Factors affecting the likely success of referenda - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

Factors affecting the likely success of referenda Slide2

Can we identify and explain factors that could affect the success of referendum? Slide3

Brainstorm… you task to

conect

In your table groups, the starting person (the person with the LONGEST hair) must name one factor that might affect the likely success of a referendum.

Going clockwise, everyone at the table must have a turn, although you can pass Slide4

Strengths and weaknesses of referendum to

alter division of lawmaking powers Slide5

Strengths and weaknesses of change by referendum

Strengths of altering division of lawmaking powers by referendum

Weaknesses Strengths of altering division of lawmaking powers by referendum

Double majority provisions

ensure that only those proposals that have overwhelming support are successful

The low success rate –

which can be largely attributed to the double majority provision (very difficult to attain) and timing, complexity of question – 8/44 proposals successful

Smaller states are protected from domination

by more populated states due to needing support from majority of states (4/6)

Must pass

through Commonwealth Parliament houses, therefore greatly controlled by the Commonwealth which often proposes increases in their own power

The lengthy process

means that proposals are considered in full, thereby protecting the constitution from changes without merit

Lengthy and costly – 1999 referendum

cost 66 million dollarsSlide6

Reasons why referenda may fail

-

Of 44 referendum only 8 have been successful – 4 of these in changing the division of lawmaking power

Referendum

proceedings have proven very unsuccessful since Federation.

Since

1901 there have been 19 referenda. In those 19 referenda, there have been 44 proposals. Only eight of the 44 proposals received support from the voters.Slide7

Timing Slide8

Timing

Referendums are often held at the same time as a general election to

minimise

costs

People then are more focused on who to elect than the referendum

In times of uncertainty, people generally vote No Slide9

Strict formula for change/double majority Slide10

Strict formula for

change/double majority

The formula (s.128 Constitution) is rigid in demanding that the proposal satisfy half of voters to be accepted in at least four of six states as well as majority of voters nation wide

Founding fathers wanted to make sure any change to constitution had overwhelming support

While 13/44 referendum proposals received the support of a majority of Australians overall, 5 of these did not satisfy the majority of “yes” votes in a majority of states requirement

Eg

- 1977 Referendum involving simultaneous elections

Failed as even though supported by 62.2 % of all Australian voters, only majority of voters in 3 states agreedSlide11

Difficulty gaining bipartisan supportSlide12

Difficulty gaining bipartisan support

Unless referendum questions have bipartisan support (two party support) from the leaders of the major political parties, they will almost certainly fail

Parties who do not support the proposal will often urge their supporters not to vote yes

1967 Referendum on right for Aboriginal and Torres Straight Islander peoples gained bipartisan support and support of Australian publicSlide13

Confusing/complex information Slide14

Confusing/complex information

Referendum proposals are often complex and difficult to express in simple language

If voters do not understand issue, they are unlikely to support proposal

Eg

- most

succesfful

referenda were simple

Eg

- 1967 Referendum amended s.51 to give Commonwealth Parliament jurisdiction over Aboriginal affairsSlide15

Voter conservatism Slide16

Voter conservatism

People can have resistance to change if they believe the system is working well the way it is

Unfortunately for Constitutional reform, some sections of Australian society mistrust politicians

Any referendum proposal is therefore seen by these people as a “grab for power”Slide17

High cost Slide18

High cost

Referendums are expensive

1999 republican referendum cost

$66 820

894

It may be too expensive to fund Slide19

Desire to maintain states’ rightsSlide20

Desire to maintain states’ rights

Many referendum proposals have been perceived by the States as shifting too much power to the Commonwealth Parliament

They therefore have been rejected

When put to voters, if a premier urges voters to say “no” it is almost sure to failSlide21

Impact of referenda on the Constitution

The main impact of successful referenda is that it alters the wording of the Constitution .

Words can be altered, added or deleted

This in turn can alter the division of law making power, giving the Commonwealth power in an area that was once residual (state power)

Eg

: 1967 the words “other than the aboriginal race in any state” were removed from section 51 of Constitution” gave the Commonwealth the ability to legislate for Aborigines where this was once a

state power

However, other referendum, such as the retirement of judges at age 70, have had no impact upon the division of state and commonwealth law making powers Slide22

2.5

1.)Explain

why the actual requirements needed to change the Constitution via a referendum have hindered change.

2.)Give

an example of a referendum proposal that may have been too complex leading to a ‘no’ vote.

3.)Why

is bipartisan support so crucial to achieving success in a referendum?

4.)Explain

why a desire to maintain states' rights may result in referenda not being passed.

5.) In

the following examples state whether each referendum would have passed.

A.) A

majority of Australians agree to the referendum proposal and two out of the six states achieve a majority of votes for the proposal.

B.) A

majority of Australians do not agree to the referendum proposal and four out of six states achieve a majority of votes for the proposal.

C.) A

majority of Australians agree to the referendum proposal and five out of six states achieve a majority of votes for the proposal.Slide23

Exam question

One way of changing the Commonwealth Constitution is through holding a referendum. Explain how this process operates and discuss why it has had only partial success in altering the Constitution. 6 marks