经济密度中国区域经济研究的新视角 Xin LAO 劳昕 Doctoral candidate Peking University Visiting Fellow CGA Harvard University CGA seminar series GIS applications in China Studies ID: 524962
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Economic Density: A New Perspective of Regional Economic Study in China经济密度：中国区域经济研究的新视角
Xin LAO 劳昕Doctoral candidate: Peking UniversityVisiting Fellow: CGA, Harvard University
CGA seminar series - GIS applications in China StudiesSlide2
OutlineBackgroundMethodologyResultsConclusionsSlide3
OutlineBackgroundMethodologyResultsConclusionsSlide4
BackgroundDensity, distance and division are three key factors of global regional economy development (World Bank Development Report 2009: Reshaping Economic Geography)Economic (Activity) Density: The economic development level and economic agglomeration degree per unit areaSlide5
OutlineBackgroundMethodologyResultsConclusionsSlide6
Methodology: Framework of Economic Density Study
Origin: Clark(1951)
Theoretical foundation
Monocentric
& polycentric
Urban & regional
Scales
Spatial scale of research: region, city, community
Density Model
Mechanism
Impacts
Empirical
Research of Economic Density
Time-series
Periods of time: evolution process
Methods
Econometrics, GIS, Spatial Statistics, ESDA
Indicators
Variables and indicators depicting the economic density
Reveal evolution reasons
Influence on productivity
Further research needed
Theoretical
Research of Economic Density
理论研究
实证研究
密度模型
演化机制
影响效应
研究维度
研究尺度
研究时段
研究方法Slide7
Methodology: Framework of Economic Density StudyMechanism
Coordinationmechanism
Market
government
Macro driving force
Median driving force
Micro driving force
Economic growth
Industrial structure change
Factor flow (labor, capital and technology)
Endogenous driving force: urbanization
Economic density growthSlide8
Methodology: Framework of Economic Density Study
Category
Metrics
Empirical research
Economic density of population
Economic indicators/
population
卢忠，
1992
；王晓明，
1993
Economic density of land
Employment density (labor per unit area)
Ciccone
& Robert
，
1996
；
Christopher
，
2003
；
Lourens
&
Jouke
，
2005
；范剑勇，
2006
；
Fredrik
等，
2007
；Giorgio & Francesca
，2007； Marius & Nicole，
2008
Output density (output per unit area)
张富刚等，
2005
；冯玉平等，2006
；A.
Grübler等，
2006；陈良文、杨开忠，2007
；曹广忠、白晓，2010
Industry density (secondary and tertiary industry value added and industrial output per unit area)
林坚等，
2008
；冯科等，
2008
；何邕健、胡丽，
2008
；贝涵璐等，
2009；罗文斌等，
2010
IndicatorsSlide9
Methodology: study areaStudy area: Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta—most developed and main employment agglomeration regions in ChinaIndicator: Employment Density
Scale: County LevelTime-series: 2004 and 2008Methods: Kriging Interpolation, Kernel Density Analysis, Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis, Employment Mean Center and Standard Deviation EllipseData: Employment data from the first and second national economic census (2004 and 2008) 全国第一、二次经济普查数据Slide10
OutlineBackgroundMethodologyResultsConclusionsSlide11
Results (1): Economic Density Distribution in China
Multi-centralized多中心化
Coast-oriented
沿海
化
Axis-oriented
轴线化
Empirical Research: Indicators
10%area(20km from the coast) 55%employmentSlide12
Results (1): Economic Density Distribution in China
Province
省级
P
refecture
地级
County
区县级
Empirical Research: Scales
Gradient
distribution
梯度格局Slide13
Results (1): Economic Density Distribution in China
Employment mean center就业重心Standard deviation
ellipse
标准离差椭圆
2004—2008:
Polarized effects
极化效应
Empirical Research: Time-seriesSlide14
Results (1): Economic Density Distribution in China
Scale
Industry
2004
2008
Province
Moran's I of all industries
0.15
0.18
Moran's I of Secondary Industry
0.20
0.22
Moran's I of Tertiary Industry
0.08
0.11
Prefecture
Moran's I of all industries
0.26
0.25
Moran's I of Secondary Industry
0.29
0.28
Moran's I of Tertiary Industry
0.11
0.13
County
Moran's I of all industries
0.35
0.26
Moran's I of Secondary Industry
0.21
0.25
Moran's I of Tertiary Industry
0.41
0.37
Empirical Research: Methods—ESDASlide15
Results (1): Economic Density Distribution in China
Empirical Research: Methods—ESDASlide16
Results (2): Employment Density Distribution in Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta
Employment Density Spatial Features
(Employment Distribution Pattern)
Yangtze River Delta
Pearl River Delta
2004
2008
2004
2008
Kriging
InterpolationSlide17
Results (2): Employment Density Distribution in Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta
Employment Density Spatial Features
(Employment Center Structure)
Yangtze River Delta
Pearl River Delta
2004
2008
2004
2008
Kernel Density Analysis Slide18
Results (2): Employment Density Distribution in Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta
Employment Density Agglomeration and Diffusion Trends
(Spatial Autocorrelation)
Yangtze River Delta
Pearl River Delta
2004
2008
2004
2008Slide19
Results (2): Employment Density Distribution in Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta
Region
Yangtze River Delta
Pearl River Delta
Spatial Statistics Index
2004
2008
2004
2008
Mean Center
(coordinate)
(120.57
，
31.01)
(120.25
，
31.29)
（
114.16
，
22.98
）
（
114.15
，
22.97
）
SD Ellipse Area
（
km
2
）
91586.3
114046.0
56386.3
55072.2
SD Ellipse Long Axis
（
km）
250.4
299.3
233.4
228.7
SD Ellipse Short Axis
（km
）
114.6
119.1
76.9
76.7
Spatial
Density Index (person/km
2
)
388
477
404
563
Employment Density Agglomeration and Diffusion Trends
（
Employment Mean Center Movement and Dispersion Tendency
）
Yangtze River Delta
Pearl River DeltaSlide20
OutlineBackgroundMethodologyResultsConclusionsSlide21
Conclusions(1) Regional economic patterns in ChinaEconomic density spatial features 空间特征Gradient distribution 梯度格局
Multi-centralized 多中心化Coast-oriented 沿海化Axis-oriented 轴线化Economic density evolution 演化特征 Agglomeration Effect 集聚效应Slide22
Conclusions(2) Comparison between Yangtze and Pearl River DeltaSimilarityE
mployment density cores are mainly located in big cities along the delta coasts就业密度核心区均集中在三角洲沿岸的重要城市Employment density distribution decreased outward from the core area to the fringe由核心区往外就业密度分布呈圏层结构递减DifferenceYangtze River Delta—Monocentric Diffusion
单中心扩散
Pearl River Delta—Polycentric Agglomeration
多中心集聚Slide23
Conclusions(2) Comparison between Yangtze and Pearl River DeltaEmployment center structureYangtze——Government-oriented
政府主导Pearl——Market-oriented 市场主导Influence scope of core employment areaYangtze——Location merit and regional integration strategy 区位优势和区域一体化政策Pearl——Highly concentrated economic distribution nearby Hong Kong 临近香港的高度集中的经济空间格局Slide24
Thanks!
Questions and comments are welcome!
Xin
LAO
xinlao@fas.harvard.edu