PPT-QUANTIFYING UNCERTAINTY

Heng Ji jihrpiedu 0329 0401 2016 Top 1 Proposal Presentation Multimedia Joint Model Spencer Whitehead 483 good idea building on existing system interesting problem clear schedule. Jake Blanchard. Spring 2010. Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers. 1. Introduction. We’ve discussed single-variable probability distributions. This lets us represent uncertain inputs. But what of variables that depend on these inputs? How do we represent their uncertainty?. Nick Bloom (Stanford & NBER). Harvard, April 23. rd. and 30. th. Talk summarizes . a forthcoming JEP article (& a work-in-progress longer JEL). Talk summarizes . a forthcoming JEP article (& a work-in-progress longer JEL). Readings. Readings. Baye. 6. th. edition or 7. th. edition, Chapter 3. BA 445 Lesson A.4 Uncertainty. Overview. Overview. Overview. BA 445 Lesson A.4 Uncertainty. Expected Value . distinguishes good decisions from good luck. Gambling with positive expected value virtually guarantees . Lecture One. Paul . Constantine. March 29, 2011. What is UQ???. Uncertainty Quantification – ME470. Paul Constantine. Combining computational models, physical observations, and possibly expert . judgment . Panel Discussion. Lynn H. Pottenger, PhD, DABT. The Dow Chemical Company. Uncertainty Workshop Focus:. Focus on identification of sources & communication of uncertainty in a risk assessment. Not how to measure. for S2D forecasting. EUPORIAS wp31. Nov 2012, Ronald Hutjes. Background. S2D impact prediction. Uncertainty explosion / Skill implosion ??. SST. Weather. (Downscaling). Soil moisture. Plant productivity. Inclined Manometer. http://. www.dwyer-inst.com. U-tube Manometer. Sensitivity. Inclined Manometer. http://. www.dwyer-inst.com. U-tube Manometer. Pitot. Static Probe. Measures fluid velocity . v. Based on Bernoulli’s law. by Angela Campbell, Ph.D. and Andrew Cheng, Ph.D.. ICRAT. Angela Campbell, Ph.D.. June 21, 2016. The findings and conclusions in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the FAA. Saleem Bahaj & . Angus Foulis. 21st November 2016. The views expressed in this presentation are those of the presenter and not necessarily those of the . Bank of England or members of the MPC, FPC or PRA Board.. OUTLINE. Accelerator Pre-alignment background. Uncertainty and GUM supplement 1. PACMAN pre-alignment budgeting . CMM uncertainty modeling. Thermal uncertainty compensation and modeling. First stochastic modeling results. Africa Regional Workshop on the Building of Sustainable National. Greenhouse Gas Inventory Management Systems, and the use of the 2006. IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Swakopmund. Erzo F. P. Luttmer. Andrew A. Samwick. Dartmouth College and NBER. March 2017. Motivating Question. Future government policy is subject to uncertainty. How costly is this uncertainty?. When does policy uncertainty matter most?. Objective. The Los Alamos Sea Ice model has a number of input parameters for which accurate values are not always well established. . We conduct a variance-based sensitivity analysis . of hemispheric sea ice properties to 39 input parameters. The method accounts for non-linear and non-additive effects in the model.. 1. ERiMA. : . Envisioning Risk Models for Assessment of AI-based applications.. 2. Dr Huma Samin. 1. Post Doctoral Research Associate Computer Science. Durham University, UK. huma.samin@durham.ac.uk.