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Giving you the tools to understand, plan and focus on the p Giving you the tools to understand, plan and focus on the p

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Giving you the tools to understand, plan and focus on the p - PPT Presentation

Decision Workshops The problem 2 Actors always rehearse 3 Presenters sometimes rehearse 4 and we know that the more we rehearse and practice the more we improve 5 but we dont properly rehearse the most important political interactions ID: 384884

program dilemma decision explorer dilemma program explorer decision action confrontation general workshops rupert smith average analysis rehearse war good

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Slide1

Giving you the tools to understand, plan and focus on the politics of decision making

Decision WorkshopsSlide2

The problem

2Slide3

Actors always rehearse…

3Slide4

Presenters sometimes rehearse …

4Slide5

and we know that the more we rehearse and practice the more we improve….

5Slide6

but we don’t properly rehearse the most important “political” interactions

6Slide7

Instead there is a tendency to just rely on the unaided judgment of ourselves or of experts

Even though the experts often disagree with each otherSlide8

But how good is this?Slide9

These people were not short of expert advisors when they chose to invade Iraq and Afghanistan

But had they thought through the consequences ?Slide10

The scientific evidence is in:Slide11

Using judgment for political decision making is

little better than random chance

See

supporting evidence

in

Appendix at end of presentationSlide12

So what can be done?Slide13

Decision workshops gives you a way to rehearse and plan these important political decisions.

13

By using Confrontation AnalysisSlide14

Development of Confrontation Analysis

14Slide15

Rupert Smith

Bosnia 1995: Britain's last victorious war?

General

General Rupert Smith: Commander of UN forces in Bosnia:

Responsible for breaking siege of Sarajevo.

General Smith was not reluctant to tell people how he had succeeded

He wrote the book “The Utility of Force” and worked with….Slide16

Rupert Smith

Working with Rupert Smith…

General

The Late Professor Nigel Howard

Who

formulated Confrontation

Analysis

from

basis

of

Game Theory.

Since Professor Howard’s death the theory has been picked up and developed by…Slide17

Rupert Smith

Carrying on the good work….

General

Mike Young

Who has refined and built on this theoretical framework and encapsulated it in the Dilemma Explorer program to produce a faster, easier and better means of exploring confrontations and rehearsing negotiations.Slide18

Our process

18

Building upon the foundations of the mathematical process of Confrontation Analysis, Decision Workshops has developed a unique modelling method and a proprietary software tool to that can analyse complex, multiplayer issues.Slide19

Our process

Define the problem

D

efine players, what they can do, and what they want to happen

Plan and develop strategy using Confrontation Analysis

Test and refine strategy in Decision Workshop

Present a clear focused strategy for action

19Slide20

The Dilemma Explorer program in action

20Slide21

21

Firstly, we help you understand the scenarios by structuring in important key decisions

The Dilemma Explorer program in actionSlide22

22

And then gather an unambiguous clear statement of all parties’ desires

The Dilemma Explorer program in actionSlide23

23

We then decide what will happen if no further progress can be made

The Dilemma Explorer program in actionSlide24

24

And indicate where distrust is present and where people don’t believe threats or promises

The Dilemma Explorer program in actionSlide25

The Dilemma Explorer program in action

25

To produce a succinct one screen summary of the situationSlide26

The Dilemma Explorer program in action

26

The computer then automatically shows the areas of difficulty known as DILEMMAS that must be eliminated to get a trustworthy agreementSlide27

27

And can give an exhaustive list of possible ways forward to eliminate each dilemma

The Dilemma Explorer program in actionSlide28

The participants use the program on the screen during the negotiation rehearsal to:

28

Keep focus on the subject under negotiation

Give a clear language in which to communicate

Understand the dilemmas and powers of each participant

Indicate when progress has been made by changing the screen

Look for different strategies out of an impasseSlide29

Decision Workshops track record

29Slide30

Decision Workshops held

Libya during the war :

For Cranfield University

Libya at the end of the war

:

For Defence Science and Technology Laboratories

Iran Israel and the USA

: Dealing with the Iranian Nuclear threat :

For Cranfield

University

Follow-on workshop for

D

efence

I

ntelligence

S

ervices

The Euro crisis:

For city of London think tank Z/Yen

(Pending) Middle East g

overnment

:

Examining Sunni

/

Shia splitSlide31

Business deals

For BAE Systems: 19 projects including:

Getting funding from UK MoD for an unmanned aircraft (Mantis)

Impact of Strategic Defence Reviews

A400M project (twice)

Partnering deals for bidsSlide32

Testimonial

32

“The technology is simple but the underlying psychology, appealing to the individual’s natural will to win, mirroring real business behaviours, is truly and very powerfully innovative.”

Air Vice Marshal Steve Nicholl (Ret’d): Director Military Requirements, BAE SystemsSlide33

Summary

Tried, tested, powerful and unique system.

Structured way of rehearsing negotiations and likely outcomes.

High probability of behaviours reflecting reality, enabling cost-effective decision making and the efficient use and deployment of resources.

Useful for government, military, commercial & individual applications.

33Slide34

Appendix: Evidence to support the benefits of role play

34Slide35

How good are we at forecasting how others will behave in conflicts?

Obscure conflictsSlide36

What we would expect from random chance ?

3 possible answers:

33% probability of getting it right by guessing

6 answers

=17%

Average

4 answers =25%Slide37

Using judgment is often WORSE then guessing !

AverageSlide38

Using Game Theory fares no better..

AverageSlide39

But a role play achieves substantially better forecasts

Back

Average