Weather, Environment and Climate Enterprise

Presentation on theme: "Weather, Environment and Climate Enterprise"— Presentation transcript:

Slide1
Weather, Environment and Climate EnterpriseThe role of research
Øystein HovWWRP SSC Geneva 25 October 2016
WMO: Research Dept.
Slide2
WMO Cg17 final report2
WMO Strategic Plan 2016-2018
Slide3
test footer3
WMO Strategic Plan 2016-2019 Expected

Results

Cg17-report p 574
Slide4
WMO Strategic Plan 2016-20194
and environmental
services
Slide5
How is WMO carrying out its mission?
The convergence of weather, climate and environment in a seamless model systemSupported by observational systems that

need
to be
interoperable
, research
and
routine

oriented
Increasing

interdisciplinarity
(
impact

forecasting
- health (WHO), food (FAO), energy, environment (UNEP), labour markets (ILO), shipping (IMO), aviation (ICAO))WMO has added tasks everywhere. Number of programmes increasing, TCs expanding, expectations growing, budgets diminishing. New focus on how things need to be done in WMO
test footer
5
Slide6
IPCC AR4 FAQ 2007
Seamless Earth System Approach. Where
does

WMO’s

mandate
end and
other
UN
agencies
’
begin
?
Slide7
Strategy elements
There is a need to create a more ambitious Strategic Plan, which is truly guiding the concrete activities of the Secretariat and the Members. The ambition level of the current SP is quite low, very much stating the state of the art instead of moving WMO into a new direction.
We may prepare a separate document for advertising the work of WMO. Here the audience are the PRs and the Secretariat.
There is also a need to revise/create (numerical) indicators describing the progress of our work. These will be used in our annual departmental work planning & follow-up 2017-.The
indicators should guide our work in serving our members. Indicators, like how many countries have proper
weather, water, climate & environment
service skills, how many are WIS/WIGOS compliant etc. are most welcome.
Key elements:
Global change drivers and their meaning for WMO
What should be achieved in 2020-23 (and 2017-19)?
How it we will be achieved?
How to monitor progress & evaluate the results?
WMO Secretariat slide
Slide8
Some examples of global change drivers
Paris agreement and its implementation
Sustainable Development Goals versus climate, weather & water
Sendai agreement and its implementation
Weather dependence of economies and human welfare
Growing interest of private sector in service and data provision; big data
Increase of the amount of weather and

hydrology related disasters due to climate change with negative impacts on economies, human wellbeing and migration potential
Public sector expenditure cuts
Uneven resourcing of NMHSs worldwide, need for financial and human resources for capacity development. The limited weather, climate and water services hinder accomplishment of the SDGs
~70
countries without climate
services, ~100 need assistance
Enhance co-operation between
met, hydro & oceanographic
communities
External policy decisions, like
n
ew ICAO or EU standards
WMO secretariat slide
Slide9
Weather
and climate information is often a requirement for a
knowledgebased

approach
to
reach

the

sustainable

development
goals.
But

weather
or
climate is usually not a main focus.
Slide10
Competitive services require to close the gap
between R&D and operationsWeather forecasts for the general public make up 50% or less of the
money

income

stream in modern
NMHSs
?
Does

this

correspond
to
the

strategic
focus of most NMHSs including WMO?Cost-benefit ratios can be very favourable for public (and private) sector investments in «weather-R&D» To enhance the benefit for each societal sector as well as for the NMHS, the relationship needs to be R&D driven, to
know intimately the «
weather
»
dependence

of
the sector, leading to
evolution

of postprocessing models, new observations or use of observations, and backend data stream delivery into sectoral decision systemsNMHSs’ R&D needs to further build interdependencies with academia and private sector R&D capabilities to feed the quality and variety of the «science to service»-value chains in the
NMHSs
. This is
quite

advanced
in CAS. (46%
of

experts
in WWRP from
outside

of

NMHSs
; 65% in GAW;
many

experts
bring in teams or
institutions
)
A
threat

to
the

sustainability

of

NMHSs
is
the

dominance

of

routine
,
rule
-driven
operations

static
over
long
time
periods

with

little

new
feedback to and from R&D (
iterations
) in
their

core

activities
,
with
an ever
increasing
gap to R&D (
which

also

includes

scientific

programming
,
which

may

reside
in IT-
departments

with

too

strict
«
entry

rules
»).
CBS is
the

custodian

of

the

operations
in
NMHSs
in all
fields
. GDPFS, GOS and GTS (
dating
50
years
or more back in time) = World
Weather
Watch. Manual and
rule

