PPT-Improving Numerical Weather Prediction Using Analog Ensemble

Presentation by Mehdi Shahriari Advisor Guido Cervone Research Questions How to use Analog Ensemble for probabilistic weather prediction What is the uncertainty associated with wind power estimates. . Thorpex-Tigge. . and use in Applications. Tom Hopson. Outline. Thorpex. -Tigge. data set. Ensemble forecast examples:. a) Southwestern African . flooding. . TIGGE, the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble. Simon . Lang, . Martin . Leutbecher, Massimo Bonavita. Initialization of the EPS. The ensemble of data assimilations (EDA) is used to estimate analysis uncertainty for the ensemble.. In the current configuration the EDA perturbations are re-. and post-processing . team reports to NGGPS. Tom Hamill. ESRL, Physical Sciences Division. tom.hamill@noaa.gov. (303) 497-3060. 1. Proposed team . members. Ensemble system development. Post-processing. Molly Smith, Ryan Torn, . Kristen . Corbosiero. , and Philip . Pegion. NWS Focal Points: . Steve . DiRienzo. . and Mike . Jurewicz. . WFO . BGM Sub-Regional Workshop . 23 September, 2015. Motivation. Which of the two options increases your chances of having a good grade on the exam? . Solving the test individually. Solving the test in groups. Why?. Ensemble Learning. Weak classifier A. Ensemble Learning. Applying data assimilation for rapid forecast updates in global weather models. Luke E. Madaus --- Greg Hakim; Cliff Mass. University of Washington. In Revision -- QJRMS. Outline. Brief introduction. Better Predictions Through Diversity. Todd Holloway. ETech 2008. Outline. Building a classifier (a tutorial example). Neighbor method. Major ideas and challenges in classification. Ensembles in practice. Dr. Louis W. . Uccellini. Director, National Weather Service. NOAA Assistant Administrator for Weather . Services. July 13, 2016 – Congressional Briefing. Value of . Weekly to Seasonal Predictions. Dr. Jonathan Fairman. 21 April 2016. Presentation by Prof. Dave Schultz. Early meteorology was . not. a science. . “. Whatever may be the progress of sciences, NEVER will observers. who are trust-worthy, and careful of their reputation, venture to foretell the state of the weather.. Earl -- 2010. 45-km outer domain. 15-km moving nest. Best Track. Ensemble Members. Relocated Nest. COAMPS-TC Forecast Ensemble. Web Page Interface. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/ens?&spg=1. Modeling and Development Division. CPTEC/INPE. Middle-Range Ensemble Forecast at CPTEC/INPE - Current Activities. 2. Local Ensemble Transformed . Kalman. Filter. OUTLINE. 3. New method to obtain perturbed initial conditions . Streamflow. Prediction Model. Kevin . Berghoff. , Senior . Hydrologist. Northwest River Forecast . Center. Portland, OR. Overview. Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS). 3 Components to model. predictions with bias correction approach. Jianping. Huang. 1,2. , Jeff McQueen. 2. , Perry Shafran. 1,2. , . Irina Djalalova. 3,4. , James Wilczak. 4. , Ho-Chun Huang. 1,2. , . Pius . Lee. 5. ,. Li Pan. Mihail. Codrescu. 1. , Stefan Codrescu. 1,2. , . Mariangel. Fedrizzi. 1,2. , and Claudia Borries. 3. 1. Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder, United States of America (. mihail.codrescu@noaa.gov.