st Century Deterrence Wes Rumbaugh PONI Capstone Conference March 16 2017 Missile Defenses Role in Cold War Deterrence Missile defenses focused on strategic rather than regional defense ID: 799319
Download The PPT/PDF document "Missile Defense’s Role in 21" is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to download and print the materials on this web site for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this agreement.
Slide1
Missile Defense’s Role in 21
st Century Deterrence
Wes Rumbaugh
PONI Capstone Conference
March 16, 2017
Slide2Missile Defense’s Role in Cold War Deterrence
Missile defenses focused on strategic rather than regional defenseCentral problem is strategic stability between United States-Soviet Union
Considered destabilizing to balance of terror
Attempt to break out of MAD
Considered to enable U.S. first strike Exacerbates ‘use or lose’ for Soviets in crisesAlso futile and destabilizing because of action-reaction dynamicsEffectively ended by 1972 ABM Treaty Reinvigorated briefly by SDI debate
2
Slide3The Current Missile Defense DebateFocused on dual questions of affordability and technical feasibility
“Hitting a bullet with a bullet”High costs
These issues
all
come back to deterrence valueFeasibility is a function of acceptable costAcceptable cost is a function of priorityThe future of EPAA and relationship of missile defense towards RussiaRepeated statements that missile defense is a NATO alliance-wide missionAlso clear that its currently not directed at Russia
3
Slide421st Century NATO Deterrence Environment
Significant missile proliferationShort-range Iskander ballistic missiles
Longer range cruise missiles tested in Syria
Continued Iranian missile testing after JCPOA
Missiles major component of anti-access/area denial thicketsThinking about limited nuclear conflict as a means to coerce in regional conflictsBy virtue of size of new proliferators’ arsenals (Iran JCPOA breakout)Doctrinal developments in Russia
4
Slide55
Slide66
Slide77
Slide88
Slide99
Slide1010
Slide11Missile Defense in A2/ADAdversaries likely to attempt fait accompli
strategiesAttempt to create facts on the ground and raise costs to U.S. and NATO to reverse situation
U.S. has to flow forces into theater
Missile defenses can protect those forces- a capability essential to extended deterrence
Allows smaller permanent forward deployed forces Prevents coercion once facts on ground changeAssures allies, both presence and credibilityComplicates adversary planning- introduces uncertainty11
Slide12Missile Defense in Limited Nuclear ConflictBrad Roberts “red zone” conflicts
Attempted use of nuclear weapons below perceived retaliatory threshold of United States“Escalate to deescalate”
Missile defense makes threading the needle between U.S. retaliatory threshold and effective strikes more difficult
Allows United States time in these crises to avoid preemption and escalation
Increases credibility of threats because reduces need to rely on them12
Slide13Missile Defense as Assurance to AlliesCan be deployed on allied territory
Visible commitment to their securityTrip wire forceBolsters their resolve should conflict break out
Ability to defeat limited attacks from future Iranian missiles
Important to prevent decoupling of allies
Similar tactic used by Saddam Hussein in Gulf WarThis is especially important at the momentConcerns in Europe about American commitmentAlso rising trends in European society that cause concern13
Slide14Missile Defense and Arms RacingCold War assumption that any defensive gains offset by offensive
build-upFeasible for major powers like Soviet Union and United States
Also assumes defenses must be perfect to be valuable
Modern environment may change this assumption
Sanctions are causing havoc in the Russian economyEven limited defenses may spur fears of future expansionMyriad reasons for arms build-upsQuestions about sustainability of current modernization14
Slide15Offense-Defense Integration Series of Joint Staff publications highlights important role of offense in MD
Documents as of now are mostly aspirationalSimply “playing catch” is unsustainable
Need to look “left of launch”
Significant implications for both arms control and deterrence
Need for declaratory policy addressed by 2017 NDAARole of nuclear weapons in “left of launch” missile defense15
Slide16Conclusions2017 NDAA requirement for a Missile Defeat Review suggests integration both of offense and air defense to be a priority
Evaluating solutions for cruise missile defense at Aegis Ashore sitesINF Treaty Preservation Act
Need to overcome “Russia allergy” when discussing European missile defense
Accelerating efforts to build effective capacity
Includes improved sensor coverageIntegration of current assets acts as a force multiplier16