CCFP and CAWS - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

CCFP and CAWS

WET

Date: Spring 2015Slide2

Overview

Operational Bridging Concept

Evolution of CCFP

Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement

Timeline of Implementation

SummarySlide3

Operational Bridging Concept

Focus weather forecast collaboration resources on events that impact the NAS

Take advantage of a blend of newer, higher resolution computerized weather forecast models

Issue critical weather forecast information at the optimal time, even if it is between the usual 2-hour update cycleSlide4

Operational Bridging Concept

Collaborative Convective Forecast Product transitioned to the CDM Convective Forecast Planning guidance Nov 2014

CCFP “look and feel,” forecast issuance frequency, and full-CONUS coverage remained unchanged

Schedule improved to 24-7-365 issuance

New product: Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement (CAWS) starting Mar 2015

Event-driven – timed and focused on areas of potential air traffic impact (enroute and/or terminal)

More timely forecast and flexible format than 2-hourly CCFP

National Weather Service and Industry meteorologists will collaborate on CAWS 24-7 unlike limited CCFP collaboration in the pastSlide5

FAA Statement of Need sent to the

National Weather Service

5Slide6

User Advocacy

6Slide7

Operational Bridging &

TFM Decisions

Starting Mar 2015 the CCFP supplemented by the CAWS will be the primary weather products utilized by Command

C

enter to develop the Operational Plan

“Both the scheduled (CCFP) and event-driven (CAWS) products will be considered the primary source of weather for TFM decisions with the event-driven product taking precedence over the scheduled product if there are differences.” -

NextGen

Aviation Weather Division ANG-C6Slide8

Product History

Operational Bridging (OB) was developed by the CDM community

Currently NWS National Aviation Meteorologists at the Command Center bridge the gap between meteorological information and traffic flow management

After 2 years of limited assessment of Aviation Weather Statement (AWS) in the Northeastern US, the concept was well received by the CDM community

Beginning Mar 2015 the CAWS concept has been formalized and training materials created to support refining CAWS requirements

8Slide9

Previous AWS Example

9Slide10

New CCFP

Started 1 Nov 2014

Uses a blend of state of the art computer models to draw polygons similar to forecaster drawn polygons

Does not

depict legacy CCFP “purple lines”

Issued year round

2, 4, 6, 8 hour forecast on web; 4, 6, 8 hour forecast on TFMS/TSD

Issued every 2 hours at

bottom

of hour prior to SPT

TFMS/TSD timing fix expected Apr-May 2015

Will be refined over time as models improve, verification is provided and user feedback is receivedSlide11

New CCFP Model Inputs

Three time-lagged High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) solutions

One HIRES-ARW (High Resolution Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting) solution

Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) mean convection precipitation

NOTE: Designed to be weighted toward CoSPA solution (based on HRRR) Slide12

New CCFP ExampleSlide13

CCFP to TMI

CCFP

TMI

Strategic

8+ hours

Tactical

Operation

Bridging

&

CAWSSlide14

New CCFP: Where to find it?

Replaced human-drawn CCFP on TFMS on 1 Nov 2014

TFMS/TSD displays 4

, 6, 8 hour

forecast

Available

on AWC

Website

:

www.aviationweather.gov/ccfp

Website displays

2, 4, 6, 8 hour forecastAvailable 24-7 now - including winter months (Nov-Feb)Slide15

NEW - What is a CAWS?

Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement (CAWS)

E

vent

driven

(non-scheduled) advisory for

US CONUS

airspace beginning 3 Mar 2015

Contains

both

a text discussion and

graphical picture of impacted regionIssuance: event driven with as much lead time as possibleIssued for ThunderstormsCAWS & CCFP together will be used by TFM to support TMI decision making strategiesSlide16

CAWS Stakeholders

Stakeholders

Command Center

Operators

NWS

Any approved user can initiate a CAWS discussion

Each CDM participant is

responsible for

designating and maintaining

Approved user lists

Observer or Collaborator permissions for

NWSChat AWC OB Meteorologists will issue preliminary and final product Slide17

CAWS Weather Forecast Collaboration

NWSChat

(password protected) will be a web-based platform for CAWS

continuous

collaboration

Only authorized users may participate in the CAWS chat

AWC, Operators, NAMs, Center Weather Service Units(CWSU) and others will collaborate on CAWS before issuance

AWC

Maintains “51% vote”Slide18

CAWS Chat Collaboration

With Previous CCFP

Chat:

AWC issued Preliminary >

Collaboration -> 15 min of Adjustments

>

Final Issued

With New CAWS Chat

:

Continuous Collaboration & Meteorological

Reasoning > Preliminary Issued > 5 min Check

> Final IssuedCAWS Collaboration focused on meteorological reasoning that supports CAWS productionAgreement on a need for CAWS is required prior to Preliminary Issuance 5 min Check above allows collaborators to ensure CAWS reflects collaborationSlide19

When To Issue a CAWS?

