Uncertainty Karen Akerlof PhD Research Assistant Professor Center for Climate Change Communication George Mason University What are the social science fields that study decisionmaking under conditions of uncertainty ID: 551993
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Slide1
Communicating Uncertainty
Karen
Akerlof
, PhD
Research Assistant Professor
Center for Climate Change Communication
George Mason UniversitySlide2
What are the social science fields that study decision-making under conditions of uncertainty?
Decision sciences
Risk perception
Human dimensionsCommunication (science communication, health communication)Public policy
Most of these social
scientists are p
sychologists, or are in fields that use
psychological theoriesSlide3
RiskRisk equals probability times
magnitude
Risk
is a situation or event where something of human value (including humans themselves) has been put at stake and where the outcome is uncertainRisk equals hazard times outragetechnical
e
motional,
v
alue-based
The field of risk perception (psychometrics) has been driven by the question of
why technical experts and non-experts v
iew risks so
differentlySlide4
Paul Slovic
Decision Research
University of Oregon
Baruch FischhoffCarnegie MellonDaniel Kahneman
PrincetonSlide5
Van der Linden, S. (2015). The social-psychological determinants of climate change risk perceptions: Towards a comprehensive model.
Journal of Environmental Psychology
,
41, 112–124. These fields are heavily quantitative: modeling; experimental researchSlide6
Social science frequently follows government priorities: nanotechnology, disaster recovery (Hurricane Sandy), climate change
… fisheries?Slide7
GoalTo communicate
the information that people need to make
choices.
* Social science can be used to inform decisions about WHAT to communicate and HOW to communicate it.Slide8
People Can View Physical Reality Very DifferentlySlide9
Factors that influence communication about uncertainty
1) Social context (trust; values; what is at “risk”?)
2)
Type of decision being informed (what types of technical information about uncertainty are needed)3) “Curse” of expert knowledge4) Heuristics and biases (that we all have)Slide10
Social context
1) Risk is socially constructed by
different groups.
Facilitate stakeholder self-identification with the decision-making group.2) Trust highly influences how people process risk. Instead of asking for trust, demonstrate accountability: transparency, external oversight, audits, advisory panels, contractual agreements. Slide11
Type of decision:
1) Which option is best?
Portray varied
sources of uncertainty—not just variability in data but biases from judgement, assumptions, and methodological practices. Develop protocols for reporting these sources. h
ow good are the predictions of outcomes?Slide12
Fischhoff, B., & Davis, A. L. (2014). Communicating scientific uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,
111
(Supplement 4), 13664–13671.
Slide13
Type of decision:
2) What options are possible?
Decision makers need to understand scientific processes, and related uncertainties, in order to consider their options.
Lay and expert mental models of scientific processes frequently differ. Identify problem areas and shape communication accordingly. h
ow well known are the scientific processes shaping outcomes?Slide14
Curse of expert knowledge
1)
Lay interpretations of scientific terms may differ from experts.
Use terms that are less likely to be confused. Instead of uncertainty use “range”; instead of error use “difference from the estimate.”2) Members of the public may not have pre-existing cognitive frameworks that allow them to easily understand highly technical information. Use analogies, visualizations, diagrams, summaries of most important points.Slide15
Heuristics and biases (that we all have)
People use
“heuristics” to make decisions quickly and
easily. Heuristics like “availability,” the examples we can easily recall, can strongly influence subsequent choices. If intuitions based on lay theories are wrong, recognize the reasonableness of the intuition, provide examples that are inconsistent with that view, and then explain the scientific evidence.Slide16
People Can View Physical Reality Very Differently
But if we understand why,
w
e may be able to move closer to agreement.Slide17
Citations:TrustAkerlof, K., Rowan, K. E., Fitzgerald, D., & Cedeno
, A. Y. (2012). Communication of climate projections in US media amid politicization of model science.
Nature Climate Change, 2
(9), 648–654. Priest, S. H., Bonfadelli, H., & Rusanen, M. (2003). The “Trust Gap” Hypothesis: Predicting Support for Biotechnology Across National Cultures as a Function of Trust in Actors. Risk Analysis, 23(4), 751–766. Sandman, P. M. (1993). Responding to Community Outrage: Strategies for Effective Risk Communication. AIHA.
Slide18
Communicating uncertainty for decision-makingFischhoff, B., & Davis, A. L. (2014). Communicating scientific uncertainty.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
,
111(Supplement 4), 13664–13671. Rowan, K. E., Botan, C. H., Kreps, G. L., Samoilenko, S., & Farnsworth, K. (2009). Risk communication education for local emergency managers: Using the CAUSE model for research, education, and outreach. Handbook of Risk and Crisis Communication, 168–191. Sterman, J. D. (2008). Risk communication on climate: mental models and mass balance. Science, 322
(5901), 532–533.
Slide19
Communication barriersBudescu, D. V., Broomell, S., &
Por
, H.-H. (2009). Improving Communication of Uncertainty in the Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Psychological Science, 20(3), 299–308. Morss, R. E., Demuth, J. L., & Lazo, J. K. (2008). Communicating Uncertainty in Weather Forecasts: A Survey of the U.S. Public. Weather and Forecasting, 23(5), 974–991. Somerville, R. C. J., & Hassol, S. J. (2011). Communicating the science of climate change. Physics Today, 64(10), 48–53.
Slide20
Contact:kakerlof@gmu.edu703 993 6667