SABR Case Competition Jesse Hiss, Jack Pillsbury, Mick Schroeder, Clayton Vance, Harrison - PowerPoint Presentation

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SABR Case Competition Jesse Hiss, Jack Pillsbury, Mick Schroeder, Clayton Vance, Harrison - PPT Presentation

Finding The Perfect Cole Hamels Trade Outline 1 Projecting Hamels future value using his current value with risk involved 2 Putting a dollar value on that WAR 3 Finding possible trade partners ID: 757344

war 000 trade added 000 war added trade rev wins npv option red revenue sox www phillies hamels blue

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Slide1

SABR Case

CompetitionSlide2

Jesse Hiss, Jack Pillsbury, Mick Schroeder, Clayton Vance, Harrison Williams Slide3

Finding The Perfect

Cole Hamels

TradeSlide4

Outline

1) Projecting Hamels

future value using his current value with risk involved

) Putting a dollar value on that WAR

3) Finding possible trade partners

4) Valuing those prospects based on WAR, age, position, and rank and associated a dollar value with that

5) Coming up with possible trade packages that provides the most value for the teams involved

6) Estimating added wins

7) Calculating added revenue for those teams Slide5

Stage 1

Finding Hamels Present and Future Value

To find Hamels PV we used a combination of our own SIERA calculation and a consistency rating.

Calculated SIERA – K% , BB% , GB – (FB+IFFB)

Consistency rating – Our SIERA + WAR + FIP weighted over the last 3 yearsSlide6

Hamels Current Value

Pitcher Name

Team

WAR

Calculated SIERA2Clayton KershawDodgers198.12137.22.053Felix HernandezMariners2361566.22.574David Price- - -248.115126.12.705Stephen StrasburgNationals21514114.32.716Corey KluberIndians235.21897.32.737Hisashi IwakumaMariners1791593.22.798Chris SaleWhite Sox1741245.42.819Phil HughesTwins209.216106.12.9310Zack GreinkeDodgers202.11783.92.9611Brandon McCarthy- - -200101532.9812Madison BumgarnerGiants217.118103.63.0513Jordan ZimmermannNationals199.21455.23.0814Jeff Samardzija- - -219.27134.13.1115Jon Lester- - -219.216116.13.2316Max ScherzerTigers220.11855.63.3617Alex WoodBraves171.211112.53.4018Johnny CuetoReds243.22094.13.4119Dallas KeuchelAstros2001293.93.4420Garrett RichardsAngels168.21344.33.5021Alex CobbRays166.11092.73.5022Cole HamelsPhillies204.2993.83.5423James ShieldsRoyals2271483.73.5624Hiroki KurodaYankees1991193.53.5725Mike LeakeReds214.111131.93.5826Adam WainwrightCardinals2272094.53.59

Pitcher NameCalculated SIERAConsistency Value 1Felix Hernandez2.8624.452Clayton Kershaw2.8024.363David Price3.0524.124Chris Sale2.9924.115Max Scherzer3.2623.846Zack Greinke3.3123.787Cole Hamels3.4023.718Madison Bumgarner3.3223.699James Shields3.5523.6510Adam Wainwright3.2423.6311Jeff Samardzija3.4823.2112R.A. Dickey3.9423.1713Jordan Zimmermann3.4023.0814Justin Verlander3.8822.9615Hiroki Kuroda3.6022.90

2012-2014

2014Slide7

Stage 1

Finding his future value over control years

ombination of projected WAR calculations and player comparisons

Weighted his projected WAR at 40% and his player comps at 60%

Comparisons - pitchers with similar:

