events Study released in summer 2014 Carried out in cooperation with UNDP and OCHA Study carried out by UNIDIR Borrie and Caughley Oslo conference summary point 1 It is unlikely that any state or international body could address the immediate humanitarian emergency caused by a ID: 263386
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Slide1
Challenges to UN emergency preparedness, humanitarian coordination & response to nuclear detonation events
Study released in summer 2014
Carried out in cooperation with UNDP and OCHAStudy carried out by UNIDIR (Borrie and Caughley)Slide2
Oslo conference summary point #1:
“It is unlikely that any state or international body could address the immediate humanitarian emergency caused by a nuclear weapon detonation in an adequate manner and provide sufficient assistance to those affected.
Moreover, it might not be possible to establish such capacities, even if it were attempted.”Led to peer-reviewed UNIDIR research, funded by governments of Norway and Ireland.Slide3
3 Questions
What would happen if a NWD event occurred?What points of reference and procedures does the UN have?Bearing in mind the answers to these questions… currently,
what could – or would – the UN-coordinated humanitarian system do?Slide4
Humanitarian cluster systemFigure courtesy of IASC Slide5
About riskRisk is “the probability of an event multiplied by its consequences”.
NWD events in populated areas are low probability / high consequenceLow probability events are not
no probability eventsWe assume the risk of a NWD event to be greater than zero, but don’t quantify it.We don’t take a view on whether a single or multiple NWD event is more likely.Slide6
ImportantNuclear weapon detonation events (NWD):
Have certain things in common with Civil nuclear/radiological emergenciesSudden onset major natural disasters (e.g. earthquakes, tsunamis, mass fires
But they are different in important waysGreat numbers of people with 3rd degree burns, multiple traumaRadiation sickness, fallout etc.Slide7
Courtesy of
Christopf Wirz, Spiez LabSlide8
Blast
Thermal radiation (heat)
Many fires
Prompt radiation
Radioactive fallout
Other effects incl flash and electro-magnetic pulse (EMP)
Fear, disruption etc
Blast and heat effects will cause the greatest harm and destruction.
EffectsSlide9
Our research indicatesHuge variation in potential scenarios in which nuclear weapon detonation events could occur.
However, the Oslo conference finding appears to be valid in most plausible scenarios involving a nuclear weapon detonation event in a highly populated area.Findings associated with such a “reality check”…. Slide10
The current level of
awareness
within the humanitarian system
is
low
about the specificities of NWD or its ability to respond to them.
For the UN to be called upon presupposes
the situation is already beyond a state’s capacity to respond
effectively to assist the victims (i.e widespread harm has already occurred / is occurring).
The UN is unlikely to be able to offer coordinated humanitarian assistance in the
immediate
aftermath
Could
make a
difference in several ways though, including in longer term thru IASC cluster system
6 main findings (1)Slide11
At present there are
several major challenges
to prompt and effective use of the humanitarian cluster system in the context of a NWD event.
Threat of
further detonations
could vastly complicate humanitarian decision making.
T
he best approach is
prevention
However, UN could plan for the likely challenges of ‘lower-end’ NWD events since this could make a difference to level of overall suffering: we would argue it has a duty to do so.
6 main findings (2)Slide12
Give focused attention to the issue in the IASC
Assign responsibility to an IASC task team, and invite IACRNE to participate
Study and simulate varied NWD scenarios with a view to humanitarian response
Include representative NWD scenarios in future revisions of plans for large, complex, sudden-onset disasters
Review current capacities and plans
Study findings suggest the humanitarian system consider the following:Slide13
Prompt relevant humanitarian and specialized agencies (e.g. IAEA, WHO, CTBTO) to clarify their mandates, policies, roles and capabilities with a view to response to NWD events.
Lend thought to how inter-state processes could impinge on timely humanitarian response
« Winging it is not a plan »
Study findings suggest states consider the following:Slide14
Knowledge
for Action
Full study is available at:
www.unidir.org/illusionofsafety
Available in PDF for free, or printed copies can be ordered
There will also be an article on the study in the Sept/Oct 2014 issue of the
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists