Weather, Environment and Climate Enterprise
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Weather, Environment and Climate Enterprise

The role of research. Øystein. . Hov. WWRP . SSC Geneva . 25 . October 2016. WMO: Research Dept.. WMO Cg17 final report. 2. WMO Strategic Plan 2016-2018. test footer. 3. WMO Strategic Plan 2016-2019 .

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Weather, Environment and Climate Enterprise




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Presentation on theme: "Weather, Environment and Climate Enterprise"— Presentation transcript:

Slide1

Weather, Environment and Climate EnterpriseThe role of research

Øystein HovWWRP SSC Geneva 25 October 2016

WMO: Research Dept.

Slide2

WMO Cg17 final report2

WMO Strategic Plan 2016-2018

Slide3

test footer3

WMO Strategic Plan 2016-2019 Expected

Results

Cg17-report p 574

Slide4

WMO Strategic Plan 2016-20194

and environmental

services

Slide5

How is WMO carrying out its mission?

The convergence of weather, climate and environment in a seamless model systemSupported by observational systems that

need

to be

interoperable

, research

and

routine

oriented

Increasing

interdisciplinarity

(

impact

forecasting

- health (WHO), food (FAO), energy, environment (UNEP), labour markets (ILO), shipping (IMO), aviation (ICAO))WMO has added tasks everywhere. Number of programmes increasing, TCs expanding, expectations growing, budgets diminishing. New focus on how things need to be done in WMO

test footer

5

Slide6

IPCC AR4 FAQ 2007

Seamless Earth System Approach. Where

does

WMO’s

mandate

end and

other

UN

agencies

begin

?

Slide7

Strategy elements

There is a need to create a more ambitious Strategic Plan, which is truly guiding the concrete activities of the Secretariat and the Members. The ambition level of the current SP is quite low, very much stating the state of the art instead of moving WMO into a new direction.

We may prepare a separate document for advertising the work of WMO. Here the audience are the PRs and the Secretariat.

There is also a need to revise/create (numerical) indicators describing the progress of our work. These will be used in our annual departmental work planning & follow-up 2017-.The

indicators should guide our work in serving our members. Indicators, like how many countries have proper

weather, water, climate & environment

service skills, how many are WIS/WIGOS compliant etc. are most welcome.

Key elements:

Global change drivers and their meaning for WMO

What should be achieved in 2020-23 (and 2017-19)?

How it we will be achieved?

How to monitor progress & evaluate the results?

WMO Secretariat slide

Slide8

Some examples of global change drivers

Paris agreement and its implementation

Sustainable Development Goals versus climate, weather & water

Sendai agreement and its implementation

Weather dependence of economies and human welfare

Growing interest of private sector in service and data provision; big data

Increase of the amount of weather and

hydrology related disasters due to climate change with negative impacts on economies, human wellbeing and migration potential

Public sector expenditure cuts

Uneven resourcing of NMHSs worldwide, need for financial and human resources for capacity development. The limited weather, climate and water services hinder accomplishment of the SDGs

~70

countries without climate

services, ~100 need assistance

Enhance co-operation between

met, hydro & oceanographic

communities

External policy decisions, like

n

ew ICAO or EU standards

WMO secretariat slide

Slide9

Weather

and climate information is often a requirement for a

knowledgebased

approach

to

reach

the

sustainable

development

goals.

But

weather

or

climate is usually not a main focus.

Slide10

Competitive services require to close the gap

between R&D and operationsWeather forecasts for the general public make up 50% or less of the

money

income

stream in modern

NMHSs

?

Does

this

correspond

to

the

strategic

focus of most NMHSs including WMO?Cost-benefit ratios can be very favourable for public (and private) sector investments in «weather-R&D» To enhance the benefit for each societal sector as well as for the NMHS, the relationship needs to be R&D driven, to

know intimately the «

weather

»

dependence

of

the sector, leading to

evolution

of postprocessing models, new observations or use of observations, and backend data stream delivery into sectoral decision systemsNMHSs’ R&D needs to further build interdependencies with academia and private sector R&D capabilities to feed the quality and variety of the «science to service»-value chains in the

NMHSs

. This is

quite

advanced

in CAS. (46%

of

experts

in WWRP from

outside

of

NMHSs

; 65% in GAW;

many

experts

bring in teams or

institutions

)

A

threat

to

the

sustainability

of

NMHSs

is

the

dominance

of

routine

,

rule

-driven

operations

static

over

long

time

periods

with

little

new

feedback to and from R&D (

iterations

) in

their

core

activities

,

with

an ever

increasing

gap to R&D (

which

also

includes

scientific

programming

,

which

may

reside

in IT-

departments

with

too

strict

«

entry

rules

»).

CBS is

the

custodian

of

the

operations

in

NMHSs

in all

fields

. GDPFS, GOS and GTS (

dating

50

years

or more back in time) = World

Weather

Watch. Manual and

rule

focus

New GDPFS, GOS and GTS

need

to

cut

across

the

«R&D to

operations

» gap

Slide11

What?How?Who?

