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12 March 2015 – Lancaster Environment Centre 12 March 2015 – Lancaster Environment Centre

12 March 2015 – Lancaster Environment Centre - PowerPoint Presentation

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12 March 2015 – Lancaster Environment Centre - PPT Presentation

SOER 2015 A comprehensive assessment of past trends and future outlooks and of opportunities to recalibrate policies knowledge investments and innovations in line with the longterm vision of the 7 ID: 633797

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Slide1

12 March 2015 – Lancaster Environment CentreSlide2

SOER 2015

A comprehensive assessment of past trends and future outlooks and of opportunities

to recalibrate

policies, knowledge, investments and innovations in line with the long-term vision of the 7th EAP.

SOER 2015 Synthesis report

SOER 2015 Assessment of global megatrends

11 briefings

Global

megatrends

25

briefings

European

briefings

9

briefings

Cross-country

comparisons

39+3

briefings

Countries

and

regionsSlide3

The policy context

Source: EEA Multiannual

Work Programme

2014–2018Slide4

Vision of the 7th Environment Action Programme

In 2050, we live well, within the planet's ecological

limits

.

Our

prosperity and healthy environment stem from an innovative,

circular economy

where nothing is wasted and where natural resources are managed sustainably, and

biodiversity

is protected, valued and restored in ways that enhance our society's

resilience

. Our low-carbon growth has long been decoupled from resource use, setting the pace for a global safe and sustainable society.’

Source: 7th

EU Environment Action ProgrammeSlide5
Slide6

Key messages from SOER 2015

Policies

have delivered substantial benefits for the environment, economy and people’s well-being; major challenges remain

Europe faces persistent and emerging challenges linked to production and consumption systems, and the rapidly changing global context Achieving the 2050 vision

requires system transitions

, driven by more ambitious actions on policy, knowledge, investments and innovationDoing so presents major opportunities

to boost Europe’s economy and employment and put Europe at the frontier of science and innovation

© Daniel Danko, Environment & Me /EEA Slide7

Eco-industries

have prospered despite the recession in Europe

© Daniel Danko, Environment & Me /EEA

Eco-industry value added

Eco-industry employment

Total EU GDP

Total EU employment

Source: Eurostat, 2014.Slide8

Assessing

past trends and future outlooks

The Synthesis report

addresses the three thematic priority objectives of the 7th EAP:Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capitalResource efficiency and the low-carbon economySafeguarding from environmental risks to health

Two overall patterns emerge

:Resource efficiency improvements have been notable but have not translated into increased ecosystem and social resilienceThe long-term outlook is

often less positive than recent trends

© Ana Skobe, Environment & Me /EEA Slide9

Thematic priority objective 1:

Protecting, conserving and enhancing natural capital

Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.

 

Past (5–10

year) trends

Progress to policy targets

Terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity

Land use and soil functions

 

No target

 

Ecological status of freshwater bodies

 

Water quality and nutrient loading

  

Air pollution and its ecosystem impacts

 

Marine and coastal biodiversity

 

Climate change impacts on ecosystems

 

No target

Improving trends dominate

Trends show mixed picture

Deteriorating trends dominate

L

argely

on track

Partially on track

Largely not on track

20+ years outlookSlide10

Thematic

priority objective 2:Resource

efficiency and the low-carbon economy

Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report. 

Past (5–10

year) trends

Progress to policy targets

Material resource efficiency and material use

No target

Waste management

 

Greenhouse gas emissions and climate change mitigation

 

/

Energy consumption and fossil fuel use

  

Transport demand and related environmental impacts

 

Industrial pollution to air, soil and water

 

Water use and water quantity stress

 

Improving trends dominate

Trends show mixed picture

Deteriorating trends dominate

L

argely

on track

Partially on track

Largely not on track

20+ years outlook

 

 

 

 Slide11

Thematic priority objective

3:Safeguarding from environmental risks to health

Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report.

 

Past

(

5–10

year) trends

Progress to policy targets

Water pollution and related environmental health risks

/

Air pollution and related environmental health risks

 

Noise pollution (especially in urban areas)

 

Urban systems and grey infrastructure

  

No target 

Climate change and related environmental health risks

 

No target 

Chemicals and related environmental health risks

 

/

Improving trends dominate

Trends show mixed picture

Deteriorating trends dominate

L

argely

on track

Partially on track

Largely not on track

20+ years outlook

 

/

 

 

 

  Slide12

The overall picture:

Efficiency improvements have not secured long-term resilience

Protecting, conserving

and enhancing natural capital

Resource efficiency

and the low-carbon

economy

Safeguarding from

environmental risks to health

Past

(5–10)

year

trends

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Source: EEA. SOER 2015 Synthesis report

.

