How Will the New Presidential Administration

Transcript:How Will the New Presidential Administration:
How Will the New Presidential Administration Impact International Law? Edward C. Harris Assistant Dean & Associate Professor Chicago-Kent College of Law Who knows!!??? We are just over a month into the new administration… all very speculative right now. But: We know who Donald Trump is; We have campaign statements and promises; We have statements and actions from the transition period and in these first couple of weeks An Overwhelming Topic Difficult to separate law and policy, and legal and practical implications… My focus will be on three main areas: International Trade (aspects different from those discussed by my co-panelist, Dr. Nolt) Immigration Conflicts of interest International Trade The President made “terrible” U.S. trade deals a centerpiece of his campaign for office. And, the President has broad authority on trade. Some “Trump on Trade” specifics: Scrapping of the TPP; (E.O. Jan. 23rd) Renegotiate NAFTA or shred it; Proposal to reorganize trade-related aspects of federal agencies into a single office within the Dept. of Commerce International Trade “Trump on Trade” (con’t) The possibility of lifting sanctions on Russia; The possibility of imposing a broad regime of tariffs on China (or other counties which the President views as “unfair” trading partners) Questions on whether the administration will respect and use multilateral trade orgs, e.g., WTO; Potential for “Buy American” regulations for government projects; International Trade “Trump on Trade” (con’t) Apparently, the President is friendly to foreign investment in the U.S., and U.S. companies investing abroad; The President’s clear favor for bilateral trade relations over the larger more comprehensive multilateral deals. International Trade The above items show a pretty radical departure from a world trade system that has been developing since the end of WWII. The world has been on a consistent trajectory since after WWII to reduce tariffs, reduce NTBs, open markets, standardize trade rules, and institutionalize mechanisms for dealing with trade matters (e.g., disputes). Theory: Increase Int’l Economic Development = Increase Global Peace and Stability International Trade Can it fairly be said that Trump is “anti-trade.” He (must?) recognize the importance of at least: Exports Attracting foreign investment Capital flows in international financial markets According to the administration’s statements, the strategy appears to be aimed at improving the U.S. position in int’l trade. International Trade The administration’s stance seems to suggest that putting the breaks on the more comprehensive “free trade” pacts is the way to improve the American position in international