PPT-Using Specific Differential Phase to Predict Significant Severe Thunderstorm Wind Damage

Brian J Frugis NOAANWS Albany New York NROW XIX 7 November 2018 Motivation Determining severe vs significant severe thunderstorms can be difficult for a warning meteorologist This has been a challenge for NWS Albany ALY forecasters on several occasions during the summers of 2016 amp 2017 Several significant thunderstorms were either missed or under warned . Wind Damage (Fujita Scale) F0 F1 F2 F3 F4 Storm Surge Activity Mike Evans. NOAA/NWS Binghamton, NY. Barry Lambert. NOAA/NWS State College, Pa. Outline. Motivation. Methodology. Climatology of inverted V events. Major vs. minor events. Low CAPE major vs. High CAPE major events. Lee Picard. Student Volunteer, WFO LWX. University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL. Matthew . Kramar. Senior Forecaster, WFO LWX. Definitions. Severe thunderstorm watch. From SPC: “outlines an area where an organized episode of hail 1 inch diameter or larger and/or damaging thunderstorm winds are expected during a three to eight hour period.”. Joe Villani. WFO Albany, NY. Northeast Regional Operational Workshop. November 2-3, 2016. Motivation. Using downed trees primary method of verifying severe thunderstorm wind damage in the eastern U.S.. Unit 4 – Atmospheric Processes. Necessary Atmospheric Conditions. Water . vapour. must be available in the lower atmosphere to feed clouds and precipitation as the storm forms . A temperature gradient must exist so that rising air cools off rapidly with height. Expert Panel Open Meeting. Austin, Texas. May 29, 2014. Agenda. Introductions. Overview. Proposed Damage Estimation Module. Wind. Surge and Wave. Claims . Data Review. Future Work. Q&A. Introductions. THUNDERSTORMS. (Chapter 14). ORDINARY (“AIR MASS”) THUNDERSTORM LIFE CYCLE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. 1 inch diameter hail, or. 50 knot surface winds, or. tornadoes. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. From . www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/#4.2. , SPC defines a thunderstorm as severe if it has one of more of the following:. a. Hail at least 1 inch in diameter (quarter size). b. Wind gusts to 58 mph or greater (50 knots). Be able to describe . how . and why a . TORNADO. forms, and the role of the . MESOCYCLONE. in formation.. Be able to identify the . THREE. main . TYPES. of tornadoes and the key tornado formation . Written by Jeremy S. Grams, R. L. Thompson, D. V. Snively, J. A. Prentice, G.M. Hodges and L. J. Reames. Presented by Danielle Thorne and Matt Muscato. This paper had two main goals:. To provide a national, several-year-long climatology of convective mode for significant tornado events. What is weather?. What is Weather?. Well?. Write in your journal what weather is.. What factors would you need to consider if you were going to describe or forecast weather?. Have one person from your table login . Prepared . by Impact Forecasting. March 2015. Aon Benfield: . The . world’s leading reinsurance intermediary. Experts in utilizing catastrophe models, annually analyzing . 70% . of the . Homeowners market. Tornadic. Thunderstorm. Conditions. warm sector. southerly. low-level jet. (. mT. ). westerlies. aloft. (. cP. ). trough. jet stream. Tornadic. Thunderstorm Vertical Profile. (. mT. ). (. cP. ). “Convective Instability”. ORDINARY (“AIR MASS”) THUNDERSTORM LIFE CYCLE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. 1 inch diameter hail, or. 50 knot surface winds, or. tornadoes. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. SHELF CLOUD. SHELF CLOUD.