stats through age 30

physical attributes

mechanicspitching stylepitch tendencies Slide8

Pitchers Comparisons

Tom Glavine

Roy

Oswalt

Chuck Finley

Cliff Lee

Mark

BuehrlePedro MartinezSlide9

The Johan Santana Comparison

Cole Hamel’s Pitch Breakdown compared to Johan

Santana’s

Average Velocity on FB over course of career both 91.2

Hamels

SantanaSlide10

Stage

Hamels

WAR from 31-35

Age

aWAR

GlaWAR

OswWARFinWARLeeWARBeuWARPedWARHamWARweiAVG5/3/2 projTot_AVGUP_AVGLOW_AVG265.24.76.33.64.266.43.55.052753.55.64.52.71.811.94.74.71284.2333333.45.62.80.23.59.94.44.06294.54.24.41.27.14.35.84.14.1305.15.13.14.96.53.27.83.84.88314.7666673.633.573.77.84.234.014.144.803.49324.8166674.74.34.36.53.45.74.694.034.435.083.77334.0166674.22.54.94.81.95.83.994.224.084.743.42342.9666674.50.72.85.12.723.034.203.504.152.84352.2166671.50.94.51.73.51.22.173.862.853.502.19Standard Deviation = 1.85 95% Confidence Interval = +/- 0.66 WinsSlide11

Stage 1

Hamels

WAR from 31-35

Age

WAR

4.14

4.43334.08343.50352.85Slide12

Stage

95% Confidence IntervalSlide13

Stage 2

Putting a Dollar Value on Hamels WAR

Age

WAR

Expected Value

WAR Value

NPV Expected

Contract

NPV ContractSurplus314.142$28,994,000.00$7,000,000.00$126,602,538.67$23,500,000.00$99,000,360.18 $27,602,178.49 324.426$32,534,040.00$7,350,000.00$23,500,000.00334.080$31,489,869.60$7,717,500.00$23,500,000.00343.497$28,334,196.20$8,103,375.00$23,500,000.00352.845$24,207,392.36$8,508,543.75$20,000,000.00Slide14

Stage 3

Risk Assessment- Hamels

Factors

that influence future injuries, ranked in order of importance

Past Injuries

Decreased FB Velocity

Pitch Type

Mechanics

Injury Before Age 24Pitcher Comparisons Slide15

Past Injuries

2004- Elbow Tendonitis (minors) missed 40 games (20)

2007- Elbow Ligament soreness, missed 30 games (23)

2011- Surgery on elbow in off season, returned healthy for 2012 opener

2013- Reported shoulder soreness, nothing came of it Slide16

Injury Adjustment

Age

WAR

Expected Value

WAR Value

NPV Excpected

Contract

NPV Contract

NPV Surplus ValueAdjustment after InjuryAssessment314.14$28,994,000.00$7,000,000.00$126,602,538.67$23,500,000.00$99,000,360.18$27,602,178.49$30,362,396.34324.43$32,534,040.00$7,350,000.00$23,500,000.00334.08$31,489,869.60$7,717,500.00$23,500,000.00343.50$28,334,196.20$8,103,375.00$23,500,000.00352.85$24,207,392.36$8,508,543.75$20,000,000.00Slide17
Slide18
Slide19
Slide20

Where is Hamels

most valuable? Slide21

Stage 3

Finding Possible Trade Partners

Nationals

WAR

Dodgers

WAR

Cardinals

WAR

Red SoxWARPiratesWARBlue JaysWARCubsWARMax Scherzer4.9Clayton Kershaw5.9Adam Wainwright3.9Rick Porcello2.9Gerrit Cole2.6Marcus Stroman2.8Jon Lester4Stephen Strasburg3.7Zack Greinke3.2Carlos Martinez2.3Wade Miley2.4Francisco Liriano2.3Mark Buehrle2.6Kyle Hendricks2.6Jordan Zimmermann3.7Hyun-Jin Ryu2.6Lance Lynn2.8Clay Buchholz1.7Vance Worley1.2Drew Hutchison1.8Jake Arrieta1.7Gio Gonzalez2.6Brandon McCarthy1.9Michael Wacha1.7Justin Masterson1.4A.J. Burnett1.5R.A. Dickey1.9Jason Hammel1.2Doug Fister2Brett Anderson0.7John Lackey1.8Joe Kelly0.6Jeff Locke0.3Marco Estrada0.9Tsuyoshi Wada0.8 Total War16.9 13.6 12.5 9 7.9 10 10.3With Hamels17.816.513.611.310.51212.4% Increase5.33%21.32%8.80%25.56%32.91%20.00%20.39%Slide22
Slide23

