Impacts of climate change in - PowerPoint Presentation

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Impacts of climate change in Ethiopian agricultural and the role of agricultural insurance in disaster risk reduction and resilience

jemsethio@gmail.com , Jemal.Seida@eiar.gov.et

Africa-Asia Conclave on Loss and Damage Due to Climate ChangeInstituting a global agricultural insurance programme as a risk-sharing and transfermechanism for developing countriesAugust 25-26, 2016 • Nairobi, Kenya

Jemal SeidClimate and Geospatial Research Program

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Outline

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Agriculture and Climate Change in EthiopiaCharacteristics of Ag in EthiopiaProduction dominated by smallholder farmers:>

95% of all the farmsProduction is predominantly rainfed – only 4.5% of arable land is under irrigationPrimary producers of agricultural productionDirectly employs over 80% of the labor force Low-input/low-output

Low productivity (yield, labor)Spend about 60% of income on food (AASR, 2014).Challenges posed by CCadds to the exiting challengesmaking worse the tight resources constraintsmore erratic and extreme weather patterns threaten food productionAccelerate envt’l degradationincrease vulnerability of SHHsaccelerate rural poverty

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The nexus between Climate, Agriculture and the Economy

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Trends of Ethiopian Climate with Respect to the Global Climate Change

Past Trends

of Ethiopian Climate

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Historical Climate Variability (1982-2012)

Rainfall coefficient of variability(%)

Probability of failed seasons (%)(EIAR,2015; Tesfaye et.al, 2014)

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Historical rainfall trendsThe

linear seasonal rainfall trend (mm/decade) over

1978-2007Belg season(FMAM) (Source: EPCC, 2015).Meher season (JJAS)(Source: EPCC, 2015 ).

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Historical temperature trends

The linear seasonal mean temperature trend (°C/decade) over 1981-2014

(Source: EPCC, 2015 ).

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What does historical climate records tell us about drought frequency in Ethiopia ?

Source: Adapted from Tesfaye and Assefa (2010) and NMSA (1987)

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What do climate projections tell about Ethiopia’s climate?

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Projected rainfall changes

2025-2049 : RCP 2.62025-2049 : RCP 8.5

: Source: EIAR, 2015Ensemble of 26 models

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Projected temperature changes2025-2049 : RCP 2.62025-2049 : RCP 8.5Source: EIAR, 2015

Ensemble of 26 models

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How does climate change impact Ethiopia’s agriculture?

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Impact on Agricultural Water Resources

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Impacts on Crops: Maize

CSRIO -2050

MIROC-2050Tesfaye et al., 2015

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Tef suitability changesEvangelista et al. 2015

2020-A2a

2020-B2a2050-A2a2050-B2a11%12%17%11%

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2020-B2a

2020-A2a2050-A2a

2050-B2aEvangelista et al. 20157%7%3%12%Sorghum suitability changes

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2020-B2a

2020-A2a2050-A2a

2050-B2aEvangelista et al. 201531%36%46%37%Barley- suitability changes

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Impact on Crop Disease and Pests

At a global scale, pests and diseases attribute to an average yield loss of 18% and 16%, respectively in major crop species (IPCC, 2014)

Climate change will alter potential losses to many pests and diseases as changes in temperature can result in geographic shifts through changes in seasonal extremesExample, wheat rust risk responds to ENSO eventsClimate change may also influence the migration of agronomic and invasive weeds species

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Impact on LivestockPastures and forage crop production and quality; availability

and price;Change in range conditions,

Change in water availability,Changes in the distribution of livestock diseases and pests (e.g. tsetse fly infestation increase); the direct effects of weather and extreme events on animal body conditions such as health, growth and reproduction (Smith et al. 1996;

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Ethiopia's initiatives to respond to the challenges of CC

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Existing DRM mechanisms, policies and system The Government of Ethiopia (GoE) has a strong political commitment to respond to prevailing and emerging challenges of climate change and disasters. new national policy on Disaster Risk

Management developed with the implementation planNational Disaster Risk Management Commission (NDRMC) established

The structure and content of this policy and approach is a first for Africa and Ethiopia has shown constructive leadership in this area. (ACCRA,2016).National Policy and Strategy on Disaster Risk ManagementFull DRM cycle – prevention, mitigation, preparedness, response, recovery and rehabilitation Aligned with the Hyogo Framework for ActionShift in orientation from crisis management to a multi-sectoral and multi-hazard DRM approachInformed decision making based on strong risk assessments and early warning systemLegal backing with proper institutional structure Linkages to Other Polices and Strategies (PASDEP, GTP, The Agriculture Sector Policy and Investment Framework (PIF), CRGE, and others,. …22(GoE, NDRM Policy, 2014)

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The role of risk transfer and insurance in disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptationPast experience

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Agricultural Risk factors and Mitigation Mechanisms in Ethiopia

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Traditional Approaches

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Weather Insurance In Ethiopia-The Pilot ProjectsMacro Level Index

Insurance

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Weather Insurance In Ethiopia-The Pilot ProjectsMicro Level weather index insurance: Case study

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Horn of Africa Risk Transfer for Adaption Program (HARITA)Oxfam, with funding from The Rockefeller Foundation, partnered with Swiss Re, The International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), The Relief Society of Tigray, Dedebit Credit and Savings Institution,

Nyala Insurance Company, and Africa Insurance CompanyDeveloped a weather index insurance based on advanced satellite technology More than 12,200 farmers in 45 villages in Northern Ethiopia will benefit from drought protection.

In 2012 year's drought conditions each farmer receive a share of the total $322,772 in payouts offered through HARITA to help cover crop losses.It’s was the largest Weather Index Insurance Payout for Small Scale African Farmers Triggered by Satellite Technology. https://www.oxfamamerica.org/

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Other pilots in Ethiopia

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Best practiceIn the face of climate change, piloting diversified adaptation techniques, including crop insurance, is one of the coping strategy that GoE is helping to introduce in order to reduce the vulnerability of smallholder farmers in Ethiopia who are totally dependent on erratic rainfall and crop failure.

In late October 2015, a total of 12,000 smallholder farmers in four regions started to benefit from Ethiopia’s first weather index insurance claims payment to cover the loss for this year’s crop failure due to El Nino.The

weather index insurance claims paid out 2.6 million ET birr covering a total of around the selected smallholder farmers in Oromia, Gambella, Benishangul Gumuz and Tigray regions.In March, 2016 launched a new crop insurance that covers 15 million smallholder farmers in five years based on vegetation index.The national level vegetation index based crop insurance aims to insure the farmer against weather related risks. Labeled Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the new insurance uses a long standing index used by national and international agencies to monitor the occurrence of drought.(PFEA; EIC; ATA, 2016)

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Challenges and opportunities

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Way forwardAggressive nationwide campaign to create awareness about the product among major stakeholders mainly by the concerned government organs and International Agencies are required.Building on the already established reliable delivery channel by focusing on capacitating cooperative unions, MFI …..Availing quality weather data (both historical and real time)Strength collaboration and partnership between Government, NGOs, domestic insurers,

farmer cooperatives/microfinance and bankersStrengthening and capacitating the existing crop insurance productsThe product needs a detailed legal framework which includes regulations governing the development and operation of micro insurance products.

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Thank your for attention jemsethio@gmail.com , Jemal.Seida@eiar.gov.et