Applying the formula for a post natural or manmade crises to the hardesthit countries of the MRU is fraught with risk Drawing from the case of SL the presentation examines some of the ID: 298591
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Slide1
Grappling with Post Ebola recovery and reconstruction
Applying the
formula for a post
natural or man-made
crises,
to the hardest-hit countries of the MRU is fraught with risk.
Drawing from
the case of SL the presentation
examines
some of the
underlying forces that explain some
policy dilemmas on the road to
recovery/reconstruction
. The aim is to encourage research
and
debate in support of the countries
efforts and
hope that there may be lessons for other countries Slide2
Grappling with post Ebola
Introduction (pledging
conf
plus)
Background and historical trends (Structural features of pre Ebola
economy in earlier presentations)
Ebola’s passage; effects, flaws and opportunities revealed
Mitigating effects of Ebola dividend
E
ffects
of parallel shocks ( price fall in major exports and increasing political tensions)
Policy dilemmas
A research agenda for the way forwardSlide3
Grappling with post Ebola
Background, trends, and structure of the economy
Data on
GDP growth/ investment and public debt trends
R
elative
market size, structure of production
Contents
of the “boom
” – a few large investments / construction/ services
Major bottlenecks: energy/ infrastructure/public service delivery/ corruption / education levelsSlide4Slide5
The Economy Before the Ebola Slide6
Grappling with post Ebola
Ebola’s passage:
Humanitarian, economic (direct and indirect), administration,
Repercussions on the sub region- trade, tourism
etc
Weaknesses
revealed. Health systems, public administration (service delivery, coordination, impunity, corruption and capacity).
Opportunities:
regional
collaboration,
public and private
sector ties,
policy reforms (
decentralisation
)
Health
status:
widespread resort to self cure
or
quacks. Effects on maternal and child mortality unknown so far
Control measures
affect
trade and livelihoods Slide7
Grappling with post Ebola
Mitigating effects of the Ebola dividend
Employment,(28K on hazard pay)
enhancement of civic
responsibilty
, infusion of work ethics and general unifying mode among
population
I
nternational support: +
ve
even if slow; public debt, relaxation of expenditure limits,
boost
of
tourism -
hotels went from 10 – 20 % occupancy to 80% at height of epidemic.Slide8
Grappling with post Ebola
Parallel Shock
The
quiet shock; fall in prices of iron ore gold and oil.
Public
revenues – projection of $180m but actual $40m, other tax revenues dramatic decline
Small
scale
industries:
- support enterprises close,
fal
in employment for urban workers (dangers of LC & mining)
The
investment climate: False boom of
expections
from oil. Fall from a high of almost $1b in 2011 - $100 in 2014.Slide9
Grappling with post Ebola
Policy challenges accentuated by twin shocks of Ebola and price falls.
Exposed fragility and
vulnerabilty
are alarm bells: response?
how to build back better on current system?
How to deal with governance and capacity issues
at this
time of weakness?
What are the options for true
diversification?
How to pursue regional collaboration
through
private sectorSlide10
Grappling with post Ebola
Areas for research
The search for a
ppropriate
low cost health systems (Cuba …)
Promoting
diversification – easier said than done
Growth triangles and private sector-led growth
Enhancing public service
delivery
Poltical
economy of
decentralisation
(change in power politics…)Slide11
Conclusions
The failure to contain the disease and the simultaneous fall in commodity prices exposed the fragility of the sub region and its vulnerability to shocks of various types. As the sub region staggers towards the recovery road, it is essential
to give
adequate
attention
to the sources of vulnerability otherwise
another threat could occur and this time with more disastrous consequences for the
world.
The epidemic has thrown the spotlight on the interdependence of the globalized world and how incidents in far-away places can threaten and even wreck the achievements
elsewhere irrespective of the levels of development.
.