Myanmar Forecast for WINTER Season MYANMAR Southwest monsoon Northeast monsoon Rainy Winter Summer Seasons Monsoon System Main Influence amp Season Criteria for Heavy Rainfall Dry Zone ID: 802434
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Slide1
Department of Meteorology and HydrologyMyanmar
Forecast for WINTER SeasonMYANMAR
Slide2Slide3Southwest monsoon
Northeast monsoon Rainy
Winter
Summer
Seasons
Monsoon System
Main Influence & Season
Criteria for Heavy Rainfall
(Dry Zone)
RF—38mm/24hr and more
Criteria for Heavy Rainfall
(others)
RF—77mm/24hr and more
Annual Rainfall & Heavy Rainfall episode
Climate of Myanmar
Slide4El Nino and La Nina Condition
Slide52016 NW Monsoon Condition and verification of the consensus forecast issued by SASCOF-9 for Northeast monsoon season
Slide6Normal : Average amount of previous 30 years (at least) rainfall
data (Between -20 % and +20 %)
Above Normal : > (+ 20%) of the Normal
Below Normal : < (- 20%) of the Normal
% Departure : (Actual/Normal)*100-100
Definition of Normal, Above & Below of normal (Precipitation)
Slide7Mean Temperature in November (1981-2010)
Actual Mean Temperature in November,2016
Slide8Mean Temperature in December (1981-2010)
Actual Mean Temperature in December,2016
Slide9Mean Temperature in January (1981-2010)
Actual Mean Temperature in January,2016
Slide10Mean Temperature in February (1981-2010)
Actual Mean Temperature in February,2017
Slide11Consensus Temp Outlook for the 2016 Northeast
MonsoonAnd Actual Temp for Myanmar in NE Monsoon Season
During
the season, normal to slightly above normal temperatures are
likely
, over most parts of the region.
Normal-NDJF
Actual-NDJF
Slide12Below
Above
Above Normal Minimum temperature in Chin,
Bago
,
Kayah
and Mon
A
bout
normal in the Remaining Regions and States during winter season.
In 2016 winter season,
Slide13Normal Rainfall in October (1981-2010)
Actual Rainfall in October, 2016
Slide14Normal Rainfall in November (1981-2010)
Actual Rainfall in November, 2016
Slide15Normal Rainfall in December (1981-2010)
Actual Rainfall in December, 2016
Slide16Percentage Departure Rainfall in Nov, 2016
Percentage Departure Rainfall in Dec, 2016
Percentage Departure Rainfall in Oct, 2016
Normal
Above Normal
Below Normal
Slide17Verification with Actual and Consensus
Outlook for the
2016 Northeast
Monsoon Rainfall
rainfall distribution is below normal and normal during
the 2016
northeast
monsoon season
(Oct
–
Dec)
over
Myanmar.
Above Normal Below
Slide18Temperature and Rainfall Forecast for Northeast Monsoon Season (October-December), 2017
Slide19ECMWF
Below Normal Rainfall in southern and Eastern Myanmar
others normal
Slide20NOAA/CPC
Slightly above Normal Rainfall in the whole country
Slide21Normal
Above Normal
Slide22Above Normal
nmme
Nov
Dec
Feb
Jan
Slide23Forecast for 2018 Northeast Monsoon Season (Oct, 2107 to Feb,2018)
forecast for NDJF,
Below
Normal
Normal
Above Normal
Slide24NOAA/CPC
Lower Myanmar: Normal Temperature
Upper Myanmar :Above Normal Temperature
Slide25Normal
Normal Temperature in the whole
Myanmr
Slide26Above
Normal
Above : Upper Myanmar
Normal : Lowe Myanmar
Slide27Temperature forecast for 2017 NE Monsoon Season(Oct to Dec)
Above : Upper MyanmarNormal : Lower Myanmar
Slide28