A New Crew, Falling Rates, Old Questions and New
Author : trish-goza | Published Date : 2025-08-16
Description: A New Crew Falling Rates Old Questions and New Challenges Inland Northwest Partners October 29 2024 Spokane Valley Washington John W Mitchell Late October Halfway Through Year Five Not The Election We Thought in JuneA summer to Tell
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Transcript:A New Crew, Falling Rates, Old Questions and New:
A New Crew, Falling Rates, Old Questions and New Challenges Inland Northwest Partners October 29, 2024 Spokane Valley, Washington John W. Mitchell Late October Halfway Through Year Five Not The Election We Thought in June-A summer to Tell Grandchildren About Three Wars that We are Involved In First Rate Cut Since March of 2020-Another Next Week? S&P 500 up 23.14% YTD 10/18/24 Including Dividends Election Year Rhetoric-Promises, Charges, Messaging, Raised Voices and Reminders that Social Media and E-mails, and College Op-Eds Live Forever Gun Free, Smoke Free, Drug Free Zones-Now Economics Free Interval 49 States Up on Year Over Year Basis Short Christmas Shopping Season-Last K Mart Closed No Landing Yet! YouGov Poll 39% Believe we are in Recession (Economist 10/18) GDP Contributions to Growth Source:BEA Contributions To Growth of 3% in Q2 2024 (SAAR) Consumption % Points Goods .63 Services 1.27 Inventory Change Large Swing Federal Government Swing –Defense .32% Points Rising Real After Tax Income, Upward Revisions to Income, Savings, Q2 Net Worth up $2.7 Tr, Q1 $5.66 Tr Employment 54 Months Up and 1 Down Since May 2020 September 2024 254,000 Net Job Gain-July and August revised up by 77,000 Unemployment at 4.1% up From 3.5% Over the Year Participation Rate 62.7% Versus 63.3% February 2020 September 150,000 Gain in Labor Force Beige Book 10/23/24-little change, less wage pressure, Labor Availability Improved, Price Sensitivity Increasing, SE Weather Impacts JOLTS August 8 Million Openings- up 330,000 over the month and down 1.3 million over the year Quit rate at 1.9% in April 2022 3% 1.2 Vacancies per Unemployed Person National View September 13 States 3% or Under in September -South Dakota at 2, Vermont at 2.2%, North Dakota at 2.3% Nevada at 5.6% Highest Idaho 3.6%, Washington 4.8% Revisions will lower employment estimates 4/23-3/24 by about 818,000-details in early 2025 taking average monthly gain from 246,000 per month Strikes, Hurricanes will Impact October Job Reports Wage Growth Arrow Switchers Confluence, Progress & Persistence Recovery, Pandemic Distortions on Demand and Supply, War, Policy Strong Demand and Constrained Supply CPI September 2.4% Core 3.3% PCE August 2.2% Core 2.7% Year Over Year Source BLS 1 Month Change SA New Experience for People Under 55-Old Memories-Unsettling- Measurement Issues-Disconnect Price level Feb. 2020 to September 2024- CPI up 21.9% Food at home up 26.1% 2/20 to 9/24 Shelter 24.6% Rental Equivalence-This is a number that people never pay Gasoline 2/20-9/24 31.4% in
