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Dr ShuPing Hushutecolotecom Alfred Smithasmithtecolotecom 2016 Presented at the 2016 ICEAA Professional Development Training Workshop wwwiceaaonlinecomatlanta2016 ABSTRACT This paper was. Cambridge, 28 November 2013. Helga . Nowotny. The odds for tomorrow: promises, policy and. the publics under conditions of uncertainty. The . odds. . for. . tomorrow. Between fear and confidence. What is a promise and what does it do . Readings. Readings. Baye. 6. th. edition or 7. th. edition, Chapter 3. BA 445 Lesson A.4 Uncertainty. Overview. Overview. Overview. BA 445 Lesson A.4 Uncertainty. Expected Value . distinguishes good decisions from good luck. Gambling with positive expected value virtually guarantees . for S2D forecasting. EUPORIAS wp31. Nov 2012, Ronald Hutjes. Background. S2D impact prediction. Uncertainty explosion / Skill implosion ??. SST. Weather. (Downscaling). Soil moisture. Plant productivity. . Logistic Regression III. Diagnostics and Model Selection. 2. Outline. • . Checking model assumptions. - outlying and influential points. - linearity. • . Checking model adequacy . . - Hosmer- Lemeshow test. environmental research. Liew Xuan Qi (A0157765N). Cheong Hui Ping (A0127945W). Hong Chuan Yin (A0155305M). Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making. Gautam Rao. University of California, Berkeley. * ** Presentation credit: Temina Madon. Impact. Evaluation. The “final” outcomes we care about. - Identify and measure them. . Measuring Impacts. A Systematic Review of the Literature. Cindy Jardine. University of Alberta. S. Michelle Driedger. University of Manitoba. Study Objectives. To evaluate empirical studies of communicating uncertainty . Paul Gertler. UC Berkeley. Note: slides by Sebastian Martinez, Christel Vermeersch and Paul Gertler. The content of this presentation reflects the views of the authors and not necessarily those of the World Bank. This version: November 2009.. analytical perspective. . Roy Macarthur. roy.macarthur@fera.gsi.gov.uk. Analytical perspective. Uncertainty about quantitative measurements. Chemical, microbiological, biotechnological . analytes. .. In linear regression, the assumed function is linear in the coefficients, for example, . .. Regression is nonlinear, when the function is a nonlinear in the coefficients (not x), e.g., . T. he most common use of nonlinear regression is for finding physical constants given measurements.. George . Em. . Karniadakis. (Brown U). & Linda . Petzold. (UCSB). Possible Topics/Directions. Rigorous . Mathematical Formulations. Coarse-Graining Formulations, . e.g. . . Mori-. Zwanzig. ; memory. Overviewerror models and regressions (LOLS,MUPE,ZMPE)��PRT210��2&#x/Att;¬he; [/;ott;&#xom ];&#x/BBo;&#xx [6;A.3;Ԕ ;
.97; 69;.12;– 1; Uncertainty Essentials. Les Coveney, INAB Calibration & Uncertainty Day, 18th June 2018. Les Coveney, INAB Calibration & Uncertainty Day, 18th June 2018. Uncertainty Essentials. Definition of Measurement Uncertainty. Dr Ryan Vogwill . HydroGeoEnviro. Pty Ltd. Outline. Positive Comments. Climate Change – Extreme Events. Conceptual Hydrogeology and Modelling. Parameter uncertainty and non unique solutions in modelling.