Stage 4

Valuing Prospects

Method:

Player age, position and level gave us a risk value (low, med, high)

Examined prospect ranking charts

Equated above findings to find their surplus value over first 6 years of service time Slide24

Trade Option 2 Slide25

Jameson

Taillon

(RHP)

Total Surplus Value = $26.88

Baseball America #31 Pirates #2

Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 60 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 55 | Overall:

“potential

number two starter”2nd Overall Pick in the 2010 Draft out of HSAge: 23Slide26

Austin Meadows

(OF)

Total Surplus Value= $22.54 Million

Baseball America #46 Pirates #4

Scouting grades

Hit: 60 | Power: 55 | Run: 65 | Arm: 40 | Field: 60 | Overall:

“He has a smooth left-handed swing and an advanced approach at the plate”9th pick in 2013 Draft out of HSAge: 19Slide27

Jacoby Jones

(2B/OF)

Total Surplus Value

≈ 5 Million.

Pirates

#12

Scouting grades: Hit: 40 | Power: 50 | Run: 65

|Arm

: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 45“Jones has the tools to do just about everything on the baseball field”3rd Round Pick in 2013 out of LSUAge: 22Slide28

Trade Option 2 - Pirates

NPV Received

NPV Given

Pirates

$52,009,779.69

$51,800,000.00

Get

$52,009,779.69

CASH$21,647,383.35Hamels$30,362,396.34Give$51,800,000.00Jones$4,733,333.33Meadows$21,466,666.67Taillon$25,600,000.00Slide29

Trade Option 2 - Phillies

NPV Received

NPV Given

Phillies

$51,800,000.00

$52,009,779.69

Get

$51,800,000.00

Jones$4,733,333.33Meadows$21,466,666.67Taillon$25,600,000.00Give$52,009,779.69CASH$21,647,383.35Hamels$30,362,396.34Slide30

Converting Wins to Revenue

Increase in wins effect on

playoff

evenue

Increase in wins effect on

ticket revenueSlide31

Postseason

Effect

on Revenue

% Increase in RevenueSlide32

PiratesSlide33

Pirates

2014 vs. 2013 – 14.6% increase in revenue

Average 10.1% and 14.6%

12.35% IncreaseSlide34

Playoff

Percentage vs. WinsSlide35

Non Linear RegressionSlide36

Non Linear Regression

Wins

PO%

8.73%

10.42%

12.48%7814.99%7918.07%8021.81%8126.35%8231.77%8338.13%8445.37%8553.26%8661.42%8769.33%8876.45%8982.37%9086.91%9190.12%9292.23%9393.52%9494.25%9594.65%Slide37

Trade Option 2 – Playoff Revenue Added

Wins

PO%

5.53%

6.29%

7.23%788.42%799.93%8011.88%8114.38%8217.63%8321.82%8427.18%8533.92%8642.12%8751.58%8861.77%8971.79%9080.68%9187.76%9292.81%9396.07%9498.00%9599.05%PiratesPhillies (Year 6)2014 Rev$204,000,000.00$265,000,000.00Playoffs$229,200,876.40$291,765,000.00No Playoffs$217,286,630.54$280,635,000.00Rev Dif$11,914,245.86$11,130,000.00Wins added3.83.1Wins bef84.2PO% bef46.9%Wins aft88.0PO% aft76.5%PO% Dif29.6%11.1%Rev Added$3,520,939.19$1,237,309.60Slide38

Wins vs. AttendanceSlide39

Trade Option 2 –

Ticket

Revenue Added

Pirates

Phillies (Year 6)

