PPT-Uncertainty Quantification, Predictive Science, and Related

Ryan McClarren and Marvin Adams Texas AampM Nuclear Engineering Sun River Workshop on Multiphysics Methods June 710 2010 We cannot predict everything Laplace imagined a demon that knew the position and momentum of every particle in the universe. Cambridge, 28 November 2013. Helga . Nowotny. The odds for tomorrow: promises, policy and. the publics under conditions of uncertainty. The . odds. . for. . tomorrow. Between fear and confidence. What is a promise and what does it do . Economics. Joshua Farley. Community Development and Applied Economics. Gund. Institute for Ecological Economics. University of Vermont. Overview. Math has brought rigor to economics, but also mortis. Euhus. , Guidance by . Edward Phillips. An Introduction To Uncertainty Quantification. Book and References. Book – . Uncertainty Quantification: Theory, Implementation, and Applications, . by Smith. Lecture One. Paul . Constantine. March 29, 2011. What is UQ???. Uncertainty Quantification – ME470. Paul Constantine. Combining computational models, physical observations, and possibly expert . judgment . in Precipitation Data Records. Yudong Tian. Collaborators: Ling Tang, Bob Adler, George Huffman, . Xin Lin, Fang Yan, Viviana Maggioni and Matt Sapiano.  . University of Maryland & NASA/GSFC. http://sigma.umd.edu. Marcia McNutt. Editor-in-Chief. Science . family of Journals. Challenges with scientific uncertainty ...... Public perception that if scientists express uncertainty, they “don’t know they are talking about.”. Heisenberg. Causality law has it that if we know the present, then we can predict the future.. Be aware: in this formulation, it is not the consequence, but the premise, that is false. As a matter of principle, we cannot know all determining elements of the present.. Gasifiers. Performance Measures x.x, x.x, and x.x. Aytekin Gel. 1,2 . , Mehrdad Shahnam. 1. , . Arun K. Subramaniyan. 3 . , Jordan Musser. 1. , . Jean-François Dietiker. 1,4. (1) National Energy Technology Laboratory , Morgantown, WV, U.S.A.. April 5-8, 2016. Lausanne, Switzerland. Towards Uncertainty Quantification in 21st Century Sea-Level Rise Predictions: Efficient Methods for . Bayesian Calibration and Forward Propagation of Uncertainty for Land-Ice . April 5-8, 2016. Lausanne, Switzerland. Towards Uncertainty Quantification in 21st Century Sea-Level Rise Predictions: Efficient Methods for . Bayesian Calibration and Forward Propagation of Uncertainty for Land-Ice . Russell . Hooper. NEKVAC/NUC Workshop. “Multiphysics Model Validation”. NCSU, Raleigh. June 28, 2017. Initial Scope: UQ CIPS Challenge . Problem. Quarter-core CIPS (. QoIs. : . max_crud_thickness. in Monte Carlo simulation. Matej . Batic, . Gabriela Hoff, Paolo Saracco. Collaborators: . Politecnico Milano, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, MPI HLL, Univ. Darmstadt, XFEL, UC Berkeley, State Univ. Rio de Janeiro, Hanyang Univ. (Korea) . Dr Ryan Vogwill . HydroGeoEnviro. Pty Ltd. Outline. Positive Comments. Climate Change – Extreme Events. Conceptual Hydrogeology and Modelling. Parameter uncertainty and non unique solutions in modelling. Maaliyah Harris. MFT Trainee & Academic Coach. OVERVIEW. Define Intolerance . of . Uncertainty. and . Its Relation. to . Fear . How . Uncertainty. about . The Future Can Lead. to . Anxiety. Examples of .