focus
New GDPFS, GOS and GTS
need
to
cut

across

the
«R&D to
operations
» gap
Slide11
What?How?Who?
Slide12
CAS Societal challenges a 10y vision
High Impact Weather and its socio-economic effects in the context of global changeWater: Modelling and predicting the water cycle for improved DRR and resource managementIntegrated GHG Information System: Serving society and supporting policyAerosols: Impacts on air quality, weather and climate
Urbanization: Research and services for megacities and large urban complexes
Evolving Technologies: Their impact on science and its
use
WMO; Research
1
Seamless

across
time and
space

scales
,
earth
system
components
Slide13
What?How?Who?
13
Slide14
NWP and
Climate Services’ Production chain driven by R&D and users -
Merging

of
R&D and
forecasters
’
cultures
Postprocessing

RCM, ESD:
General
public
Energy
sector
Floods
Air
quality
Ecosystems
Shipping
Transport
sector
Offshore
Marine
resources
waves
Storm
surgesAgriculture and foodTourismEmergency preparednessHiW Dataassi-milation S2S, decadalEPSC3S, Energy
companies
, transport
etc
CORDEX, CMIP6, IPCC
NCAR,
Verification
All
specialised

users
Users
Backend

Frontend
Human
interface
Observations
,
Emisson

fluxes
,
Other

boundary

conditions
Process

dexcription
Dynamics
Physics
,
snow
,
ice
,
ChemistryPredictabilityEarth System Model formulation
Research topics
Observations
Network projectsThematic orientation
National
research
fundningEU-H2020, C3SNetworks with WMO, WCRP, NCAR, AMAP
National research fundningEU-H2020, C3SNetworks with WMO, WCRP, NCAR, AMAP
National research fundningEU-H2020, C3SNetworks with WMO, WCRP, NCAR, AMAP
Distributed metadata governed data management NRT-flow and storage
R&D, IT
geoscience

focus
,
user

competence
,
communication
skills, data policy
Slide15
15
2
World Weather Research Programme
WWRP a
seamless

programme
Challenges Core Projects
Working Groups
Nowcasting
and
Mesoscale
Tropical Meteorology
Predictability Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting
Data Assimilation and Observing Systems
Verification
Social & economics
Weather Modification
Numerical Experimentation
Slide16
16
2
WWRP Vision
WWRP advances society's resilience to high impact weather through research focused on improving the accuracy, lead time and utilization of weather prediction, and through engaging users & stakeholders to define research priorities and facilitate transition to applications
WWRP promotes cooperative international & interdisciplinary research in the operational and academic communities and supports the development of early career scientists
WWRP aims at Seamless Prediction of the Earth System from minutes to months using coupled systems – thus applying expertise in weather science to promote convergence between weather, climate and environmental communities
Technical
Commission for
Atmospheric
Science
Slide17
Elements of strategyR&D an
essential driver of servicesSeamless weather-climate-environment modellingReconsider observational needs and regulationsDistributed, standardised metadata governed,
data management.
Interoperability

