Peter Selman Newcastle University UK pfselmanyahoocouk June 2015 Twenty years of the Hague Convention a Statistical Review ID: 781351
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Slide1
Newcastle University, England, UK
Peter SelmanNewcastle University, UKpfselman@yahoo.co.ukJune 2015
Twenty years of the Hague Convention: a Statistical Review
A Demographic History of ICAAlthough intercountry adoption is often seen as starting with the adoptions from South Korea after the Korean war, there were also many adoptions during and following World War 2, while the movement of children to distant lands was a feature of British policy from the 19th century to the 1960s – the story of the child migrants. So the period 1995-2015 is just a small part of the demographic history.
Since the end of WW2 I estimate at least one million children have moved to another country for international adoption.
Slide3Slide4Sources of Data for EstimatesFew countries sending children for ICA have kept detailed records over the whole period in which such adoptions took place. An exception is Korea, which records 165,000 international adoptions since 1953.For receiving States longest sequences are for USA and Sweden. My estimates are based on data from 20-24 states.
Slide5SOUTH KOREA 1953-2010
Slide6Intercountry Adoption 1990-991990
19931995199719991990-99USA7,0937,3778,98712,74316,363102,264France
2,9562,7903,035
3,5373,597
31,703
Italyn/a
1,896
2,161
2,019
2,177
14,788
Canada
320
1,740
2,020
1,795
2,020
15,694
Sweden
1,113
934
895
834
1,019
9,670
TOTAL
14,037
(11)
17,778
(15)
22,723
(19)
26,788
(20)
32,974
(22)
222,758
(11-22)
Slide7Slide8More than 380,000 children were adopted world-wide to 23/4 countries between 2000 and 2009, the most for any decade in history.From 2010-2013 there were a further
88,000 – and 2014 total seems likely to be 12-13,000 so that we can say that since 2000 there have been at least 480,000, nearly half my total estimate of ICA since 1945. From 1995 – 2014 total would be over 600,000.ICA in the 21st Century
Slide9Intercountry Adoption 2001-20132001
20042007201020132000-13USA19,22422,88419,61312,1497,094234,032Spain
3,4285,6413,648
2,891
1,19147.636
France3,094
4,079
3,162
3,508
1,343
43,676
Italy
1,797
3,402
3,420
4,130
2,825
42,048
Canada
1,774
1,949
1,715
1,660
1,243
23,579
TOTAL
36,286
(23)
45,383
(23)
37,256
(24)
28,843
(24)
16,147
(24)
469,133 (23/4)
Slide10ICA after the Hague ConventionIn summary the ten years after the convention came into force saw the largest rise in inter-country adoption in the 70 years since WW2.
However, since 2004 there has been a dramatic decline and by 2013 the annual total was the lowest since 1993 .In the tables below States of origin which have ratified the convention are in CAPITALS
Slide11The Impact of the Hague on NumbersPreliminary Document No. 3 looks at this possibility for both receiving States and States of origin (para 61-75) and notes that
a decrease in numbers occurred in receiving States joining the convention after 2004 – e.g. Ireland and the USA - but that numbers also fell in most States joining in the preceding decade who had typically experienced an increase after ratification. The next two slides look at States of origin.
