AOSS 480 NRE 480 Richard B Rood Cell 3015268572 2525 Space Research Building North Campus rbroodumichedu http clasp enginumichedu peoplerbrood Winter 2016 February ID: 658477
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Slide1
Climate Change: An Inter-disciplinary Approach to Problem Solving(AOSS 480 // NRE 480)
Richard B. Rood
Cell: 301-526-8572
2525 Space Research Building (North Campus)
rbrood@umich.edu
http:/
/
clasp
.engin.umich.edu
/people/rbrood
Winter
2016
February
9
,
2016Slide2
Class Information and News
Ctools site:
CLIMATE_480_001_W16
Record of course
Rood’s
Class MediaWiki Site
http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php/Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action
A tumbler site to help me remember
http://openclimate.tumblr.com/
Slide3
Resources and Recommended Reading
IPCC (2013) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy Makers
IPCC (2013) Working Group 1: Technical Summary
IPCC (2013) Working Group 2: Summary for Policy Makers
IPCC (2013) Working Group 2: Technical Summary
National Climate Assessment (2014)Slide4
Resources and Recommended Reading
BAMS: State of the Climate
State of Climate 2009
State of the Climate
: Monthly Summary
Walther
, Ecological Response, Nature, 2002
McCarty, Ecological Consequences, Conservation Biology,
2001
Rosenzweig, Attribution of Impacts, Nature, 2008
Revkin
DotEarth
, Ocean Temperature
Rood Blog, “Just Temperature”Slide5
Outline: Class 9, Winter
2016
Climate variability and trends (
Redux
)
Trends in physical climate
Ocean
Ice
Rain
Temperature
Trends in impacts (most briefly, see IPCC WGII, and reference list)Slide6
Modes of Climate Variability
Weather – single
“
events
”
– waves, vortices
There are modes of internal variability in the climate system which cause global changes.
El Niño – La Niña
What is El Niño
North Atlantic Oscillation
Climate Prediction Center: North Atlantic Oscillation
Annular Mode
Inter-decadal Tropical Atlantic
Pacific Decadal OscillationSlide7
Ocean CirculationSlide8
The Thermohaline Circulation (THC)
(Global, organized circulation in the ocean)
(The
“
conveyer belt
”
,
“
rivers
”
within the ocean)
Where there is localized exchange of water between the surface and the deep ocean (convection)
Warm, surface currents.
Cold, bottom currents.
Green shading, high salt
Blue shading, low saltSlide9
In Class / Groups / Discussion
Thermohaline Circulation
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
In groups discuss Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation / Gulf Stream
How does it affect climate?
How does variability affect climate?
Consider:
Temperature, Ice Melting, Wind, Saltiness, Slide10
What is a stable climate?
NOAA Paleoclimate
LIQUID - ICESlide11
Younger Dryas
POSSIBLE EVIDENCE OF CHANGE IN OCEAN CIRCULATION
WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?Slide12
Abrupt Climate Change
Dynamic variability in the ocean (ocean-ice-land-atmosphere interactions)
Most
scenarios of abrupt climate change are related to a phase change in some way or another. Does the albedo change quickly? Is there a change in the fresh water in the ocean? Is there a release of gas stored in something that is frozen?
It is also possible to define rapid changes in ocean (land?) ecosystems, that leads to composition changes in the atmosphere. Biology – sensitive to temperature, water, salinity,
ph
,
etc.
Lamont-Doherty: Abrupt Climate ChangeSlide13
Abrupt Climate Change (NRC)Abrupt Climate Change (2013)
, National Research Council
Abrupt Climate Change (2002)
, National Research Council
Rood Summary Blog
Wunderground:
Abrupt Climate ChangeSlide14
In ad hoc groupsSlide15
Scientific Investigation
OBSERVATIONS
THEORY
EXPERIMENT
Knowledge Generation
Reduction
Disciplinary
Problem Solving
Unification
Integration
(perhaps not unique)Slide16
What is science, the scientific method?
Elements of the scientific method
Observations of some phenomenon
Identification of patterns, relationships and the generation of suppositions, followed by hypotheses
In principle, hypotheses are testable:
Experiments: cause and effect
Prediction instead of experiments?
Development of constructs, theory, which follow from successful hypothesis.
Predict behavior, what does the next observation might look like?
Development of tests, experiments that challenge the hypotheses and predictions.
Validate or refute theory and elements from which the theory is constructed.Slide17
In ad hoc groupsGroup 1: Think about changes across the Earth system that you would expect to see in a warming climate.
Atmosphere-ocean-ice-land
Group 2: Think about climate change and the “built” environment, what sort of changes would you expect to be important in the next 50 years
Group 3: Think about climate change and the “biological” environment (natural and managed),
what sort of changes would you expect to be important in the next 50 yearsSlide18
Climate Variability and TrendsSlide19
Time Scales of Variability
25 years
50 years
75 years
100 years
0 years
El Ni
ñ
o / La Ni
ñ
a
Arctic Oscillation
Pacific Decadal
Oscillation
LONG
SHORT
Atlantic Meridional
Overturning
Abrupt
?Slide20
January 2011 Temperature Anomalies
El Ni
ñ
o / La Ni
ñ
a
SignalSlide21
GISS Temperature 2002
1997-98 El Ni
ñ
oSlide22
Roles of Uncertainty / Variability at Different TimesHawkins and Sutton,
2009
/
Rood Lecture on UncertaintySlide23
Trends in Physical ClimateSlide24
Fig. 2.5. (
State of Climate 2009
) Time series from a range of indicators that would be expected to correlate strongly with the surface record. Note that stratospheric cooling is an expected consequence of greenhouse gas increases. A version of this figure with full references is available at
www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-climate
/
.