Wins added

3.8

3.1

Wins bef84.2Attendance bef2,566,700.0Wins aft88.0Attendance aft2,810,667.0Attendance Dif243,967197,358Avg Ticket Price$73.91$82.10Ticket Rev Added$18,031,601$16,203,092Slide40

Trade Option 2 –

Total

Revenue Added

Pirates

Phillies (Year 6)

Playoff Rev Added

$1,237,310

$3,520,939

Ticket Rev Added$16,203,092$18,031,601Sum Rev Added$17,440,401$21,552,540Total Rev Added$38,992,942Avg Rev Added$19,496,471Slide41
Slide42

Red Sox Surplus OF

Red Sox

WAR

Mookie Betts

3.4

Rusney Castillo

2.6

Daniel Nava

1.4Allen Craig0.9Shane Victorino1.5Brock Holt1.4Jackie Bradley Jr.1Slide43

Projecting Nava’s Potential Effect

Nava WAR = 1.4

Blue Jays

WAR

Cardinals

WAR

Cubs

WAR

Jose Bautista5.2Matt Holliday2.8Jorge Soler2.2Michael Saunders*1.9Jason Heyward4.9Dexter Fowler1.3Kevin Pillar0.7Jon Jay1.4Chris Denorfia0.4Dalton Pompey0.2Peter Bourjos1.4Arismendy Alcantara0.5810.54.49.210.55.315.00%0.00%20.45%Dodgers WARNationalsWARPirates WARYasiel Puig4.9Bryce Harper4.2Andrew McCutchen6.1Andre Ethier0.3Jayson Werth2.8Starling Marte3.3Carl Crawford1.6Denard Span2.7Josh Harrison2.8Joc Pederson2Tyler Moore0.1Gregory Polanco0.88.89.8138.211.113.6-6.82%13.27%4.62%Slide44

Projecting Nava’s Potential Effect

Nava WAR = 1.4

Blue Jays

WAR

Cardinals

WAR

Cubs

WAR

Who needs closer help?

Blue Jays

WAR

Cardinals

WAR

Cubs

WAR

Dodgers

WARBrett Cecil0.5Trevor Rosenthal1Hector Rondon0.3Kenley Jansen1.3NationalsWARPiratesWARRed SoxWARDrew Storen0.3Mark Melancon0.9Koji Uehara1Slide46

Who needs closer help?

Blue Jays

WAR

Cardinals

WAR

Cubs

WAR

Dodgers

WARBrett Cecil0.5Trevor Rosenthal1Hector Rondon0.3Kenley Jansen1.3NationalsWARPiratesWARRed SoxWARDrew Storen0.3Mark Melancon0.9Koji Uehara1Slide47

Trade Option 1Slide48

Manuel Margot

(OF)

Total Surplus Value= $20.4 Million

Baseball America #99 Red Sox # 5

Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 40 | Run: 65 |

Arm

: 50 | Field: 60 | Overall:

“very quick hands and a patient approach at the plate”“Already skipped a level, on track to reach the Majors at age 22”Age: 20Slide49

Eduardo Rodriguez

(LHP)

Total Surplus Value= $17.8 Million

Baseball America

#65 Red Sox #4

Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Slider: 50 | Changeup: 50 | Control: 50 | Overall: 50

“throws

his fastball in the low 90s, with good sink and movement”“profiles as a possible middle-of-the rotation starter”Age: 21Slide50

Jeff Hoffman

(RHP)

Total Surplus Value= $14.2 Million

Baseball America

#87 Blue Jays #

Scouting grades: Fastball: 65 | Curveball: 65

Changeup: 55 | Control: 55 | Overall: 55“he works in the mid 90s and hits 98 mph with his fastball”9th pick in the 2014 DraftAge: 22Slide51

Trey Ball

(LHP)

Total Surplus Value

≈ 4

million

Red Sox #11

Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Curveball: 55

| Changeup: 55 | Control: 45 | Overall: 50“An excellent athlete, Ball was considered the top two-way player in the 2013 Draft class (7th overall)”“Ball's ceiling might be the highest of all of the Red Sox pitching prospects”Age: 20Slide52