Slide12States with an increase after joining StateYear of EIF
Previous 3 yrs Subseqent 3 yearsLast 3 years2011-2013BURKINA FASO199681101225MOLDOVA199819935033
SOUTH AFRICA2003454735
498HUNGARY
2005265
348421
GUATEMALA
2003
6,500
11,532
73
MALI
2006
304
462
320
KENYA
2007
108
189
283
Slide13States with a decrease after joiningStateYear of EIF
Previous 3 yrs Subseqent 3 yearsLast 3 yrs2011-2013CHILE 1999509187335LATVIA2002417329391
CHINA 200635,83023,625
11,896VIET NAM
20122,479
1,130
MADAGASCAR
2004
1,020
427
162
CAMBODIA
2007
620
398
93
KAZAKHSTAN
2010
1,869
245
245
Slide14The Decline in ICA 2009 - 2013The total number of adoptions fell from 45,383 in 2004 to 29,482 in 2009 – a fall of 35%. In the next five years the annual total fell further to
16,147 in 2013 - a decline of 45 per cent.The next slide shows how this varied between the major receiving States
Slide15Receiving States 2009-2013
200920112013
% Change
2009
to
2013
DENMARK
496
338
174
- 65 %
SPAIN
3,006
2,573
1,191
- 60%
FRANCE
3,017
1,995
1,343
-
55%
ALL STATES
29,482
23,551
16,147
- 45 %
USA
12,753
9,320
7,094
-
44 %
CANADA
1,695
1,513
1,243
- 37 %
ITALY
3,964
4,022
2,825
-
29 %
Slide16Top 9 States of Origin : 1980-2013
1980-891998
2004
2010
2013
Korea
India
Colombia
Brazil
Sri Lanka
Chile
Philippines
Guatemala
Peru
Russia
China
Viet Nam
Korea
COLOMBIA
INDIA
Guatemala
ROMANIA
Brazil
China
Russia
Guatemala
Korea
Ukraine
COLOMBIA
Ethiopia
Haiti
INDIA
CHINA
Ethiopia
Russia
Haiti
COLOMBIA
Viet Nam
Korea
Ukraine
INDIA
CHINA
Ethiopia
Russia
Ukraine
Congo
COLOMBIA
Philippines
Haiti
BULGARIA
Slide17Slide18Intercountry Adoptions from four continents – as % of all
20042007
2010
2013
ASIA
42%
40
%
36
%
35%
EUROPE
31%
21
%
20%
23%
Latin America
17
%
23
%
19%
12%
AFRICA
7%
13
%
22%
28%
Slide19Adoptions from Asia
Since 1998 China has been the most important source of children worldwide: 140,000 adopted between 1992 and 2013.Until 1990 Korea was the main source of children for ICA and by 2013 had sent more than 165,000. In the 1980s 3 of the top 5 states of origin were Asian: Korea, India & Sri Lanka.
In 2004 42 per cent of adoptions were from Asia but by 2013
this had fallen to 35 per cent.
Slide20Slide21Adoptions from Asia 2003-20132003
20052007201020132003-13CHINA11,23114,4838,7485,4293,406
86,873Korea2,332
2,121
1,226
1,125227
15,623
VIET
NAM
931
1,198
1,698
1,260
295
11,379
INDIA
1,169
875
1,013
607
351
8,438
PHILIPPINES
412
508
571
496
534
5,448
THAILAND
489
466
442
303
306
4,236
All
Asia
17,608
20,559
14,767
10,238
5,566
142,273
Slide22CHINA 2003-2013 Country
200320052007
2009
2011
2013
2014
USA
6,857
7,903
5,453
3,000
2,589
2,306
2,040
Spain
1,043
2,753
1,059
573
677
293
Canada
1,115
960
662
377
288
216
157
Netherlands
567
666
365
283
197
136
137
Sweden
373
462
280
248
107
59
50
France
360
458
176
102
87
99
Italy
0
0
0
23
142
161
TOTAL
11,231
14,483
8,748
5,012
4,373
3,406
Slide23INDIA 1998-2013Country
199820022006
2011
2013
2014
USA
478
466
320
228
119
136
Italy
194
102
136
148
76
Canada
179
127
36
54
20
36
Denmark
120
93
30
7
3
Spain
97
109
79
35
7
Sweden
78
60
38
23
5
7
TOTAL
1,618
1,247
846
627
351
Slide24Eastern Europe 2003-2013
200320042008
2013
Russia
7,737
9,384
4,132
1,793
Ukraine
2,052
2,021
1,577
642
BULGARIA
965
387
140
411
Belarus
656
616
7
6
ROMANIA
471
289
0
15
POLAND
347
420
408
304
LITHUANIA
85
103
127
77
LATVIA
67
127
90
131
ALL EUROPE
13,189
14,011
7,105
3,777
Slide25RUSSIA 2004-2013
200420052007
2011
2013
2014
US (FY)
5,865
4,639
2,310
970
250
2
Spain
1,618
1,262
955
712
350
Italy
738
628
492
781
730
France
445
357
402
286
185
Germany
189
111
195
231
66
46
Israel
95
73
108
102
67
Total
9,384
7,493
4,881
3,424
1,793
Slide26Intercountry Adoption from Africa
For many years intercountry adoption from Africa was rare. However, the growing demand for young infants - and fall in numbers from many other States of origin – has changed all that, notably in Ethiopia, which sent 4,575 children in 2009. Numbers have fallen in most countries since then but rose between 2010 and 2013 in Uganda (82 to 292) and Congo RD (
from 181 to 587). Congo has now suspended international adoptions.
