Decision Workshops The problem 2 Actors always rehearse 3 Presenters sometimes rehearse 4 and we know that the more we rehearse and practice the more we improve 5 but we dont properly rehearse the most important political interactions ID: 384884
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Giving you the tools to understand, plan and focus on the politics of decision making
Decision WorkshopsSlide2
The problem
2Slide3
Actors always rehearse…
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Presenters sometimes rehearse …
4Slide5
and we know that the more we rehearse and practice the more we improve….
5Slide6
but we don’t properly rehearse the most important “political” interactions
6Slide7
Instead there is a tendency to just rely on the unaided judgment of ourselves or of experts
Even though the experts often disagree with each otherSlide8
But how good is this?Slide9
These people were not short of expert advisors when they chose to invade Iraq and Afghanistan
But had they thought through the consequences ?Slide10
The scientific evidence is in:Slide11
Using judgment for political decision making is
little better than random chance
See
supporting evidence
in
Appendix at end of presentationSlide12
So what can be done?Slide13
Decision workshops gives you a way to rehearse and plan these important political decisions.
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By using Confrontation AnalysisSlide14
Development of Confrontation Analysis
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Rupert Smith
Bosnia 1995: Britain's last victorious war?
General
General Rupert Smith: Commander of UN forces in Bosnia:
Responsible for breaking siege of Sarajevo.
General Smith was not reluctant to tell people how he had succeeded
He wrote the book “The Utility of Force” and worked with….Slide16
Rupert Smith
Working with Rupert Smith…
General
The Late Professor Nigel Howard
Who
formulated Confrontation
Analysis
from
basis
of
Game Theory.
Since Professor Howard’s death the theory has been picked up and developed by…Slide17
Rupert Smith
Carrying on the good work….
General
Mike Young
Who has refined and built on this theoretical framework and encapsulated it in the Dilemma Explorer program to produce a faster, easier and better means of exploring confrontations and rehearsing negotiations.Slide18
Our process
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Building upon the foundations of the mathematical process of Confrontation Analysis, Decision Workshops has developed a unique modelling method and a proprietary software tool to that can analyse complex, multiplayer issues.Slide19
Our process
Define the problem
D
efine players, what they can do, and what they want to happen
Plan and develop strategy using Confrontation Analysis
Test and refine strategy in Decision Workshop
Present a clear focused strategy for action
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The Dilemma Explorer program in action
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Firstly, we help you understand the scenarios by structuring in important key decisions
The Dilemma Explorer program in actionSlide22
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And then gather an unambiguous clear statement of all parties’ desires
The Dilemma Explorer program in actionSlide23
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We then decide what will happen if no further progress can be made
The Dilemma Explorer program in actionSlide24
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And indicate where distrust is present and where people don’t believe threats or promises
The Dilemma Explorer program in actionSlide25
The Dilemma Explorer program in action
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To produce a succinct one screen summary of the situationSlide26
The Dilemma Explorer program in action
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The computer then automatically shows the areas of difficulty known as DILEMMAS that must be eliminated to get a trustworthy agreementSlide27
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And can give an exhaustive list of possible ways forward to eliminate each dilemma
The Dilemma Explorer program in actionSlide28
The participants use the program on the screen during the negotiation rehearsal to:
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Keep focus on the subject under negotiation
Give a clear language in which to communicate
Understand the dilemmas and powers of each participant
Indicate when progress has been made by changing the screen
Look for different strategies out of an impasseSlide29
Decision Workshops track record
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Decision Workshops held
Libya during the war :
For Cranfield University
Libya at the end of the war
:
For Defence Science and Technology Laboratories
Iran Israel and the USA
: Dealing with the Iranian Nuclear threat :
For Cranfield
University
Follow-on workshop for
D
efence
I
ntelligence
S
ervices
The Euro crisis:
For city of London think tank Z/Yen
(Pending) Middle East g
overnment
:
Examining Sunni
/
Shia splitSlide31
Business deals
For BAE Systems: 19 projects including:
Getting funding from UK MoD for an unmanned aircraft (Mantis)
Impact of Strategic Defence Reviews
A400M project (twice)
Partnering deals for bidsSlide32
Testimonial
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“The technology is simple but the underlying psychology, appealing to the individual’s natural will to win, mirroring real business behaviours, is truly and very powerfully innovative.”
Air Vice Marshal Steve Nicholl (Ret’d): Director Military Requirements, BAE SystemsSlide33
Summary
Tried, tested, powerful and unique system.
Structured way of rehearsing negotiations and likely outcomes.
High probability of behaviours reflecting reality, enabling cost-effective decision making and the efficient use and deployment of resources.
Useful for government, military, commercial & individual applications.
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Appendix: Evidence to support the benefits of role play
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How good are we at forecasting how others will behave in conflicts?
Obscure conflictsSlide36
What we would expect from random chance ?
3 possible answers:
33% probability of getting it right by guessing
6 answers
=17%
Average
4 answers =25%Slide37
Using judgment is often WORSE then guessing !
AverageSlide38
Using Game Theory fares no better..
AverageSlide39
But a role play achieves substantially better forecasts
Back
Average