Correlated behavior of different parametersSlide25
NOAA Web Resource on Ocean Heat Content
Levitus 2012 Paper on Ocean Heat Content
Abraham 2013 Paper on Ocean Heat Content and Sea LevelSlide26
Ocean Heat ContentSlide27
Ocean Heat and Sea LevelSlide28
Ice is MeltingSnow and Ice Data Center
State of the CryosphereSlide29
Muir Glacier, Alaska, in 1890 (top) and 2005 (bottom
)
95% of Earth’s glaciers are in retreat
Thanks to Paul EdwardsSlide30
Muir Glacier, Alaska, in 1941 (left) and 2004 (right).
Muir Glacier, Alaska, in 1880 (left) and 2005 (right).
Thanks to Paul EdwardsSlide31
Decline of Arctic Sea IceMovie of Arctic Sea Ice
NASA Sea Ice Collection
Increase of Antarctic Sea IceSlide32
Larsen Ice Shelf Collapse
January 31, 2002
March 5, 2002Slide33
Changes in Moisture and PrecipitationSlide34
Precipitation Extreme Events in U.S.
For example
Groisman et al.
or the
National Climate AssessmentSlide35
Just TemperatureSlide36
Current Climate
Rood Blog “Just Temperature”
For surface air temperature for the entire globe, take a 100 year, 1900-1999, average of each month. Subtract the current month from that average. When was the last month below average?
February 1985Slide37
Time series of February Slide38
Winter 2014It was very
cold
in Michigan
in Winter 2014.Slide39
Global Map January 2014 Temperature AnomalySlide40
January 2014 in PerspectiveU.S.: 53
rd
coolest, 5
th
driest
Global 4
th
WarmestSlide41
January 2014: Global TemperatureSlide42
Role of El Niño (again)Slide43
Global Map January 2014 Temperature Anomaly
Eastern Pacific Slide44
Eastern Pacific Slide45
Eastern Pacific Slide46Slide47Slide48
El Ni
ñ
o – La Ni
ñ
aSlide49
El Niñ
o – La Ni
ñ
aSlide50
The Current Climate (Released Monthly)Climate Monitoring
at
National Climatic Data Center
.
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/ncdc.html
State of the Climate: Global
Plant Hardiness - 2012Slide51
Trends in impacts (most briefly)Slide52
Edges and Accumulation“Edges” are places where we really might be able to see things definitively. What are the edges?
Ice (Phase transition)
Deserts
Seasons
Accumulation of heatSlide53
Project BudburstA community science activity collect observations of the onset of spring
Project Budburst
How to observe the onset of spring
National Phenology NetworkSlide54
Project of TreesA community science activity to collect observations on types of trees
Canadian Plant Hardiness Site
Paper (including yours truly) on how foresters think about climate change
McKenney et al. (2011)Slide55
Interestingly significant news storySlide56
Hardiness Map
Arbor Day Foundation Maps of Hardiness Zones
Plant Hardiness - 2012Slide57
Length of Growing Season
From Ranga B. Myneni, Boston University Slide58
Can we get a global perspective from satellites?
NDVI: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index
Looks at radiative budgets, measurements, and the absorption of photosynthetically active radiation, relative to the rest of the radiation.Slide59
How would these changes be revealed?
Changes in vegetation activity can be characterized through
changes in growing season
changes in “productivity”
Increases in Productiviy
Increases in growing season
Jan
Dec
Jul Aug
Increase
NDVI
Jan
Dec
Jul Aug
earlier spring
delayed fall
NDVI
From Compton J. Tucker, NASA GoddardSlide60
From Kirsten de BeuresSlide61
Changes in the Amplitude of the Keeling Curve(Keeling et al, 1996)
Amplitude has increased 20% in Hawaii
Amplitude has increased 40% in Alaska, Canada
The phase, start of the decrease, start of the growing season, has moved forward 7 days.Slide62
Geographical extent of warming
Osborn Spatial Extent of WarmingSlide63
Coherent and Convergent Evidence
There is evidence in both the physical climate system and ecosystems of systematic global warming.
This evidence shows correlated behavior through many systems.
Taken independently each piece could be challenged.
Taken together the evidence converges.
Consistent with human-related forcingSlide64
Summary: Class 9, Winter
2016
Climate variability and trends (
Redux
)
Internal modes of variability dominate uncertainty in short-term (decades) and at “smaller” spatial scales (continents)
Oceanic circulation critical in decadal variability and predictive skillSlide65
Summary: Class 9, Winter
2016
Trends in physical
climate
Consistent message from ocean, ice, atmosphere, land
Apparent counterfactuals? Further investigation, are they counterfactual?
Trends
in
impacts:
IPCC WG II comprehensive summary
Seasons are changing, plants are changing, birds are changing, Slide66
Outline: Class 9, Winter
2016
Climate variability and trends (
Redux
)
Trends in physical climate
Ocean
Ice
Rain
Temperature
Trends in impacts (most briefly, see IPCC WGII, and reference list)