Slide27% of Adoptions from Africa2003
200520072009
2013
All countries: % of adoptions from Africa
6 %
8 %
13 %
22 %
28 %
% of adoptions to USA from Africa
2 %
4 %
9 %
23 %
30 %
% of adoptions to France from Africa
24 %
26 %
29 %
33 %
42%
% of adoptions to Spain from Africa
4 %
5 %
15 %
26 %
23 %
Slide28TOP AFRICAN STATES 2012-3
201320122009
2007
2003
Ethiopia
2,005
2,800
4,575
3,034
855
Congo DR
587
518
156
65
26
Uganda
292
249
74
57
12
Nigeria
243
266
185
83
64
Sth
AFRICA
222
173
292
212
188
Ghana
190
186
121
58
18
Mali
13
154
196
158
136
All Africa
4,450
5,292
6,510
4,820
2,344
Slide29Standardised Rates 2009AFRICA
Adoptions per 1,000 birthsOtherCountriesAdoptions per 1,000 births
Peak rate
(year)
Ethiopia
1.28
HAITI
4.52
9.6
(2010)
Ghana
0.5
Ukraine
3.24
5.0
(2003)
Cote d’Ivoire
0.4
Korea
3.16
13.3
(1985)
MALI
0.35
Russia
2.59
7.7
(2004)
S AFRICA
0.27
Guatemala
1.75
10.8
(2007)
Congo RD
0.05
CHINA
0.28
0.8
(2005)
Nigeria
0.03
INDIA
0.03
0.05
(2003)
Slide30Adoption from Latin America
In the 1980s six of the top 10 sending countries were from Latin America. In 2008 there were three Guatemala, Colombia and Haiti; by 2013 only one: Colombia. By 2008, Haiti had became a major source for France, Canada, the Netherlands and the USA , peaking in 2010 after the earthquake.
Brazil still sends 3-
500 children a year but most are older or have special needs.
Chile
and El Salvador send less than 100 a
year, compared
to 5,000+
and
2,000+
respectively between 1980 and 1989.
Slide31Latin America 2003-20132003
20052007201020132000-13GUATEMALA2,6763,8734,854582624,164COLOMBIA1,7501,4721,635
1,82856616,152HAITI
1,049922
7552,489
54611,124
BRAZIL
472
479
485
380
241
4,691
PERU
114
174
171
24
111
1,577
BOLIVIA
274
252
152
73
22
1,564
MEXICO
122
163
181
117
37
1,354
Slide32The Changing Profile of ICA“Special Needs” adoption is becoming more common and there are a number of other characteristics of international adoptions which have changed alongside the global decline in numbers – older age of children placed and increased number of sibling groups.
Slide33Age of Children Adopted in Key receiving States 2005-2013
20052009
2013
% over
5
% under
1
% over
5
% under
1
% over
5
% under
1
Italy
47%
6%
58%
7%
53%
5%
France
24%
32%
34%
21%
43%
8%
USA
16%
42%
25%
25%
n/a
n/a
Iceland
6%
17%
29%
6%
n/a
n/a
Australia
8%
47%
9%
37%
19%
22%
Slide34SPECIAL NEEDS ADOPTIONFor the 2010 Hague Special Commission, states were asked to indicate how many of the children adopted had “special needs”, defined as“those who may be suffering from a behaviour disorder or trauma, physically or mentally disabled, older children (usually above 7 years of age) or are part of a sibling group”There remains a lack of agreement about what exactly the term covers – Italy has ‘speciale’ and ‘
particolare’The issue of special needs adoption is seen as a key topic for this Special Commission
Slide35Children with special needs- selected sending countries (Hague
) 20052009
2013
CHILE
100%
100%
75%
LATVIA
53%
80%
97%
ALBANIA
59%
66%
n/a
LITHUANIA
30%
71%
71%
CHINA
9%
49%
n/a
Slide36% of Children Adopted from China with special needs (Hague)
20052007
2009
Sweden
6%
25%
69%
Netherlands
13%
42%
66%
USA
14%
42%
61%
All States
9%
30%
49%
France
6%
13%
34%
Norway
0.1
%
7
%
28%
Spain
0.1%
4%
9%