When CAWS confidence and probabilities are met (details follow)

To help add more weather details to an Area of Concern

Onset of Impact

To assist planners with TMI’s

Cessation of Impact

To assist in canceling TMI’s or increase rates

Evolution of convection

Are there gaps in storms and how will it change over time

Disagreement with other guidance

Observations and expected forecast not resembling current guidance especially with new CCFP

Enhance confidence in forecast

Current forecasts are expected to verify

This will provide higher confidence in TMI decisions of planners and others

Goal is to issue CAWS as soon as possible to assist in decision making

4 hour lead time is the target for Thunderstorm ActivitySlide20

CAWS - Areas of Concern

High demand enroute traffic flows, including major airways and offshore

routes

Continental U.S. (CONUS) Core 29 airports and their terminal

operations

Critical airspace near or adjacent to Special Use

Airspace

(

SUA)

such as military restricted and warning

areas

Terminal/En-route areas that do not fit the criteria above but are expected to be materially impacted by special events, VIP movement, or runway/equipment outagesSlide21

CAWS Issuance

Probability

and Confidence

Thunderstorm

activity affecting an area of concern is considered to be

Probable

(60-80% probability with high confidence) or

Expected

(>80% probability with high confidence

)Thunderstorm activity that was anticipated to impact an area of concern is now considered to be neither Probable nor Expected There are differing (probability of occurrence, timing, coverage, severity) forecasts of thunderstorm activity affecting an area of concern, and the conflicts need to be resolved

Cessation of

thunderstorm activity

impacting an area of concern is

Probable

or

Expected

one

or more hours earlier than

forecastSlide22

CAWS – Words of Estimative Probability (WEP)

Expect, Expected

: Probability > 80% with high confidence

Probably, Probable

: Probability 60-80 % with high confidence

NOTE: Only one of the above at a time will be referenced in a CAWS

NOTE: CAWS issued only in periods of high confidenceSlide23

CAWS – Issuance Types

CAWS

– Issued for first time, or update to previously issued CAWS

Corrected

CAWS – Issued to modify or correct a CAWS (will reference previous CAWS # in the text)

Cancelled

CAWS – Issued to cancel a CAWS prior to scheduled expiration (will reference previous CAWS # in the text)Slide24

CAWS Text Discussion Format

Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement

nnn

NWS Aviation Weather Center Kansas City MO

hhmm

UTC day

dd

mmm

yyyy

[Optional:

Correction or Cancellation of CAWS

nnn

]

Weather: Thunderstorms

Valid:

hhmm-hhmm

UTC

ARTCCs affected:

ABC

Terminals affected:

XYZ

SUMMARY

A short 1-3 line high level text explaining why the CAWS has been issued

DISCUSSION

Detailed aviation weather information specifically related to air traffic constraints. This section should answer the “who, what, where, when, and why?” questions. Slide25

CAWS Text Example

Collaborative Aviation Weather Statement 001

NWS Aviation Weather Center Kansas City MO

1345 UTC Wed 03 Aug 2014

Weather: Thunderstorms

Valid: 1600-1900Z

ARTCCs affected: ZJX, ZMA

Terminals affected: MCO, TPA

SUMMARY: Thunderstorms along the W coast of FL are expected to move inland and become numerous throughout the central FL peninsula during the early afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION: Scattered thunderstorms primarily overwater along the W coast of FL are expected to move inland and increase to numerous across the center of the FL peninsula through the early afternoon, more quickly and with greater coverage than shown by CCFP. Thunderstorm tops will reach FL450. Terminal impact at TPA probable after 1600Z but ending no later than 1730Z. Terminal impact at MCO probable after 1730Z. Expect another CAWS covering FL thunderstorms to be issued after 1600Z.Slide26

CAWS Graphical Format

NOTE:

Solid Blue outline = current weather

Dash-dot Red outline = forecast weatherSlide27

How will a CAWS be Disseminated?

