Grappling with Post Ebola recovery and reconstruction Applying the formula for a post natural or man-made crises, to the hardest-hit countries of the MRU is fraught with risk. Drawing from the case of SL the presentation examines some of
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Presentation Transcript
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Grappling with Post Ebola recovery and reconstruction Applying the formula for a post natural or man-made crises, to the hardest-hit countries of the MRU is fraught with risk. Drawing from the case of SL the presentation examines some of the underlying forces that explain some policy dilemmas on the road to recovery/reconstruction. The aim is to encourage research and debate in support of the countries efforts and hope that there may be lessons for other countries<br>
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Grappling with post Ebola Introduction (pledging conf plus)
Background and historical trends (Structural features of pre Ebola economy in earlier presentations)
Ebola’s passage; effects, flaws and opportunities revealed
Mitigating effects of Ebola dividend
Effects of parallel shocks ( price fall in major exports and increasing political tensions)
Policy dilemmas
A research agenda for the way forward<br>
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Grappling with post Ebola Background, trends, and structure of the economy
Data on GDP growth/ investment and public debt trends
Relative market size, structure of production
Contents of the “boom” – a few large investments / construction/ services
Major bottlenecks: energy/ infrastructure/public service delivery/ corruption / education levels<br>
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The Economy Before the Ebola<br>
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Grappling with post Ebola Ebola’s passage:
Humanitarian, economic (direct and indirect), administration,
Repercussions on the sub region- trade, tourism etc
Weaknesses revealed. Health systems, public administration (service delivery, coordination, impunity, corruption and capacity).
Opportunities: regional collaboration, public and private sector ties, policy reforms (decentralisation)
Health status: widespread resort to self cure or quacks. Effects on maternal and child mortality unknown so far
Control measures affect trade and livelihoods<br>
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Grappling with post Ebola Mitigating effects of the Ebola dividend
Employment,(28K on hazard pay) enhancement of civic responsibilty, infusion of work ethics and general unifying mode among population
International support: +ve even if slow; public debt, relaxation of expenditure limits, boost of tourism - hotels went from 10 – 20 % occupancy to 80% at height of epidemic.<br>
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Grappling with post Ebola Parallel Shock
The quiet shock; fall in prices of iron ore gold and oil.
Public revenues – projection of $180m but actual $40m, other tax revenues dramatic decline
Small scale industries: - support enterprises close, fal in employment for urban workers (dangers of LC & mining)
The investment climate: False boom of expections from oil. Fall from a high of almost $1b in 2011 - $100 in 2014.<br>
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Grappling with post Ebola Policy challenges accentuated by twin shocks of Ebola and price falls.
Exposed fragility and vulnerabilty are alarm bells: response?
how to build back better on current system?
How to deal with governance and capacity issues at this time of weakness?
What are the options for true diversification?
How to pursue regional collaboration through private sector<br>
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Grappling with post Ebola Areas for research
The search for appropriate low cost health systems (Cuba …)
Promoting diversification – easier said than done
Growth triangles and private sector-led growth
Enhancing public service delivery
Poltical economy of decentralisation (change in power politics…)<br>
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Conclusions The failure to contain the disease and the simultaneous fall in commodity prices exposed the fragility of the sub region and its vulnerability to shocks of various types. As the sub region staggers towards the recovery road, it is essential to give adequate attention to the sources of vulnerability otherwise another threat could occur and this time with more disastrous consequences for the world.
The epidemic has thrown the spotlight on the interdependence of the globalized world and how incidents in far-away places can threaten and even wreck the achievements elsewhere irrespective of the levels of development..<br>
