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C hanging Climate CLIVAR Research Focus Group Cochairs Eric Guilyardi IPSL NCASClimate Andrew Wittenberg GFDL With contributions from Mat Collins Uni Exeter Wenju Cai CSIRO Tony . What is the impact of ENSO Cycle?. Suzanne Fortin. Recent Annual Severe Weather Climatology. Distribution of of Severe Events During the Cold Season. Analysis of Severe Events and ENSO Cycle. Significance of ENSO Cycle to Severe Incidence. 1 El Ni Michelle . L’Heureux. NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC). August 2013. Outline. (1) Brief Overview of the Ocean and Atmosphere (“Normal” vs. ENSO conditions). . (2) The ENSO Cycle: A Coupled Ocean- Atmosphere System. Update prepared by. Climate Prediction Center / NCEP . 15 October 2013. Outline. Overview. Recent Evolution and Current Conditions. Oceanic Ni. ñ. o Index (ONI) – . Revised March 2012. Pacific SST Outlook. ENSO and the PDO. Michael Alexander. Earth System Research Lab. http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/. michael.alexander. /publications/. Data Coverage from Ships of Opportunity. % of months with at least . Suzanne Fortin. Cold season severe weather climatology . Outline. Recent Annual Severe Weather Climatology. Distribution of of Severe Events During the Cold Season. Analysis of Severe Events and ENSO Cycle. th. Century Climate simulations. Antonietta. . Capotondi. NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory. Collaborators. : Andrew Wittenberg, . Simona. . Masina. , Clara . Deser. , Mike Alexander, Yuko Okumura. Simulation and Impact on ENSO Prediction. Kathy Pegion. University of Colorado/CIRES & NOAA/ESRL/PSD. Michael Alexander. NOAA/ESRL/PSD. NPO in NDJ (-1). . . . . Winds & Heat Flux. Nov. 2018 – Jan. 2019. Issued: October 21, 2018. Contact: ODF Meteorologist Pete Parsons. 503-945-7448 or . peter.gj.parsons@oregon.gov. Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) - Oregon Department of Forestry (ODF). .”. Model composites (method . etc. ) 6 slides. Comparison real time forecast to those composites. ENSO Precipitation and Temperature Forecasts in the NMME: Composite Analysis and Verification. Li-Chuan Chen. 22030. 2 . Department . of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Earth . Sciences, George . Mason University, Fairfax, VA . 22030. Projected changes of the tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear and its relationship with ENSO in the SP-CCSM4. Current Status and Predictions Update prepared by: Climate Prediction Center / NCEP 14 June 2021 Outline Summary Recent Evolution and Current Conditions Oceanic Ni in Feb 2022. Weak La Nina conditions still continue.. How Long this Kiddo can stay?. . . Jeffery . Turmelle. and Jing Yuan. : forecast processing and web updates. Cuihua. Li. E. Hackert, S. Akella, R. Kovach, K. Nakada, A. Borovikov, A. Molod, K. Drushka, and M. Jacob. Problem. : Satellite observes the top centimeter of the ocean. In rainy conditions, the vertical salinity gradient between SSS and first model layer (i.e., where these data are assimilated - S.