SECTOR REFORM IN SUBSAHARAN AFRICA amp SOUTH ASIA Catrina Godinho Management Programme in Infrastructure Reform amp Regulation wwwgsbuctaczamir catrinagodinhogmailcom 1 In ID: 535849
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RETHINKING POWER SECTOR REFORMIN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA & SOUTH ASIA
Catrina GodinhoManagement Programme in Infrastructure Reform & Regulation
www.gsb.uct.ac.za/mir
catrinagodinho@gmail.com
1Slide2
In
Sub-Saharan Africa & South Asia , power sector reforms have proven much more difficult than anticipated, and remain a work in progress in some countries while having completely stalled or reversed in many others.
25 YEARS OF POWER SECTOR REFORMS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA & SOUTH ASIA
THE STANDARD
1990s MODEL
OF POWER SECTOR REFORM
2Slide3
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
48 Countries1 billion people90 GW installed capacitySouth Africa accounts for 43 GW
~ 60% without access
48% of the global population without accessTHE STATUS OF POWER SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA & SOUTH ASIA
SOUTH ASIA
8 countries
1.74 billion
people
350 GW installed capacity,
India accounts for 305 GW
~ 25% without access
33% of the global population without access
Pivotal Challenges:
Attracting private sector
investment
& improving
utility performance
Catch 22
– Strategic Reforms Essential
3Slide4
SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
THE STATUS OF POWER SECTOR
REFORM
IN SUB-SAHARAN
AFRICA & SOUTH ASIA
19
countries,
3
variations,
5
regulators
10
countries,
10
variations,
10
regulators
19
countries, 5 variations,
13 regulators4Slide5
SOUTH
ASIA
THE STATUS OF POWER SECTOR
REFORM
IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA & SOUTH ASIA
1
countries,
0
variations,
0
regulators
3
countries,
3
variations,
2
regulators
4 countries, 4
variations, 4 regulators
5Slide6
For non-OECD countries, the drivers, context and process of power sector reform have been
vastly different to OECD countries and each other. REFLECTING ON THE EXPERIENCE OF POWER SECTOR REFORMS
IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA & SOUTH ASIA
Broad
consensus
that a
normative
and
prescriptive ‘one size fits all’ approach
, like of the ‘standard model’, is
not
appropriate
given this heterogeneity.
Power sector reform
is
not
simply a techno-economic problem, but a political economy challenge.
Initial political economy research
has begun to identify determinative political economy contextualities and offer a number of lessons.
6Slide7
Determinative Political Economy Contextualities
d
ependence on aid/loans
debt
inequality
economic structure
u
ndeveloped private sector
war
R
egime
p
olitical instability
p
ower/influence/access
political blocs
i
nstitutions weak
legitimacy
Institutional capacity
corruption
p
olitical interference
Hybrid Model
s
tarting position
r
ent seeking
7Slide8
Market-based vs State-led a false dichotomy - whatever capacity exists across the private and public sector needs to be harnessed to meet the ultimate power sector development goals
LESSONS FROM THE EXPERIENCE OF POWER SECTOR REFORMSIN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA & SOUTH ASIA
Reform efforts need to be flexible
yet durable, suitably paced and sequenced, and seen to be broadly legitimate by public, private and political actors
Design needs to be
“reality-based”
- designed and implemented with due consideration of the
starting conditions
of the power sector, the
complexities of the political economy
context, and the larger macro-economic and social conditions within a country
realistic
objectives and timelines
choosing
appropriate measures and reform steps identifying politically feasible paths
to reform8Slide9
9AN INTEGRATED POLITICAL ECONOMY APPROACHIN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA & SOUTH ASIA
NATIONAL STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS
State formation,
History,
Geopolitics,
Natural environment & resources,
Macro-economic status/structure,
Demographics,
Socio-economic conditions,
Culture, religion, ideologies
POLITICAL & ECONOMIC INSTITUTIONS
Regime,
Structure,
Distribution power and resources,
Incentives,
Responsiveness,
Accountability,
Inclusive/exclusive,
Transparency & legitimacy (level and source of legitimacy),
Capacity & capability
SECTOR ANALYSIS
SECTOR & POLICY REFORM AREA
Historical evolution of sector,
Structural features & organisation,
Relevant institutions & policies,
Stated sector objectives,
Performance,
Transparency/ Information
STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS
Power (type, distribution & source),
Mode and degree of Influence,
Interests,
Incentives,
Ideas/ ideology,
Networks and relationships
POLICY ANALYSIS
Content,
Viability (political, techno-economic and organisational),
Impact on sector organisation/performance,
Impact on stakeholders, interests and incentives
POLICY/REFORM PROCESSES
Policy making and implementation processes,
Incentives and capacities of actors working in policy formulation, negotiation and implementation
Past policy process timelines and experiences (of relevance)
SITUATIONAL / TEMPORARY FACTORS
‘Focusing events’ (
eg
. crises, news, regime transition, technological breakthrough, etc.),
Policy/reform/issue champions and/or coalitions,
External actors, donor agencies
Stability/volatility across the political economy system
UNDERSTAND POLITICAL ECONOMY AS CONTEXT & OBJECT OF REFORM
IDENTIFY STRATEGIC AREAS FOR REFORM
DESIGN “REALISTIC” REFORMS
MAP POLITICALLY FEASIBLE PATHWAYS TO POWER SECTOR DEVELOPMENTSlide10
RESEARCH AGENDA
10