PPT-Quantifying uncertainty and sensitivity in sea ice models

Objective The Los Alamos Sea Ice model has a number of input parameters for which accurate values are not always well established We conduct a variancebased sensitivity analysis of hemispheric sea ice properties to 39 input parameters The method accounts for nonlinear and nonadditive effects in the model. Jake Blanchard. Fall 2010. Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers. 1. Instructor. Jake Blanchard. Engineering Physics. 143 Engineering Research Building. blanchard@engr.wisc.edu. Uncertainty Analysis for Engineers. John L. Campbell. 1. , Ruth D. Yanai. 2. , Mark B. . Green. 1,3. , Carrie . Rose . Levine. 2. , Mary Beth Adams. 1. , Douglas A. Burns. 4. ,. . Donald C. Buso. 5. , . Mark E. Harmon. 6. , Trevor Keenan. for S2D forecasting. EUPORIAS wp31. Nov 2012, Ronald Hutjes. Background. S2D impact prediction. Uncertainty explosion / Skill implosion ??. SST. Weather. (Downscaling). Soil moisture. Plant productivity. Sea Ice Formation. --in Antarctica, begins forming in late summer with winds from the. . continent, evaporative cooling at ocean surface reduces . . water temperature to ~-1.8 °C. --as water temperature falls, ice crystals of fresh water begin . Features . and the Late . 1990s . Change. Renguang. . Wu. I. nstitute of Atmospheric Physics, . Chinese . Academy of Sciences, Beijing. World . Conference on Climate Change. October . 24-26, . 2016, . Stanford University, USA. A strategy for managing uncertainty. Importance of uncertainty and risk. New well planned. P1. P2. P3. P4. West-Coast Africa (WCA) slope-valley system. Data courtesy of Chevron. environmental research. Liew Xuan Qi (A0157765N). Cheong Hui Ping (A0127945W). Hong Chuan Yin (A0155305M). Best Practice Approaches for Characterizing, Communicating, and Incorporating Scientific Uncertainty in Climate Decision Making. Have you ever wondered?. Why are there so many terms for ice?. Why can you walk on the North Pole. ?. Will I be able to walk on ice in the future?. Why should I care about such a cold place?. How does climate in one region of the world effect climate in another?. Americans Turn to Ice Cream Once Again After years of declining sales, ice cream made a comeback during the 52 weeks ending August 6, 2017, increasing 3.9% to $6.1 billion. The North American ice cream market is expected to have a CAGR of 4.1% from 2018 through 2023. Ice Hockey What is Ice Hockey Ice Hockey is a game played In the Olympics and for a weekend sport. Ice hockey is a very competitive because it is an Olympic sport so more people play ice hockey more often. This project proposes to study sensitivity analysis for guiding the evaluation of uncertainty of data in the visual analytics process. We aim to achieve:. Semi-automatic Extraction of Sensitivity Information. JPL’s . ISSM (Ice Sheet and Sea Level System Model). shows how the loss of ice mélange makes it easier for rifts in the ice to widen (. ice mélange and rifts shown in pink). Ice mélange remnants . A Vision for the Future of Weather and Climate Prediction . T.N.Palmer. University of Oxford. ECMWF. On the other hand, the Canadian model - which had conjured up an absolutely devastating storm for the northern mid-Atlantic and Northeast in earlier runs - has shifted the storm’s track out to sea. The GFS model also has an out to sea track, but has shifted a bit closer to the coast compared to yesterday. ice combined. . S. . Rynders (1), . Y. . Aksenov (1), . R. . Marsh (2), . N. . Skrilis. (2), . L. . Hosekova. (3), . D. Feltham . (3), . L. . Bertino. (4), . M. . Srokosz. (1), and . T. . Williams (4).