PPT-Sensitivity to Experimental Uncertainty in Surrogate Descri

US National Combustion Meeting17 April 25 2017 University of Maryland Pavan B Govindaraju Matthias Ihme Special thanks to Tim Edwards AFRL CRECK Modeling Group in Politecnico Di Milano. University of Bologna. Decision making under uncertainty. 2. Water Resources Management under uncertainty?. Uncertainty is always present . in water resources . management.. The reason is that variables like water availability, water demands etc are always affected by uncertainty.. SURROGATE . BASED . GLOBAL DESIGN OPTIMIZATION. The EGO algorithm. STRUCTURAL AND MULTIDISCIPLINARY OPTIMIZATION GROUP. Thanks to. Felipe A. C. . Viana. 2. BACKGROUND: SURROGATE MODELING. Differences are larger in regions of low point density.. I. n . M. easurements and in Calculations. Types of . Experimental. Errors:. Random Errors. :. A result of variations in the performance of the instrument and/or the operator. Do NOT consistently occur throughout a lab. Jake Blanchard. Fall 2010. Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers. 1. Instructor. Jake Blanchard. Engineering Physics. 143 Engineering Research Building. blanchard@engr.wisc.edu. Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers. John L. Campbell. 1. , Ruth D. Yanai. 2. , Mark B. . Green. 1,3. , Carrie . Rose . Levine. 2. , Mary Beth Adams. 1. , Douglas A. Burns. 4. ,. . Donald C. Buso. 5. , . Mark E. Harmon. 6. , Trevor Keenan. University of Bologna. Decision making under uncertainty. 2. Water Resources Management under uncertainty?. Uncertainty is always present . in water resources . management.. The reason is that variables like water availability, water demands etc are always affected by uncertainty.. Inclined Manometer. http://. www.dwyer-inst.com. U-tube Manometer. Sensitivity. Inclined Manometer. http://. www.dwyer-inst.com. U-tube Manometer. Pitot. Static Probe. Measures fluid velocity . v. Based on Bernoulli’s law. Instrumentation Lab. Spring . 2012. Dave Bayless, PhD, PE, FASME. Loehr. Professor of Mechanical Engineering. 248 Stocker Center. e-mail: bayless@ohio.edu. Office Hours: . M,T,W,Th. 15:30 . – . 16:30. Stanford University, USA. A strategy for managing uncertainty. Importance of uncertainty and risk. New well planned. P1. P2. P3. P4. West-Coast Africa (WCA) slope-valley system. Data courtesy of Chevron. Gasifiers. Performance Measures x.x, x.x, and x.x. Aytekin Gel. 1,2 . , Mehrdad Shahnam. 1. , . Arun K. Subramaniyan. 3 . , Jordan Musser. 1. , . Jean-François Dietiker. 1,4. (1) National Energy Technology Laboratory , Morgantown, WV, U.S.A.. The EGO algorithm. 1. Introduction to optimization with surrogates. Based on cycles. Each consists of sampling design points by simulations, fitting surrogates to simulations and then optimizing an objective.. Objective. The Los Alamos Sea Ice model has a number of input parameters for which accurate values are not always well established. . We conduct a variance-based sensitivity analysis . of hemispheric sea ice properties to 39 input parameters. The method accounts for non-linear and non-additive effects in the model.. This project proposes to study sensitivity analysis for guiding the evaluation of uncertainty of data in the visual analytics process. We aim to achieve:. Semi-automatic Extraction of Sensitivity Information. in Monte Carlo simulation. Matej . Batic, . Gabriela Hoff, Paolo Saracco. Collaborators: . Politecnico Milano, Fondazione Bruno Kessler, MPI HLL, Univ. Darmstadt, XFEL, UC Berkeley, State Univ. Rio de Janeiro, Hanyang Univ. (Korea) .