Slide12

CAS Societal challenges a 10y vision

High Impact Weather and its socio-economic effects in the context of global changeWater: Modelling and predicting the water cycle for improved DRR and resource managementIntegrated GHG Information System: Serving society and supporting policyAerosols: Impacts on air quality, weather and climate

Urbanization: Research and services for megacities and large urban complexes

Evolving Technologies: Their impact on science and its

use

WMO; Research

1

Seamless

across

time and

space

scales

,

earth

system

components

Slide13

What?How?Who?

13

Slide14

NWP and

Climate Services’ Production chain driven by R&D and users -

Merging

of

R&D and

forecasters

cultures

Postprocessing

RCM, ESD:

General

public

Energy

sector

Floods

Air

quality

Ecosystems

Shipping

Transport

sector

Offshore

Marine

resources

waves

Storm

surgesAgriculture and foodTourismEmergency preparednessHiW Dataassi-milation S2S, decadalEPSC3S, Energy

companies

, transport

etc

CORDEX, CMIP6, IPCC

NCAR,

Verification

All

specialised

users

Users

Backend

Frontend

Human

interface

Observations

,

Emisson

fluxes

,

Other

boundary

conditions

Process

dexcription

Dynamics

Physics

,

snow

,

ice

,

ChemistryPredictabilityEarth System Model formulation

Research topics

Observations

Network projectsThematic orientation

National

research

fundningEU-H2020, C3SNetworks with WMO, WCRP, NCAR, AMAP

National research fundningEU-H2020, C3SNetworks with WMO, WCRP, NCAR, AMAP

National research fundningEU-H2020, C3SNetworks with WMO, WCRP, NCAR, AMAP

Distributed metadata governed data management NRT-flow and storage

R&D, IT

geoscience

focus

,

user

competence

,

communication

skills, data policy

Slide15

15

2

World Weather Research Programme

WWRP a

seamless

programme

Challenges Core Projects

Working Groups

Nowcasting

and

Mesoscale

Tropical Meteorology

Predictability Dynamics and Ensemble Forecasting

Data Assimilation and Observing Systems

Verification

Social & economics

Weather Modification

Numerical Experimentation

Slide16

16

2

WWRP Vision

WWRP advances society's resilience to high impact weather through research focused on improving the accuracy, lead time and utilization of weather prediction, and through engaging users & stakeholders to define research priorities and facilitate transition to applications

WWRP promotes cooperative international & interdisciplinary research in the operational and academic communities and supports the development of early career scientists

WWRP aims at Seamless Prediction of the Earth System from minutes to months using coupled systems – thus applying expertise in weather science to promote convergence between weather, climate and environmental communities

Technical

Commission for

Atmospheric

Science

Slide17

Elements of strategyR&D an

essential driver of servicesSeamless weather-climate-environment modellingReconsider observational needs and regulationsDistributed, standardised metadata governed,

data management.

Interoperability

between

systems/disciplines

. Data policy. IPR.

R&D

partnership

NMHSs-academia-independent

research

institutes

Public-private

partnership

Regional capacity buildingReformulate TCs’ and RAs’ roles. JCOMM, CHy, CAgM, CAeM, CIMO, CCl, CBS, CAS. Matrix

Slide18

Products and Services

Academia

Government

Commercial

Science

Research

Public Safety

Economic Health

National Defense

Regulation

Services

Efficiency

Competition

Robust Economy

Communication

Maximizing Value

The Weather Enterprise

Conrad

Lautenbacher

EC-68 16 June 2016

Slide19

STAKEHOLDERS/ACTORS

PUBLIC - International

WMO, CEOS, ECMWF, EUMETSAT, ESA, GEO, WORLD BANK, …

PRIVATE - International

IBM/Weather Company, Panasonic, Spire Global, HPC vendors, ECOMET, PRIMET, WRMA…

PUBLIC - National

NMS’s, universities, space agencies, learned societies (e.g., AMS,

RMetS

), …

PRIVATE - National

Forecasting companies (e.g.,

AccuWeather

), user companies (e.g., energy), trade associations (e.g., AWCIA), …

PUBLIC

50

PRIVATE

50

US – PPP

Weather Coalition

Slide20

Slide21

Slide22

Døgnverdier for hver stasjonStørste døgnverdi ble målt ved to nabohus på Høvik (utenom en urealistisk måling på 277 mm)

Bygdøy (80.5 mm)

Lilleaker (78 mm)

Besserud (69 mm)

Lambertseter (53 mm)

Ljabruveien (32 mm)

Asker (27 mm; Mangler verdier for 07-23 UTC)

Urealistisk (277 mm)

Høvik (110 mm)

Høvik (105 mm)

Jar (97 mm)

Nesbru (93 mm)

Slide23

Slide24

What?How?Who?

