The Pulse of Progress Conference Conflict and

Transcript:The Pulse of Progress Conference Conflict and:
The Pulse of Progress Conference Conflict and Displacement December 17, 2024 What do we know about Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations (FCS)? Many people living in FCS: 13 percent. Worsening situation: double. Persistence: Half of the FCS countries. Extreme poverty: 40 percent. A combination of urgent needs and lack of evidence! 1 But, is evidence alone sufficient? Relevance is key! 2 Two areas of interest What are the new insights? How can policymakers use these findings? 3 Measuring child mortality from mobile phone surveys in countries facing security challenges: an assessment in Burkina Faso 4 New insights: A significant increase in mortality rates in regions affected by security issues A contrast with the DHS data. Relevance to policymakers: Understanding of progress in reducing child mortality in Burkina Faso, Shifting policy priorities and investment strategies. Technical discussion: Statistical power Sampling weights Near-real-time welfare and livelihood impacts of an active war: Evidence from Ethiopia 5 New insights: Magnitude of the impacts of the conflict on households’ food security. Relevance to policymakers: Inform post-conflict recovery? Technical discussion: Seasonality Sampling weights The impact of shocks on forcibly displaced populations in LMICs 6 New insights: Vulnerability differences between displaced and non-displaced populations Relevance to policymakers: Targeted interventions? Technical discussion: Comparability between HFPS and surveys on FDPs Business amid chaos: How Ukraine’s firms suffered and adapted since the 2022 invasion. 7 New insights: Novel data sources Large firms and firms with exports tied to the West have recovered better. Relevance to policymakers: Access to finance? Technical discussion: Excellent tools for monitoring Limitations in addressing the “Why’s”