Trade Option 1 - Blue Jays

NPV Received

NPV Given

Blue Jays

$13,528,639.46

$13,533,333.33

Get

$13,528,639.46

CASH$7,437,641.72Nava$12,430,000.00Papelbon-$6,339,002.27Give$13,533,333.33Hoffman$13,533,333.33Slide53

Trade Option 1 - Red Sox

NPV Received

NPV Given

Red Sox

$52,009,779.69

$52,563,333.33

Get

$52,009,779.69

CASH$21,647,383.35Hamels$30,362,396.34Give$52,563,333.33Ball$3,800,000.00Margot$19,400,000.00Nava$12,430,000.00Rogriguez$16,933,333.33Slide54

Trade Option 1 - Phillies

NPV Received

NPV Given

Phillies

$53,666,666.67

$53,108,419.15

Get

$53,666,666.67

Ball$3,800,000.00Hoffman$13,533,333.33Margot$19,400,000.00Rogriguez$16,933,333.33Give$53,108,419.15CASH$29,085,025.08Hamels$30,362,396.34Papelbon-$6,339,002.27Slide55

Trade Option 1 – Playoff Revenue Added

Red Sox

Blue Jays

Phillies (Year 6)

2014 Rev

$357,000,000.00

$218,000,000.00

$265,000,000.00

Playoffs$393,057,000.00$240,018,000.00$291,765,000.00No Playoffs$378,063,000.00$230,862,000.00$280,635,000.00Rev Dif$14,994,000.00$9,156,000.00$11,130,000.00Wins added3.52.03.2Wins bef87.084.0PO% bef69.3%45.4%Wins aft90.586.0PO% aft88.7%61.4%PO% Dif19.3%16.1%11.47%Rev Added$4,031,067.13$1,469,993.20$1,276,635.32Slide56

Trade Option 1 –

Ticket

Revenue Added

Red Sox

Blue Jays

Phillies (Year 6)

Wins added

3.5

2.03.2Wins bef87.084.0Attendance bef2,744,5002,554,000Wins aft90.586.0Attendance aft2,969,4172,681,000Attendance Dif224,917127,000204,724Avg Ticket Price$141.59$104.54$82.10Ticket Rev Added$31,845,998$13,276,580$16,807,840Slide57

Trade Option 1 –

Ticket

Revenue Added

Red Sox

Blue Jays

Phillies (Year 6)

Wins added

3.5

Trade Option 1 –

Ticket

Revenue Added

Red Sox

Blue Jays

Phillies (Year 6)

Wins added

3.5

Trade Option 1 –

Total

Revenue Added

Red Sox

Blue Jays

Phillies (Year 6)

Playoff Rev Added

$4,031,067

$1,469,993$1,276,635Ticket Rev Added$31,845,998$13,276,580$16,807,840Sum Rev Added$35,877,065$14,746,573$18,084,476Total Rev Added$68,708,114Avg Rev Added$22,902,705Slide60

Sources

http://

www.fangraphs.com

http

://www.baseball-

reference.com

http

://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspxhttp://www.draysbay.com/2012/3/9/2847644/prospect-valueshttp://boston.redsox.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2014/#list=torhttp://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/1/19/7815629/boston-red-sox-top-20-prospects-for-2015http://www.minorleagueball.com/2015/1/23/7878709/pittsburgh-pirates-top-20-prospects-for-2015http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/philadelphia-phillies/cole-hamels/http://www.hardballtimes.com/methodology-and-calculations-of-dollars-per-war/http://www.rotochamp.com/baseball/TeamPage.aspx?TeamID=PIT&StatType=RotoChamphttp://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=of&stats=bat&type=zips&team=14&players=0http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4972&position=Phttp://www.baseball-almanac.com/baseball_attendance.shtmlhttp://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/http://blog.tiqiq.com/2014/03/2014-mlb-tickets-prices-by-team/Diamond Dollars by Vince GennaroSlide61

Questions?