between
systems/disciplines
. Data policy. IPR.
R&D
partnership

NMHSs-academia-independent

research

institutes
Public-private
partnership
Regional capacity buildingReformulate TCs’ and RAs’ roles. JCOMM, CHy, CAgM, CAeM, CIMO, CCl, CBS, CAS. Matrix
Slide18
Products and Services
Academia
Government
Commercial
Science
Research
Public Safety
Economic Health
National Defense
Regulation
Services
Efficiency
Competition
Robust Economy
Communication
Maximizing Value
The Weather Enterprise
Conrad
Lautenbacher
EC-68 16 June 2016
Slide19
STAKEHOLDERS/ACTORS
PUBLIC - International
WMO, CEOS, ECMWF, EUMETSAT, ESA, GEO, WORLD BANK, …
PRIVATE - International
IBM/Weather Company, Panasonic, Spire Global, HPC vendors, ECOMET, PRIMET, WRMA…
PUBLIC - National
NMS’s, universities, space agencies, learned societies (e.g., AMS,
RMetS
), …
PRIVATE - National
Forecasting companies (e.g.,
AccuWeather
), user companies (e.g., energy), trade associations (e.g., AWCIA), …
PUBLIC
50
PRIVATE
50
US – PPP
Weather Coalition
Slide20
Slide21
Slide22
Døgnverdier for hver stasjonStørste døgnverdi ble målt ved to nabohus på Høvik (utenom en urealistisk måling på 277 mm)
Bygdøy (80.5 mm)
Lilleaker (78 mm)
Besserud (69 mm)
Lambertseter (53 mm)
Ljabruveien (32 mm)
Asker (27 mm; Mangler verdier for 07-23 UTC)
Urealistisk (277 mm)
Høvik (110 mm)
Høvik (105 mm)
Jar (97 mm)
Nesbru (93 mm)
Slide23
Slide24
What?How?Who?
24
Slide25
Global UN-level
WG 6: Efficient working practices & culture
25
Need (WHAT)
Goal (HOW)
Lead (WHO)
Success indicator
1
: Catalyzing global science and innovation in the Weather, Climate and related Environmental Enterprise
Develop joint research priorities and actions to address the science-knowledge and predictive skill needs implied in the Paris Agreement, the Sendai framework and other existing and emerging global societal requirements;
Improve the understanding of the Earth System energy, water and GHG exchanges and cycles;
Develop more effective interfaces in partnership with users to build seamless services aligned to societal needs
Research
Peer-review focusing on
excellence, relevance and impact
– annually by the governing/review bodies of WCRP, WWRP and GAW and every four year by an independent panel of not more of 10 experts.
Slide26
Global UN-level
26
Need (WHAT)
Goal (HOW)
Lead (WHO)
Success indicator
2
: Improving global infrastructures in the Weather, Climate and related Environmental Enterprise
Ensure an alignment between Earth System model development and requirements, and evolving computing infrastructure, and foster global cooperation in optimizing the available resources;
Development and optimization of new observational technologies with data assimilation (and verification) techniques.
Research
Peer-review focusing on
excellence, relevance and impact
– annually by the governing/review bodies of WCRP, WWRP and GAW and every four year by an independent panel of not more of 10 experts.
Slide27
Global UN-level
27
Need (WHAT)
Goal (HOW)
Lead (WHO)
Success indicator
3
: Nurturing scientific talent and young scientists in the Weather, Climate and related Environmental Enterprise
Promoting research and development in the weather, climate and related environmental enterprise in order to attract best young talent into the field;
Exposure of young scientists to WMO research programmes and activities, targeted capacity building, relationship and support to YESS community
Research
Awards for excellence
Number of young scientist enganged
Slide28
WMO Members / Regions level
28
Need (WHAT)
Goal (HOW)
Lead (WHO)
Progress / Success indicator
4
: Underpinning research for weather, climate and environmental services in Urban regions
•
Reinforce collaboration between WCRP, GAW, WWRP and champion countries in vulnerable regions through a common regional research platform
•
Ensure the link with international research initiatives with a strong regional component (i.e., EU, ICSU, UNISDR);
•
Development of regional and national projects with a strong research/innovation component in collaboration with international donors (i.e. first pilot in Indonesia with GCF)
Research
Numbers of Members involved in coordinated research initiatives.
Number of collaborations between NMHS and Universities or Regional Research Centers,
Number of NMHS using advanced products
Slide29
29
Need (WHAT)
Goal (HOW)
Lead (WHO)
5
: Coping with and adapting to environmental hazards from short-term to decades ahead (a seamless adaptation framework)
•
Reinforce collaboration between WCRP, GAW, WWRP and champion countries in vulnerable regions through a common regional research platform
•
Ensure the link with international research initiatives with a strong regional component (i.e., EU, ICSU, UNISDR);
•
Development of regional projects in Africa, Asia and South America integrating shortest time scales (weekly to monthly) through intermediate time scales (monthly to seasonal) to long-term infrastructure investment and social adaptation scales (inter-annual to decadal)
research
Slide30
30
Need (WHAT)
Goal (HOW)
Lead (WHO)
6
:
I
mproved research and innovation for Polar and High Mountain regions
•
Ensure the engagement of members into
GCW and the Year of Polar Prediction
• Reinforce the
link with international research initiatives in Polar Regions (i.e., EU, ICSU,
US, Canada
);
•Ensure technical and scientific support to WMO engagment in policy frameworks (i.e. Artic Council, Artci Circle)
• Improve the development of multidisciplinary research activities across weather, climate, hydrology and environmental topics for polar regions
research
Slide31
WMO SP 2020-2023; preparations for Cg-18 (2019)Likely that
there will be proposals for restructurings (33 programmes in WMO, 8 TCs, 6RAs) goal orientation vs disciplinesThe current rapid change
around us requires new innovative solutions, advice and services which can only be produced through the investment in
global research efforts that translate into local benefits
;
An
Earth System
approach is required that investigates predictability
across all time scales
and uses the best approaches to develop
new predictive skill
that can translate into
user services
;
Science has always been core to WMO
and its relevance – the requirements for science to inform policy, planning and action is growing.
31
Slide32
WMO: Research Dept.Thank
you for your attention

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Weather, Environment and Climate Enterprise

Weather, Environment and Climate Enterprise

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