Week 14 My name is paul I am a psychic octopus What are your thoughts Psychics have been with us throughout history Nostradamus prophecies 1500s In the following predictions think of alternative explanations ID: 932001
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Slide1
Paul the octopus – and other psychic claims
Week 14
Slide2My name is paul. I am a psychic octopus.
What are your thoughts?
Slide3Psychics have been with us throughout history
Nostradamus’ prophecies (1500s
)
In the following predictions, think of alternative explanations.
Ready?
Slide4The Death of Henry II
"The young lion will overcome the older one,
On
the field of combat in a single battle;
He
will pierce his eyes through a golden cage,
Two wounds made one, then he dies a cruel death."
Slide5The Great Fire of London
"The blood of the just will be lacking in London,
Burnt
up in the fire of '66:
The
ancient Lady will topple from her high place,
Many of the same sect will be killed."
Fires were common.
Slide6The French Revolution
"Songs, chants, and demands will come from the enslaved
Held
captive by the nobility in their prisons
At
a later date, brainless idiots
Will take these as divine utterances."
It could have been anywhere; Europe wasn’t that peaceful in that period.
Slide7Louis Pasteur's Discoveries
"The lost thing is discovered, hidden for many centuries.
Pasteur
will be celebrated almost as a God-like figure.
This
is when the moon completes her great cycle,
But by other rumors he shall be dishonored."
I suspect “Pasteur” is a common surname in France.
Slide8The Atomic Bomb
"The heavenly dart with stretch its course
Death
in the speaking: a great achievement
The
proud nation brought low by the stone in the tree
Rumours of a monstrous human, bring purge, then expiation."
Heavenly = dropped from plane?
Dart = bomb?
Slide9JFK's Assassination
"The ancient task will be completed
From
on high, evil will fall
on the
great man
A dead innocent will be accused of the deedThe guilty on will remain in the mist."
Victim and accused could have been anyone.
Slide10Sept. 11, 2001
"The sky will burn at forty-five degrees.
Fire
approaches the great new city.
By
fire, he will destroy their city,
A cold and cruel heart, blood will pour.Mercy to none."
Not sure what’s relevant
Slide11What can you conclude from these prophecies?
Word it vaguely and it will come true
Make 100 predictions and
some
will come true – more if they are vague
Slide12Many philosophers considered wise, but are they?
William James is known as the founding father of psychology
He’s more of a philosopher
Very highly cited till this day, but how many people who cite him have read his books?
My
point: age-old wisdom is sometimes a mere selection among a pool of ideas
Slide13Wisdom as a selection of ideas
Wise Person 1
Wise Person 2
When we say a person is wise, we need four pieces of information
# things said that did not come true
# things said that did
come
true
Slide14Another psychic treatment: Distance healing
Not this
But this
Slide15We are fascinated with psychics
Like the Long Island Medium
But fortunately there are people who are wiser
Slide16How to be a psychic
Barnum-like effect
+
Chance capitalization
+
Unfalsifiable predictions
+…
Slide17How to become a scientist?
Barnum-like effect
+
Chance capitalization
+
Unfalsifiable predictions
+…
-
Slide18Experimental thinking behind scientific psychology
Careful manipulation of experimental
conditions
Ruling out alternative explanations
Systematic observation of facts
Unbias
(or at least we try to be)
A
B
causality
Interpretation
Slide19