PPT-Quantifying uncertainty in impact models

for S2D forecasting EUPORIAS wp31 Nov 2012 Ronald Hutjes Background S2D impact prediction Uncertainty explosion Skill implosion SST Weather Downscaling Soil moisture Plant productivity. In response Impact Forecasting RQ57347HQILHOG57526V57347FDWDVWURSKH57347PRGHO57347GHYHORSPHQW57347FHQWUH57347RI excellence has enhanced ELEMENTS ELEMENTS is a completely open and customisable loss calculation SODWIRUP57347DW57347WKH57347IRUHIURQW573 Nick Bloom (Stanford & NBER). Harvard, April 23. rd. and 30. th. Talk summarizes . a forthcoming JEP article (& a work-in-progress longer JEL). Talk summarizes . a forthcoming JEP article (& a work-in-progress longer JEL). Cambridge, 28 November 2013. Helga . Nowotny. The odds for tomorrow: promises, policy and. the publics under conditions of uncertainty. The . odds. . for. . tomorrow. Between fear and confidence. What is a promise and what does it do . In collaboration with:. Elizabeth Whitaker, Erica Briscoe, Ethan . Trewhitt. , . Georgia Tech. Kevin Murphy, Frank Ritter, John . Horgan. , Penn State. Caroline Kennedy-Pipe, . Univ. of Hull. Presented to:. By: Daniel Mason-. D’Croz. & . Shahnila. Islam. What are scenarios. Scenarios are plausible futures. Scenarios are what-if stories used to explore future uncertainties. Scenarios can be told in narratives, numbers, and even images. John L. Campbell. 1. , Ruth D. Yanai. 2. , Mark B. . Green. 1,3. , Carrie . Rose . Levine. 2. , Mary Beth Adams. 1. , Douglas A. Burns. 4. ,. . Donald C. Buso. 5. , . Mark E. Harmon. 6. , Trevor Keenan. An Evaluation of Development Viability. Peter Byrne. Pat McAllister. Peter Wyatt. www.henley.reading.ac.uk/rep/fulltxt/0810.pdf. Structure. Main Research questions. Background and context. Current practice. Stanford University, USA. A strategy for managing uncertainty. Importance of uncertainty and risk. New well planned. P1. P2. P3. P4. West-Coast Africa (WCA) slope-valley system. Data courtesy of Chevron. environmental research. Liew Xuan Qi (A0157765N). Cheong Hui Ping (A0127945W). Hong Chuan Yin (A0155305M). Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making. Objective. The Los Alamos Sea Ice model has a number of input parameters for which accurate values are not always well established. . We conduct a variance-based sensitivity analysis . of hemispheric sea ice properties to 39 input parameters. The method accounts for non-linear and non-additive effects in the model.. Dr Ryan Vogwill . HydroGeoEnviro. Pty Ltd. Outline. Positive Comments. Climate Change – Extreme Events. Conceptual Hydrogeology and Modelling. Parameter uncertainty and non unique solutions in modelling. Campaigns for FMD. Bradbury, N.V., . Probert. , W.J.M., Shea, K., . Runge. , M.C., . Fonnesbeck. , C.J., Keeling, M.J., Ferrari, M.J. & . Tildesley, M.J.. *. Value of information (VOI) analysis. 1. ERiMA. : . Envisioning Risk Models for Assessment of AI-based applications.. 2. Dr Huma Samin. 1. Post Doctoral Research Associate Computer Science. Durham University, UK. huma.samin@durham.ac.uk. An Evaluation of Development Viability. Peter Byrne. Pat McAllister. Peter Wyatt. www.henley.reading.ac.uk/rep/fulltxt/0810.pdf. Structure. Main Research questions. Background and context. Current practice.