CATALOGUE OF CYCLES COMMODITY PRICES 40 MONTH CYCLE DIVIDEND YIELDS ZIPFS LAW ONE BASE CYCLE TWO TREND CYCLE THREE TERMINAL CYCLE TRIADS THE WEB IS A BOW TIE 1 0 2 3 A B C 0 17 ID: 1021461
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1. ADVANCED MOMENTUM
2. WORLD DOMINANCE
3. CATALOGUE OF CYCLES
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12. COMMODITY PRICES
13. 40 MONTH CYCLE
14. DIVIDEND YIELDS
15. ZIPF’S LAW
16. ONEBASE CYCLETWOTREND CYCLETHREETERMINAL CYCLETRIADS
17. THE WEB IS A BOW TIE
18. 1023ABC0%17%33%50%67%83%100%1/62/63/64/65/6WHERE ARE WE?
19. RESEARCHERPERIOD (YEARS)AVERAGERELATIONSHIPSKITCHEN3 T0 53.33 JUGLAR7 TO 11103*KITCHENKUZNETS20 TO 25 BERRY25 TO 35303*JUGLAR/9*KITCHENKONDRATYEV45 TO 60 STRAUSS AND HOWE85 TO 99903*BERRY/9*JUGLARRELATIONSHIP - ECONOMIC CYCLES
20. 3 YEARSMINIMUM EXCITABILITYFear TolerancePassivenessLack of unity2 YEARSEXCITABILITYGROWS3 YEARSMAXIMUM EXCITABILITYRIOTS4 YEARSDECREASEINEXCITABILITYINERTAPATHETICCRY FOR PEACEHUMAN EXCITABILITY CYCLE – A J TCHIJEVSKY
21. FAITHDEPOSITS9 YRS9 YRS9 YRSFAITH AND BANK DEPOSIT CYCLES
22. VOLATILITY - VIX
23. MUTUAL FUNDS CASH/ASSET RATIO
24. EARLYECONOMICCYCLEMIDDLE ECONOMICCYCLELATEECONOMICCYCLEREDEFINING SECTOR ROTATION
25. REDEFINING SECTOR ROTATION
26. THE 9.6 YEAR CYCLENumber of Atlantic SalmonAbundance of snowshoe rabbits in CanadaHeart Diseases in Northwestern USGrasshopper outbreakPine cones are plentiful in cyclePeople join churches in cyclesWomen are amorous in cyclesSunspots erupt in greater numbers in cyclesPoets are more creative in cyclesWeather fluctuates in cyclesInternational battles fluctuation in cyclesStocks and indices fluctuate in cyclesREGULARITY IMPLIES PREDICTABILITYSpeculation and War - ERD
27. Murder, 6PM-6AM, High Jul and AugBurglary, 6PM-2AM, Saturday night, Dec/Jan/FebThe most uncriminal month of all – MayBut more dog bitesJun is peak month for suicidesAdmission to mental hospitalsAlso peak month for marriagesThe number of earthquakes fluctuate in cyclesReal estate activities fluctuate in cyclesMale emotionIndustrial accidentsAdvertising effectiveness fluctuates in cyclesEven political landslide and number of infants born per daySCIENCE WITHOUT CYCLES IS INCOMPLETE- ERD
28. MOMENTUMCONVENTIONAL AND NON CONVENTIONAL TECHNICQUES OF FORECASTING
29. CONCEPT - THE BASIC PREMISEMOMENTUM – DEFINITIONBASIC MOMENTUM RULESCHARACTERISTICS – VOLATILITIES/ EXTREMES/DIVERGENCESINTERPRETATION - SIGNALSCLASSIFICATION - BANDED/NON BANDEDCONSTRUCTION - SPECIFICATIONSMISCONCEPTIONS - 0 TO 100CYCLICALITY - OSCILLATORPERIODICITY - DEFAULT/GENERATEDSETUPS - MAC2/STOCH2/R3/COMPOSITEPRICE PROJECTIONS USING RSI - POSITIVE N NEGATIVE REVERSALS/RE-ENGINEERINGSUMMARY- MOMENTUM GRID
