PPT-Making Predictions with Experimental Probability

Making Predictions with Experimental Probability Warm Up Probabilities can be used to make predictions in daily life A prediction is something that can reasonably be expected to happen in the future. Stephen P. . Hubbell. (1942-. Motoo. . Kimura. (1924-1994). Neutral models try to explain ecological patterns by five basic stochastic processes:. Simple birth processes - Simple death processes. 2.1 Probability Experiments. Roll of a Die. Frequency. Number Rolled. A six sided die was rolled repeatedly to determine if there was a tendency for one number to be rolled more than the others. The results are displayed in the graph below.. A simulation imitates a real situation. Is supposed to give similar results. And so acts as a predictor of what should actually happen. It is a model in which repeated experiments are carried out for the purpose of estimating in real life. Grades 3 – 5. © 2013 Texas Education Agency / The University of Texas System. “ Inferring is the bedrock of comprehension, not only in reading. We infer in many realms. Our life clicks along more smoothly if we can read the world as well as text. Inferring is about reading faces, reading body language, reading expressions, and reading tone as well as reading text.”. Politics. Politics. How do you think someone’s political affiliation (Republican, Democrat, Green, Libertarian, Independent, etc.) may affect his or her analysis of the likelihood of certain world events? When have you seen this happen in real life?. calculus. 1 ≥ . Pr. (h) ≥ 0. If e deductively implies h, then Pr(h|e) = 1. .. (disjunction rule) If h and g are mutually exclusive, then . Pr. (h or g) = . Pr. (h) . Pr. (g). (disjunction rule) If h and g are . 3.1 . The Concept of Probability. 3.2 . Sample Spaces and Events. 3.3 . Some Elementary Probability Rules. 3.4 . Conditional Probability and Independence. 3.5 . Bayes’ Theorem. 3-. 2. Probability Concepts. 4. Introduction. (slide 1 of 3). A key . aspect of solving real business problems is dealing appropriately with uncertainty.. This involves recognizing explicitly that uncertainty exists and using quantitative methods to model uncertainty.. What we learned last class…. We are not good at recognizing/dealing with randomness. Our “random” coin flip results weren’t streaky enough.. If B/G results behave like independent coin flips, we know how many families to EXPECT with 0,1,2,3,4 girls.. Operational Readiness Review. June 12, 2017. <number>. Background. Ongoing implementation of NOAA/NWS National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) operationally to provide graphical and numerical guidance, as hourly gridded pollutant concentrations, to help prevent loss of life and adverse health impacts from exposure to poor air quality (AQ). Conditional Probability. Conditional Probability: . A probability where a certain prerequisite condition has already been met.. Conditional Probability Notation. The probability of Event A, given that Event B has already occurred, is expressed as P(A | B).. Scatter Plot Review. Using the Regression Line Model to Make Predictions. It’s the responsibility of the news medium to report on important decisions made by newsmakers. Examples include new traffic laws based on the number of accidents, immigration reform based on the number of people emigrating to the U.S., and gas prices based on the supply and demand of oil. These decisions make headlines because of the impact they have on our lives. probability of simple events. Why: . To calculate the probability of simple events and to analyze the difference . between theoretical probability and experimental probability.. Vocabulary:. . Probability– . Dr. Chris L. S. . Coryn. Kristin . A. Hobson. Fall 2013. Agenda. Course overview. Introductions. Course pretest examination. Discussion . and questions. Course Material. Website. http. ://www.wmich.edu/evalphd/courses/eval-6970-experimental-and-quasi-experimental-designs-for-applied-research-and-evaluation.