Eric Kaufmann Professor of Politics Birkbeck College University of London What of Unevenness World is not one cultural and political unit If it were no problem Power has shifted from empire to nation from the rulers to the people since 17761789 ID: 431699
Download Presentation The PPT/PDF document "The Politics of Population Change" is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to download and print the materials on this web site for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this agreement.
Slide1
The Politics of Population Change
Eric KaufmannProfessor of Politics, Birkbeck College, University of LondonSlide2Slide3Slide4
What of Unevenness?
World is not one cultural and political unit. If it were, no problemPower has shifted from empire to nation, from the rulers to the people since 1776/1789
Spread of democracy (starting 18th c, esp. post-1980s)
A battle of numbers. Getting a majority now counts, i.e. Iraq, Syria, Bahrain…Slide5
Uneven Growth Between:
World Region/CivilizationNationEthnic group
ReligionRegions within a nationSlide6
International Conflict
Countries’ population as % of Britain
Hedley Bull claims 100 million a threshold for Great Power
‘Boots on the Ground’ continues to matter as does scale economies for military procurement
Perceptions matter as much as reality
Rise of China?Slide7
Demography and Ethnic Conflict: Northern Ireland
"The basic fear of Protestants in Northern Ireland is that they will be outbred by the Roman Catholics. It is as simple as that." - Terence O’ Neill, Unionist PM of Northern Ireland after resigning, 1969Slide8
Developing World Transition More Rapid
At the end of the demographic transition Denmark 5 times greater population, Guatemala up to 24 times greater population. Slide9
Internal Racial Demographic Change: California, 1970-2030Slide10
UK: A Multiracial Future?Slide11Slide12Slide13
Age Structure (‘Youth Bulge’)
More young people – dependency ratio - povertyMore young people – unemployment - poverty
More young poor unemployed people – recruits for ethnic, class, religious violenceMore young poor unemployed people – elite/middle class fear – autocracyAging population brings different effectsSlide14
Young age structure, rather than Islam or poverty, is most closely related to democracySlide15
Expansion
of Islam; Decline of Animists and
SecularsSlide16
Eurabia
?Slide17
Direct Effect:
Ultra-Orthodox Salford
vs
mainstream Jewish LeedsSlide18Slide19Slide20
Conclusion
Not just how much population, but how it is distributed across political, ethnic, religious unitsUneven growth and transition, coupled with numbers increasingly counting for power
Shifting within and between statesBoth numbers and age structure affect politicsSlide21Slide22Slide23Slide24
Source: Lesthaeghe and Neidert 2005