 + Clawson method in Ch. 14
Quantitative modelling (see Box 13.4) Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide21. 7. Cross-sectional analysis Analysis of variation of leisure participation within – or across – the population
As the structure of the population changes (e.g. ageing), so will overall participation.
Two methods:
a. cohort
b. regression equation Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide22. a. Cohort method Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide23. b. Regression-based techniques Example:
P = a + bVAR1 + cVAR2 +dVAR3 etc.
Where:
P = participation
VAR1, VAR2, VAR3 etc. are independent, influencing variables
a, b, c etc. coefficients determined by the analysis
forecasts of VAR1, VAR2, VAR3 etc. provide forecasts of P Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide24. 8. Comparative method The idea that a version of the future can be seen in other, more economically developed, countries – Dumazedier
Similarly, John Naisbitt (Megatrends) identified ‘bell-weather’ states in USA, which are in advance of the other states in terms of lifestyles/consumption. Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>
slide25. 9. Composite approaches More than one methodology is often used in forecasting exercises, e.g.:
Kelly and Warnick, in Recreation Trends and Markets (1999), use a combination of methods:
cross-sectional (cohort) and
time-series analysis Leisure, Sport and Tourism, Politics, Policy and Planning, 4th edition, Veal, 2017, CABI Tourism Texts<br>