water quality WRA 1050 WaterRF 4468 Comprehensive assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Reservoir Water Quality in a Range of Climatic Regions Leon van der Linden SA Water Research and Innovation ID: 637603
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Future Climate: What does it mean for reservoir water quality? WRA 1050/ WaterRF 4468 Comprehensive assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Reservoir Water Quality in a Range of Climatic Regions
Leon van der Linden
SA Water, Research and Innovation
Water RA Forum, WA, November 2013Slide2
Business Issue: Problem StatementClimate change Water security (quantity and quality; supply and demand), operational costs and asset longevity.Impacts SA Water source waters. Presents additional challenges to planning and operations.“
Managing these changing environmental conditions pose challenges in unchartered
territory and require long-term planning based on scientifically sound research.
” - Denise Kruger, Water Research Foundation, Chair of Board of Trustees.Slide3
Climate: Variability and ChangeVariability: interacting geophysical phenomenaOur understanding is still developingInstrumental record has limited temporal and spatial extentProxies: flood debris, germination events, etc
Global circulation models still have major uncertainties; the science is underpinned by real data
Understanding
the past and present weather is
challengingSlide4
Projected temperature rises for South Australia
2020
2050
2080Slide5
Projected precipitation for Southeastern Australia
2020
2050
2080Slide6Slide7
Post, D., Chiew, F., Teng, J., Wang, B. & Marvanek, S. (2012) Projected Changes in Climate and Runoff for South-eastern Australia Under 1 °C and 2 °C of Global Warming. A SEACI Phase 2 Special Report.Slide8
Potential climate change impacts to the water businessCostAssets / InvestmentsEnergy (pumping, desalination and price)CoagulantsDisinfectantsCompliancePathogens / DBPs / ToxinsOutfallsGreenhouse gas emissionsCustomers
Aesthetics / tastes and odours
Demand
Water
Quality
ImpactsSlide9
Projects on climate change impacts on water qualityWater Research Foundation / Water Research Australia:Comprehensive assessment of the impacts of climate change on reservoir water quality in a range of climatic regionsVT, NCKU, UALiterature review; integrated modelling analysisGoyder Water Research Institute:An agreed set of climate projections for South AustraliaTask 4 – Development of an application test bed UniSA, SARDI, UA, FU, DEWNR
Reservoir model sensitivity analysis; downscaling product evaluationSlide10
Potential climate change impacts on water quality
WTP
Fe
Mn
PO
4
Release of ions from the sediments
Growth of
cyanobacteria
Less frequent but more intense rainfall
Elevated temperatures
Altered flow regimes
Increased transient inputs of:
sediment
pathogens
organic matter
Increased stratification
Impacts on catchment biogeochemistrySlide11
Historically valid coupled model
Skilled GCM
Climate Projections
Catchment Data
Expert knowledge
Catchment and Reservoir Planning Options
Hydrological Model
Hydrodynamic Model
Water quality Model
Reservoir Data
Climate change impacts on water quality
Weather
Generator
Change Statistics
Distributions
Variable correlation
Water quality
scenarios
meteorology
Risk assessment
land
use change
demand changeSlide12
Model Sensitivity – ELCOM-CAEDYM – Happy Valley Res.
Overlay: Empirical sensitivity of monthly average chlorophyll to temperature anomalySlide13
Integrating impacts into risk management frameworkSlide14
Risk Matrix - Defines management vigilanceSlide15
Anticipated OutcomesIdentification of risks to water qualityReservoir stratificationRainfall extremesCatchment impactsDevelop methods to quantify risksContribute to corporate risk managementProvide information for long term planningComprehensive climate change scenariosQuantified changes in riskSlide16