Possible Scenario Michael Kabuni Background interim EPAs Benifit Canned Tuna successful case of industrial upgrade in PNG preferential access played an important role Employment ID: 799484
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Slide1
PNG Update 2018Post-Brexit Impact on PNG Canned Tuna Exports to the U.K. Possible Scenario
Michael Kabuni
Slide2Background: interim EPA’s BenifitCanned Tuna: successful case of industrial upgrade in PNG – preferential access played an important role
Employment: RD Tuna – 3, 500 employees (6 canneries)
Source of foreign Exchange: exports increased from K1.7 billion to K2.5 billion since EPA (derogation to the rule of origin played an important role)
Slide3EPA Benefits: Preferential AccessPNG Exports Canned Tuna to the U.K. Agreement at:zero tariff (0%)quota free (unlimited quantity)exception to the rules of
origin
Slide4Current iEPA
Even with 0 % tariff (exceptions to the rules of origin & quota free), PNG exports are the lower compared to SEA exporters
Anything apart from EPA, PNG would loose any competitive advantage in the UK market
Country
Tariff Regime
Rules of origin
Rate
Exports, 2016 (U.K)
PNG
IEPA
Exception to RoO
0 %
4.1
million
GBP
Indonesia
GSP
Strict RoO
21.
5
%
15.9
million
GBP
Philippines
GSP+
Strict RoO
0 %
24.3
million
GBP
Thailand
GSP
Strict RoO
21.
5 %
32.9
million
GBP
Solomon
Is.
EBA
Strict RoO
0
%
n.a
Slide5U.K Exit: Impact & Options
Tariff
Regimes
Possible
Alternatives
Challenges
EPA
Temporary Weaver
from WTO until FTANot
WTO Compatible
GSP/GSP+
Unilateral,
non-reciprocal
preference
Substantial
drop in exports (or Collapse) for PNG canneries if tariff is more than zero %
Going backwards?
MFN
Rate
24 % Tariff
Substantial
drop in exports (Collapse)
EBA
Not Applicable
PNG is not a Least Developing Country
FTA
PNG-UK
FTA
May not be UK priority
Slide6ConclusionWithout a preferential access, PNG canned tuna exports to the U.K. will drastically drop, or the canneries may collapseWill affect K17 million plus worth of canned tuna exports
, employment for the low skilledDisrupt a one of very successful industrial upgrade experiencePNG should negotiate to maintain the preferential treatments, either though FTA/GSP+ or a temporary WTO weaver