30. CONCEPT - THE BASIC PREMISECONVENTIONALISMTREND DETERMINATION CONCERNS PRICE/TRENDLINES/PRICE PATTERNS AND MOVING AVERAGESTHOUGH USEFUL, TREND IDENTIFICATION HAPPENS AFTER THE TREND CHANGE TAKES PLACEMOMENTUM ON THE OTHER HAND WARNS OF LATENT STRENGTH/WEAKNESS OFTEN WELL AHEAD OF THE TURNRULE – MOMENTUM ANALYSIS SHOULD BE USED IN CONJUNCTION WITH TREND REVERSAL SIGNAL FROM PRICEOSCILLATOR USAGE IN CONJUNCTION OF TREND“SKILL OF JUGEMENT AND INTEPRETATION MARK THE LINE IN THE SAND THAT SEPERATES THE RETAIL TRADER FROM THE PROFESSIONAL” – CONSTANCE BROWNNON CONVENTIONALVOLATILITY COMES FROM INDEPENDENT MASS OF RETAIL TRADERSLONG LIST OF INDICATORS AVAILABLE OVERWHELMTHIS LEADS TO INDICATOR FAILURE AND CAPITAL EROSIONHOW TO AVOID THIS AND USE FOR ADVANTAGE?INDICATORS FOR TRENDING MARKETS LIKE MOVING AVERAGESAND THEN INDICATORS FOR NON TRENDING MARKETS SUCH AS OSCILLATORS ARE NOW OUTDATED
31. MOMENTUM – DEFINITIONVELOCITY OF A PRICE TRENDACCELERATION OR DEACCELERATIONMOMENTUM A MISNOMER, AS IT’S A GENERIC TERMA FLUCTUATING LINE THAT IS CONTINUALLY OSCILLATING FROM ONE EXTREME TO ANOTHERALL MOMENTUM INDICATORS OSCILLATE SO WE CAN CALL THEM OSCILLATORSOSCILLATION OF EMOTIONS AND PSYCHOLOGY – GREED TO FEAR, HOPE TO DESPAIRJUXTAPOSE SENTIMENT INDICATOR WITH MOMENTUM SHOWS SIMILARITYMOMENTUM ANOTHER WAY TO LOOK AT MARKET SENTIMENTTECHNICAL ANALYSIS IS THE ART OF IDENTIFYING TREND REVERSALS AT A RELATIVELY EARLY STAGEAND RIDING THAT REVERSE TREND UNTIL THE WEIGHT OF EVIDENCE PROVES OTHERWISE
32. CONSENSUS INDEX OF BULLISH MARKET OPINION
33. BASIC MOMENTUM RULES1: THE OSCILLATOR IS MOST USEFUL WHEN IT REACHES AN EXTREME READING – OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD
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35. -29%512%-31%145%-31%73%
36. BASIC MOMENTUM RULES2: DIVERGENCE BETWEEN OSCILLATOR AND PRICE WHEN OSCILLATOR IS AN EXTREME – IMPORTANT WARNING
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38. -26%
39. BASIC MOMENTUM RULES3.THE CROSSING OF THE ZERO LINE (MID POINT) CAN GIVE IMPORTANT TRADING SIGNALS IN TREND DIRECTION+52%
40. +32%
41. +19%
42. CHARACTERISTICSKEEP IN MIND THE TYPE OF TREND YOU ARE ANALYSINGOIL TANKER VS SPORTS CARLONGER TERM MOMENTUM HAS MORE SIGNIFICANCE THAN SHORT TERM MOMENTUMINTERMEDIATE TREND REMAINS KEY FOR TRADING/ INVESTMENTUNDERSTANDING TREND DURATION REMAINS KEYSHORT TERM MOMENTUM OVER LONG TERM MOMENTUMMARK EXTREMESTLV.SAPTAMANALTLV.ZILNIC
43. CHARACTERISTICS AND MAGNITUDE OF AN OSCILLATOR SWING DEPENDS ONA: NATURE OF THE FORMULAB: THE VOLATILITY OF THE SECURITY BEING MONITOREDC: THE TIME SPAND BEING USEDEXAMPLE: NOT POSSIBLE TO COMPARE OSCILLATOR OF A DOCILE UTILITY STOCK WITH A MINING STOCKEARNINGS OF MINING COMPANY MORE TOUGH TO PREDICTUNDERLYING VOLATILITY HIGHER IN MINING COMPANIESINVESTOR PROFILE MORE STABLE FOR UTILITY COMPANY THAN FOR MINING COMPANYTEL.ZILNICALRO.ZILNIC