24

Slide25

Global UN-level

WG 6: Efficient working practices & culture

25

Need (WHAT)

Goal (HOW)

Lead (WHO)

Success indicator

1

: Catalyzing global science and innovation in the Weather, Climate and related Environmental Enterprise

Develop joint research priorities and actions to address the science-knowledge and predictive skill needs implied in the Paris Agreement, the Sendai framework and other existing and emerging global societal requirements;

Improve the understanding of the Earth System energy, water and GHG exchanges and cycles;

Develop more effective interfaces in partnership with users to build seamless services aligned to societal needs

Research

Peer-review focusing on

excellence, relevance and impact

– annually by the governing/review bodies of WCRP, WWRP and GAW and every four year by an independent panel of not more of 10 experts.

Slide26

Global UN-level

WG 6: Efficient working practices & culture

26

Need (WHAT)

Goal (HOW)

Lead (WHO)

Success indicator

2

: Improving global infrastructures in the Weather, Climate and related Environmental Enterprise

Ensure an alignment between Earth System model development and requirements, and evolving computing infrastructure, and foster global cooperation in optimizing the available resources;

Development and optimization of new observational technologies with data assimilation (and verification) techniques.

Research

Peer-review focusing on

excellence, relevance and impact

– annually by the governing/review bodies of WCRP, WWRP and GAW and every four year by an independent panel of not more of 10 experts.

Slide27

Global UN-level

WG 6: Efficient working practices & culture

27

Need (WHAT)

Goal (HOW)

Lead (WHO)

Success indicator

3

: Nurturing scientific talent and young scientists in the Weather, Climate and related Environmental Enterprise

Promoting research and development in the weather, climate and related environmental enterprise in order to attract best young talent into the field;

Exposure of young scientists to WMO research programmes and activities, targeted capacity building, relationship and support to YESS community

Research

Awards for excellence

Number of young scientist enganged

Slide28

WMO Members / Regions level

WG 6: Efficient working practices & culture

28

Need (WHAT)

Goal (HOW)

Lead (WHO)

Progress / Success indicator

4

: Underpinning research for weather, climate and environmental services in Urban regions

Reinforce collaboration between WCRP, GAW, WWRP and champion countries in vulnerable regions through a common regional research platform

Ensure the link with international research initiatives with a strong regional component (i.e., EU, ICSU, UNISDR);

Development of regional and national projects with a strong research/innovation component in collaboration with international donors (i.e. first pilot in Indonesia with GCF)

Research

Numbers of Members involved in coordinated research initiatives.

Number of collaborations between NMHS and Universities or Regional Research Centers,

Number of NMHS using advanced products

Slide29

WMO Members / Regions level

WG 6: Efficient working practices & culture

29

Need (WHAT)

Goal (HOW)

Lead (WHO)

Progress / Success indicator

5

: Coping with and adapting to environmental hazards from short-term to decades ahead (a seamless adaptation framework)

Reinforce collaboration between WCRP, GAW, WWRP and champion countries in vulnerable regions through a common regional research platform

Ensure the link with international research initiatives with a strong regional component (i.e., EU, ICSU, UNISDR);

Development of regional projects in Africa, Asia and South America integrating shortest time scales (weekly to monthly) through intermediate time scales (monthly to seasonal) to long-term infrastructure investment and social adaptation scales (inter-annual to decadal)

research

Numbers of Members involved in coordinated research initiatives.

Number of collaborations between NMHS and Universities or Regional Research Centers,

Number of NMHS using advanced products

Slide30

WMO Members / Regions level

WG 6: Efficient working practices & culture

30

Need (WHAT)

Goal (HOW)

Lead (WHO)

Progress / Success indicator

6

:

I

mproved research and innovation for Polar and High Mountain regions

Ensure the engagement of members into

GCW and the Year of Polar Prediction

• Reinforce the

link with international research initiatives in Polar Regions (i.e., EU, ICSU,

US, Canada

);

•Ensure technical and scientific support to WMO engagment in policy frameworks (i.e. Artic Council, Artci Circle)

• Improve the development of multidisciplinary research activities across weather, climate, hydrology and environmental topics for polar regions

research

Numbers of Members involved in coordinated research initiatives.

Number of collaborations between NMHS and Universities or Regional Research Centers,

Number of NMHS using advanced products

Slide31

WMO SP 2020-2023; preparations for Cg-18 (2019)Likely that

there will be proposals for restructurings (33 programmes in WMO, 8 TCs, 6RAs) goal orientation vs disciplinesThe current rapid change

around us requires new innovative solutions, advice and services which can only be produced through the investment in

global research efforts that translate into local benefits

;

An

Earth System

approach is required that investigates predictability

across all time scales

and uses the best approaches to develop

new predictive skill

that can translate into

user services

;

Science has always been core to WMO

and its relevance – the requirements for science to inform policy, planning and action is growing.

31

Slide32

WMO: Research Dept.Thank

you for your attention