Posted on the Aviation Weather Center website:

www.aviationweather.gov/caws

NWS

Telecommunications

Gateway

Command

Center will issue an advisory when CAWS is issued

Command Center planner will reference active CAWS during SPTSlide28

Scenario- 21 Aug 2014 18Z

Possible Chicago terminal impacts in the next 2-4 hours.

Isol TS to NW of ORD

+SHRA

CCFP Issued 17Z valid 21Z

CCFP Issued 17Z valid 23Z

Moderate Instability

CCFP shows weakening trend over N IL, but there is some moderate instability!Slide29

NWS Chat for Collaboration

Continuous chat will contain links on where to look at the preliminary CAWS for interested parties. An alert when the final CAWS is available will also be issued. Slide30

Preliminary and Final CAWS

Available online via link on

NWSChat

Steps of Production:

Continuous OB Collaboration

will

identify the need for CAWS in

NWSChat

AWC will produce preliminary graphics and text

AWC will publish preliminary CAWS

and issue link in NWSChatChanges can be made to preliminary if needed (5-10 minutes)Once no changes are required a final CAWS will be issued and a notice will be posted in NWSChat

Command Center NAM or NOM will issue notification of CAWS via advisorySlide31

Final CAWS Issued at 1814Z

Collaborative Aviation

Weather Statement

001

NWS Aviation Weather Center Kansas City MO

1814 UTC Fri 22 Aug 2014

CAWS

for Thunderstorms

...

Valid

...1814 – 2200Z

ARTCCs Affected...ZAU

Terminals Affected...KMDW KORD

SUMMARY...

Isolated thunderstorms expected to become scattered and approach the Chicago terminals by

20-21Z.

DISCUSSION...

Despite the

guidance (

CoSPA

/HRRR/CCFP) showing

a weakening trend over N IL, soundings are favorable and lightning activity is increasing as the storms move eastward. Expect storms to become scattered over the next couple hours and impact the terminals by 21Z. Storms should quickly leave the area by 22-23Z and move slightly to the SE and intensify.

Storms should stay south of Wisconsin-Illinois border. Additional

CAWS may be needed as storms move

eastward to southeastward.

21Z radar image with CG lightning overlaid. Scattered thunderstorms over the terminal materialized despite guidance having little to no activity. Storms later intensified into a line and approached IND. Another subsequent CAWS would have been issued around 21-22Z timeframe.

21 Aug

2014

2104Z

FINAL ISSUED CAWSSlide32

2015 CAWS Expectations

2015 is an assessment period and will be a learning experience for everyone

Evaluation of CAWS will take place over the summer to refine CAWS

requirements

Input is needed to improve operational value:

Timing (initiation and cessation)

Identification of impactful events (missed events, prioritization)

Some adjustments by mid-season are possible

Feedback

from

CDM Community

will help improve product – SPEAK UP!NTML (end of shift summary)Customer CommentsSurvey Monkey (during summer assessment) Slide33

CAWS Suitability Assessment

Live field observations from April – August 2015

6-8 weather events

Target ATCSCC, AWC forecasters, Airline Ops Center

Evaluate the usability, effectiveness, and areas of potential improvement for OB and the CAWS

Obtain feedback from ATM decision makers regarding perceived utility of OB and CAWS

Collect usability/utility data via interviews and questionnaires

Observe CAWS development and collaboration process, notification, and dissemination protocols

Document issues and lessons learnedSlide34

Important Dates

1 Nov 2014:

CDM Convective Forecast Planning guidance

replaced CCFP

February 2015: OB and CAWS training for producers and end users

Dry Runs: Feb 10-12 and Feb 23-27

3 March 2015: OB and CAWS issuance beginsSlide35

CAWS Summary

Product of OB Process

Event

driven,

high

r

esolution forecast in graphical and textual formats

Focused on thunderstorm events affecting the NAS

Collaboration

:

government & industry CDM participants

Available via AWC website: www.aviationweather.gov/cawsNotification of CAWS via Command Center advisoryCAWS & CCFP together will be used by TFM to support TMI decision making strategies

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