44. CHARACTERISTICS OSCILLATORS MOVING IN THE DIRECTION OF THE TRENDS TEND TO COVER LONGER DISTANCE THAN OTHERWISEMEGAOVERBOUGHT CONDITIONS EARLY SIGN OF A BULLISH TRENDONLY TIME TO OPEN LONG POSITION DESPITE OVERBOUGHT CONDITION AND VICE VERSAOLT.LUNARPOLICOLOR.LUNARPETROM.WEEKLYBETFI.WEEKLY
45. CHARACTERISTICS PRICE AND INDICATOR - IN GEAR AND OUT OF GEAR DEFINES DIVERGENCEMARKETS SPEND MOST OF THEIR TIME ADVANCING RATHER THAN DECLININGLEAD CHARACTERSTICS MORE PRONOUNCES AT MARKET PEAKS THAN TROUGHS“MARKETS ARE LIKE HOUSES, THEY TAKE LONGER TO BUILD THAN THEY DO TO TEAR DOWN” – MARTIN PRINGAZO.LUNAR+130%
46. CHARACTERISTICS DIVERGENCE WITHOUT PRICE CONFIRMATION DOES NOT MEAN ANYTHINGPRICE AND MOMENTUM DYNAMICS. UP/DOWN, DOWN/UPSOCP.WEEKLY
47. CHARACTERISTICS GREATER THE NUMBER OF DIVERGENCES THE MORE SERIOUS THE CONSEQUENCES OF A REVERSALTLV.WEEKLY
48. CHARACTERISTICS DIVERGENCE SIGNIFICANCE. NUMBERTIME SPAN BETWEEN THEMCLOSENESS TO EQUILIBRIUM LEVELEXAMPLE OF A CAR OR A SICK PERSONGREATER THE SEPERATION TIME, GREATER THE SIGNIFICANCETLV.MONTHLYTLV.WEEKLY?
49. CHARACTERISTICS THE DIVERGENCE TRAPFINAL BURST UP WITH UNANTICIPATED NEWSTHAT EVEN CAUSES SHORT COVERINGRRC.DAILY
50. INTERPRETATION – SIGNALSTRENDLINES WORK ON MOMENTUM TOOSIMULTANEOUS BREAKOUTS ARE VERY EFFECTIVE, GENERALLY SEPERATELENGTH/NUMBER OF TIMES/ANGLEEXTENDED TRENDLINE RETEST-36%42%-18%SIF5.WEEKLY
51. -11%24%TLV.WEEKLY
52. INTERPRETATION – SIGNALSTRENDLINE PRICE OBJECTIVESBETFI.DAILY
53. INTERPRETATION – SIGNALSPRICE PATTERNS RARE BUT EFFECTIVEMORE IN ROC AND LESS IN RSIPRINCIPLE OF COMMONALITYHEAD AND SHOULDERSSH+106%SIF5.DAILY
54. INTERPRETATION – SIGNALSPRICE PATTERNS – DOUBLE BOTTOMB1B2+31%RRC.DAILY
55. INTERPRETATION – SIGNALS PRICE PATTERNS – HEAD AND SHOULDERSSHISTORICAL TOPSNP.WEEKLYH
56. INTERPRETATION – SIGNALSPEAK AND TROUGH ANALYSISADVANCE BREAKDOWNS AND BREAKOUTSPNT SELLAND ADVANCED BREAKDOWNRRC.DAILY
57. INTERPRETATION – SIGNALSMOVING AVERAGE/ CROSSOVER/ DIRECTIONAL CHANGE/ OVERBOUGHT/OVERSOLD/ EQUILBRIUM CROSSOVERSIF5.WEEKLY
58. 94%-30%29%-43%37%
59. SIF5.DAILY
60. CLASSIFICATION - BANDEDRELATIVE STRENGTH INDEXFAILURE SWINGTIME SPANS
61. MISCONCEPTIONS - 0 TO 100COFFEE.ETC
62. MISCONCEPTIONS - 0 TO 100SIF2.30MIN
63. MISCONCEPTIONS - 0 TO 100SNP
64. CYCLICALITY - OSCILLATORTLV
65. CYCLICALITY - OSCILLATORTEL
66. CYCLICALITY - OSCILLATORRRC
67. PERIODICITY - DEFAULT/GENERATEDSIF2
68. PERIODICITY – DEFAULT (5)SIF2
69. PERIODICITY - DEFAULT/GENERATEDSIF2
70. PERIODICITY – GENERATED (100)SIF2
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