1 Negotiating and Implementing Effective Nuclear Agreements is a Vital But Seemingly Intractable Task There are Best Practices from Prior Agreements that Present Instructive Lessons for Effective Verification and Nonproliferation ID: 914769
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John A. Lauder
Monitoring Nuclear Agreements with North Korea, (and Iran and Russia): Applying Lessons From the Past to the New Digital Age
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Slide2Negotiating and Implementing Effective Nuclear Agreements is a Vital But Seemingly Intractable Task
There are Best Practices from Prior Agreements that Present Instructive Lessons for Effective Verification and NonproliferationLessons from the Perspective of an Intelligence Officer & Current Advisor on Monitoring Measures Will Focus on the Challenges of Monitoring an Agreement and on the Role of Intelligence in Monitoring.
Premise and Scope of Presentation
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Slide3The Challenge
Nuclear Agreements with North Korea, Iran, and Others are at an Critical Juncture.A Recent Economist Article Characterized the Current Environment as “Nuclear Disarmageddon”.
Nearly All Concur That Nuclear Agreements Should Include Effective Verification and Monitoring Measures.
What Should Be Those Measures?
What Does the History of Previous International Agreements Teach Us About How to Achieve Effective Verification?
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Slide4To What Extent has the National Security Community Forgotten, or Gotten Rusty on, Proven Methodologies for Monitoring?Is the Current Generation of Monitors Adequately Trained and Prepared?
Are New Open Source Data and Tools Being Appropriately Integrated into Monitoring and Verification PlansIs the Current Funding and Vector of R&D Related to Monitoring Adequate?Is Our Consideration of Monitoring Framed within a Larger Strategic Context?
Discussion Questions
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Slide5Monitoring is gathering information
relevant to compliance assessments through intelligence methods (undefined National Technical Means in agreements), diplomatic means, and negotiated measures such as information exchanges and on-site inspectionsVerification is the process of reaching policy judgments about the extent and significance of compliance and the determination of how to resolve ambiguities or evidence of noncompliance
Key Definitions
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Slide6Horizontal Proliferation is the Spread of WMD Capabilities to States or Non-State Actors Who Don’t Already Have Nuclear, Biological, or Chemical Weapons
Vertical Proliferation is the Development of New Types of Weapons and Enhanced Capabilities by States with Current WMD ProgramsAgreements Help Foster Strategic Stability or Even Roll-back After Proliferation Occurs
Agreements Are a Path Toward Preventing or Restraining Proliferation
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Slide7Integration of Military & Economic Sticks and Negotiated Carrots -- Informed by an Anticipatory Comprehensive Strategy
Dual-Track Approaches (Nuclear Posture Review)
Attention to Danger of Unattended Consequences
Executive and Congressional (Largely Bipartisan) Emphasis
International Commitment
Substantial Resources for Monitoring
Effective Agreement Monitoring Management
Active Monitoring Expert Participation in Formulation, Negotiation, Ratification, and Implementation of Agreements
Recognized Leadership and Accountability
Proven Methodology for Monitoring
Illustrative Factors Behind Prior Successes
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Slide8Successful and Credible Intelligence Support to Arms Control Helped Manage the End Game of the Cold War
US in Particular Built Eye-Watering Intelligence Capabilities for Monitoring
These Capabilities Were Later Adapted for Use On Other National Security Issues
Prior Monitoring Art and Transparency Measures Have Refined Approaches, Methodologies, and Definitions that Remain Relevant to Future Agreements
Negotiations and Agreements of the 70s, 80s, and 90s Established International Precedents and Shared Understandings
A Legacy of Success
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Slide9Combination of Negotiated Measures and National Technical Means Break Tough Challenges Into Manageable Pieces
Data Exchanges and Notifications Provide Normal Baseline and the Functional Equivalent of a Tax Return
Routine Inspections and Cooperative Measures Provide Scrutiny of Geographic Locations Where Cheating Would Be Easiest
Challenge Inspections Available As Forcing Events and to Gather Data on Compliance Concerns
NTMs and Covert Intelligence Look for Anomalies Across Areas and Cover the Backdoor During Inspections
Synergy Sought Among Diplomatic, Inspections, Investigative, and Other Approaches
All the Above Orchestrated by an Agreement Monitoring Manager
Ensures the Pieces Work Together
Flags Issues for the Policy Community
Key Elements of Successful Monitoring Strategy
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Slide10Detects “Militarily Significant” NoncomplianceCreates Synergy in Discovery of Relevant Activities Among Negotiated Measures, International Inspections, National Intelligence Means, and Publically Available Information
Establishes Consultative Mechanisms for Anomaly and Dispute ResolutionBuilds Greater Transparency and Enhances Channels of Communication
Attributes of An Effective Monitoring Regime
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Slide11After Detection, What?
