PPT-Class 1: Probability & Statistics

In this class we will review how statistics are used to summarize data special probability distributions their use in simple applications using Frequentist and Bayesian methods and Monte Carlo techniques. Random variables, events. Axioms of probability. Atomic events. Joint and marginal probability distributions. Conditional probability distributions. Product . rule, chain rule. Independence and conditional independence. Vishwa. Hindu . Parishad. of America. (DC Chapter) . Shantiniketan. Camp 2014. b. y:. Dr. B.R. . Rambharat. Federal Employee / Consultant. Statistics/Probability . in Ancient India. Mahabharata and Gambling. Joyeeta Dutta-Moscato. May 24, 2016. There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics. . - Mark Twain, attributed to Disraeli. Sample vs population. Central tendency: Mean, median, mode. calculus. 1 ≥ . Pr. (h) ≥ 0. If e deductively implies h, then Pr(h|e) = 1. .. (disjunction rule) If h and g are mutually exclusive, then . Pr. (h or g) = . Pr. (h) . Pr. (g). (disjunction rule) If h and g are . Probability Terminology. Classical Interpretation. : Notion of probability based on equal likelihood of individual possibilities (coin toss has 1/2 chance of Heads, card draw has 4/52 chance of an Ace). Origins in games of chance.. 3.1 . The Concept of Probability. 3.2 . Sample Spaces and Events. 3.3 . Some Elementary Probability Rules. 3.4 . Conditional Probability and Independence. 3.5 . Bayes’ Theorem. 3-. 2. Probability Concepts. 4. Introduction. (slide 1 of 3). A key . aspect of solving real business problems is dealing appropriately with uncertainty.. This involves recognizing explicitly that uncertainty exists and using quantitative methods to model uncertainty.. What we learned last class…. We are not good at recognizing/dealing with randomness. Our “random” coin flip results weren’t streaky enough.. If B/G results behave like independent coin flips, we know how many families to EXPECT with 0,1,2,3,4 girls.. Section 5.1. Randomness, Probability, and Simulation. HAPPY HALLOWEEN!!!!!!. Example 1: . When you toss a coin, there are only two possible outcomes, heads or tails. The figure below on the left shows the results of tossing a coin 20 times. For each number of tosses from 1 to 20, we have plotted the proportion of those tosses that gave a head. You can see that the proportion of heads starts at 1 on the first toss, falls to 0.5 when the second toss gives a tail, then rises to 0.67, and then falls to 0.5, and 0.4 as we get two more tails. After that, the proportion of heads continues to fluctuate but never exceeds 0.5 again.. Starnes, Tabor, Yates, Moore . Bedford Freeman Worth Publishers. CHAPTER 5. Probability: What Are . the Chances?. 5.1. Randomness, Probability, . and Simulation. Learning Objectives. After this section, you should be able to:. Sixth Edition. Douglas C. Montgomery George C. . Runger. Chapter 2 Title and Outline. 2. 2. Probability. 2-1 Sample Spaces and Events . 2-1.1 Random Experiments. 2-1.2 Sample Spaces . Understand concept of independence.. Know how and when to apply General Addition Rule.. Know how and when to apply General Multiplication Rule.. AP Statistics . Objectives Ch15. Know how to find probabilities for compound events. A value between zero and one that describe the relative possibility(change or likelihood) an event occurs.. The MEF announces that in 2012 the change Cambodia economic growth rate is equal to 7% is 80%.. Instructor:. Alan Ritter. TA:. Fan Yang. Logistics. Instructor:. Alan Ritter. Email: . ritter.1492@osu.edu. Office: . Dreese. 595. Office Hours: Thursdays 3:30-4:30pm. TA:. Fan Yang. yang. .549@.