PPT-Water Supply Forecast using the Ensemble

Streamflow Prediction Model Kevin Berghoff Senior Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center Portland OR Overview Community Hydrologic Prediction System CHPS 3 Components to model. Simon . Lang, . Martin . Leutbecher, Massimo Bonavita. Initialization of the EPS. The ensemble of data assimilations (EDA) is used to estimate analysis uncertainty for the ensemble.. In the current configuration the EDA perturbations are re-. Ludmila. I . Kuncheva. School of Computer Science. Bangor University, UK. Publications (580). Citations (4594). “CLASSIFIER ENSEMBLE DIVERSITY”. Search on 10 Sep 2014. MULTIPLE CLASSIFIER SYSTEMS 30. and post-processing . team reports to NGGPS. Tom Hamill. ESRL, Physical Sciences Division. tom.hamill@noaa.gov. (303) 497-3060. 1. Proposed team . members. Ensemble system development. Post-processing. Applying data assimilation for rapid forecast updates in global weather models. Luke E. Madaus --- Greg Hakim; Cliff Mass. University of Washington. In Revision -- QJRMS. Outline. Brief introduction. Dongsheng. Luo, Chen Gong, . Renjun. Hu. , Liang . Duan. Shuai. Ma, . Niannian. Wu, . Xuelian. Lin. TeamBUAA. Problem & Challenges. Problem: . rank nodes in a heterogeneous graph based on query-independent node importance . of Ambiguity . in Ensemble Forecasts. Tony . Eckel. National Weather Service Office of Science and Technology, Silver Spring, MD. Mark Allen. Air Force Weather Agency, Omaha, NE. Eckel. , F.A., M.S. Allen, and M.C. . The very basics. Richard H. Grumm. National Weather Service. State College PA 16803. The big WHY. Figure 2-1. The fundamental problem with numerical weather prediction include the uncertainty with the initial data and resulting initial conditions, the forecast methods used to produce the forecast, and the resulting forecast. The smaller oval about the initial conditions reflects inexact knowledge and the larger ellipse about the forecast shows the error growth. Thus we know more about the . james.d.brown@noaa.gov. Verification of ensemble streamflow forecasts using the Ensemble Verification System (EVS). AMS pre-conference workshop . 23. rd. Jan. 2010. 2. Overview. 1. Brief review of the NWS HEFS. Earl -- 2010. 45-km outer domain. 15-km moving nest. Best Track. Ensemble Members. Relocated Nest. COAMPS-TC Forecast Ensemble. Web Page Interface. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/ens?&spg=1. Modeling and Development Division. CPTEC/INPE. Middle-Range Ensemble Forecast at CPTEC/INPE - Current Activities. 2. Local Ensemble Transformed . Kalman. Filter. OUTLINE. 3. New method to obtain perturbed initial conditions . (The 10. th. . Adjoint. Workshop). Roanoke. , West Virginia. June . 1. -5, . 2015. The Use of Ensemble-Based Sensitivity with Observations to Improve Predictability of Severe Convective Events. Brian . Presentation by: Mehdi Shahriari. Advisor: Guido . Cervone. Research Questions. How to use Analog Ensemble . for probabilistic weather prediction?. . What is the uncertainty associated with wind power estimates?. its. . Verification. Malaquías. Peña. Environmental Modeling Center, NCEP/NOAA. 1. Material comprises Sects. . . 6.6, 7.4 and 7.7 in . Wilks. (2. nd. Edition). Additional material and notes from . A Regression Model for Ensemble Forecasts David Unger Climate Prediction Center Summary A linear regression model can be designed specifically for ensemble prediction systems. It is best applied to direct model forecasts of the element in question.