Improving trends dominate

Trends show mixed picture

Deteriorating trends dominate

20+ years

outlook

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

/

 

 

 Slide13

Understanding past trends and

future outlooks

Two major factors

explain the uneven progress and prospects:The changing global context Competition for resources

Pressures from outside Europe

Planetary boundariesSystemic

characteristics of environmental challengesComplexity

UncertaintyEnvironmental, social and economic interdependencies

© Ana Skobe, Environment & Me /EEA Slide14

Understanding past trends and future outlooks:

Natural capital

Long time-lags between reduced pressures and positive changes

Pressures on ecosystems remain considerableExternal trends can counteract the positive effects of local efforts © Alex Dumitrescu, Environment &

Me /

EEA

Source: EEA, SOER 2015 Synthesis.Slide15

Understanding

past trends and future outlooks:

Resource

efficiency and the low-carbon economyProduction-consumption systems support livelihoods, creating lock-insGlobalisation of production and consumption constrains EU influenceMore efficient production lowers costs, incentivising more consumption

© Keith Arkins, Environment & Me /EEA

Source: EEA, 2014, Why did greenhouse gas emissions change in the period 1990-2013?

GHG intensity

GHG emissions

GDPSlide16

Understanding past trends and future

outlooks:

Safeguarding

from environmental risks to healthImpacts resulting from climate change are expected to worsenChanging exposures, urbanisation and ageing increase vulnerabilityGood urban design delivers benefits to health and well-being

© Alexander Goranov, Environment & Me /EEA

Sources:

Eurostat,

Gisco - Urban Audit 2012;

EEA, AirBase and Indicator CSI004.Slide17

Looking ahead:

Systemic challenges require systemic solutions

Not just incremental efficiency

gains

but

fundamental

transitions in

food, energy, mobility, finance and fiscal systems

through profound changes

in dominant

practices, policies and thinking.

Source

: TeslaSlide18

Source: EEA.

Reducing environmental pressures or offsetting harmful effects

Precautionary principle: avoid potential harm (or counter-productive actions) in highly complex and uncertain situations

Remediating environmental degradation (where possible) or other costs imposed on society

Some environmental change inevitable: anticipate adverse effects of specific environmental changes

Looking

ahead:

Building on 40 years of European and national policiesSlide19

Looking ahead:

Innovation

Economic, technological and social innovations can support long-term transitions to a green

economy This requires upscaling niche innovations such as collaborative consumption and prosumerismPublicly funded research has fostered many of the most important and commercially successful innovations©

Victor Troyanov, Environment & Me /EEA Slide20

Looking ahead:

Investing today for the long term

European investment needs are huge and today’s choices will determine our future pathways of

developmentThe EU has committed to spend at least 20% of the 2014-2020 budget on transforming Europe into a clean and competitive low-carbon economyNeed to avoid investments that lock in existing patterns and limit options

Shifting taxation and phasing out environmentally harmful subsidies can stimulate investment and innovation in this direction

© Victor Troyanov,

Environment & Me /EEA Slide21

Looking ahead:

Expanding the knowledge base

SOER 2015 knowledge base will not be fit for SOER 2020

Need for improved knowledge on long-term systemic perspectives Environmental knowledge community (EKC) and key Knowledge Innovation Projects (KIP)Strengthening science-policy-society interfaces and citizen engagement are important parts of transition to a green economy

©

Victor Troyanov, Environment & Me /EEA Slide22

Looking ahead:

SOER 2015 as a resource

©

Victor Troyanov, Environment & Me /EEA Slide23

©

Victor Troyanov,

Environment & Me /EEA

Looking ahead:SOER 2015 as a resourceSlide24

©

Victor Troyanov,

Environment & Me /EEA

Looking ahead:SOER 2015 as a resourceSlide25

©

Victor Troyanov,

Environment & Me /EEA

Looking ahead:SOER 2015 as a resourceSlide26

Looking ahead:

Living well within the limits of the planet by 2050

Achieving the 2050 vision is possible but it depends on our actions and investments today.

Systemic change must deliver decent employment, opportunities and fairness, as well as respecting environmental limits. SOER 2015 illustrates the success of European policy. We should be confident in entering a new stage of environmental governance.

©

Victor Troyanov, Environment & Me /EEA Slide27

Explore SOER 2015 online:

eea.europa.eu/soerSlide28

Stay informed about SOER 2015 and receive our

products

 sign

up at:http://eea-subscriptions.eu/subscribeThank you!

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