Fred Ikle’s Provocative Question from Foreign Affairs, Jan 1961Need to Plan How to React to Anomalies or Evidence of Significant NoncomplianceConsultative Mechanisms Useful First Step
Periodic Unclassified and Classified Reports on Significant Anomalies
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Slide12Consultative Mechanisms Can Explore Other Measures to Broaden Agreement Scope and Impact
INF-Like Restrictions and Monitoring of Iranian and North Korean MissilesInspection Exercises, Voluntary Transparency Measures, and Verification Technology Experiments with Iran and North Korea
CTR-Like Measures to Reduce Size of Iranian and North Korean Nuclear Complex and Redirect Scientists
Technical Regional Exchanges on Safety and Environmental Concerns
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Slide13Wide-Area, Persistent Surveillance in Permissive Environments
Precise, Geospatial AwarenessForensic Intelligence
Widely-Available Commercial Imagery and Radar
International Verification Institutions and Resources
Data Mining and Analytics
Social Media Sources (even on North Korea and Iran)
What Monitoring Capabilities Are More Robust than 20 Years Ago
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Slide14Broad Scope of Potential Agreements, Number of Participants/Stakeholders, and Objects of Verification, e.g.:
Increasingly MultilateralWarheads and Production of Material -- Not Just Counting Delivery VehiclesTactical as Well as Strategic Weapons
De-emphasis of Negotiated Monitoring and Data Declaration Measures
Requirement for Near Global Monitoring Coverage
For Example, Increased Demands on the Language Skills of Inspectors
Strategically Significant Noncompliance Would Occur At Lower Levels Than Detectable With Confidence
Why Current & Future Challenges Are Harder
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Slide15Stand-off Detection of Fissile Materials and Nuclear Weapons
Assured Deep and Denied Area Penetration
Identification and Characterization of Underground Facilities
Mobile Targets
Inventory of Objects of Verification (Establishing the Baseline)
“Signal to Clutter” Problem
More Sophisticated Denial and Deception
Many US Monitoring Resources and Organizational Structures Have Atrophied or Been Redirected
No Longer Organizations Like ACIS and ACDA
Declining Numbers of Skilled and Experienced Practitioners of Monitoring
Less Attention to Strategy of Deterrence and on Nuclear Weapons in General
Competing Priorities on Current Intelligence and Support to Counterterrorism and Counterinsurgency Operations
Illustrative Challenges or Gaps
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Slide16Avoid Reopening Old US Bureaucratic and International Diplomatic Fights
Advocate Appropriate Priorities and FundingRecover Former Expertise and Best Practices Identify and Train the Next Generation of Practioners
Adapt Potential Contribution of New Monitoring Technologies and Expanded Range of Commercial and International Partners
Undertake More Rigorous Research and Development for Better Monitoring Tools
Yet, Don’t Fall in Love With Pure Technical Solutions
The Challenges Are Substantial and the Lead-Times Long
Need for Anticipation and a Comprehensive Plan
Necessary Actions for Meeting Future Challenges
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Slide17Effective Monitoring Has Implications Beyond the Agreements Themselves
Monitoring Measures Can Incentivize International and Crisis StabilityIn Forging Next Steps, Monitoring and Verification Need to Be:
Achievable at Reasonable Levels of Confidence
Routine
Cost Effective
Reciprocal in Balancing the Needs of Hiders and Finders
Art, as Well as Science
Team Sports
Need for Leadership
Take-Away Thoughts
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Slide18Back-up Slides
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Slide19Policy-Relevant Intelligence Products
At Best When Exquisitely Specific and Timely
Fusion of Multiple Intelligence Sources and Approaches
Often Highly Compartmented
Knowledge of Sources and Methods Valuable for Both Hiders and Finders
Expertise and Experience in the Process
Arcane Knowledge Often Not Present Elsewhere
Non-Partisan Credibility in the Ratification Process
What Intelligence Brings to the Table
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Slide20Consultative Mechanisms
Information Declarations, Inspections, and the Modalities of Sanction Relief Will Produce Many Questions Requires a Body for Discussion of Compliance and AnomaliesSuch Implementation Committees Have Been a Mainstay of Many Prior International Agreements
Consultative Bodies Normally Include Technical Experts Quietly Working the Geeky Details of Agreements, Largely Outside the Political Glare and Bureaucracies of Capitals
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Slide21Goal and Conduct of Inspections
Audit the Information Provided in Data DeclarationsProvide Ground-truth Situational Awareness of Nuclear Capabilities and IntentServe as Tripwires of Breakout Activities
Build Regional and Crisis Stability
To Achieve the Above, Inspections Need to Be Routine and Non-Accusatory
Nonconfrontational “Columbo” Style of Investigation
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