August 2017 How do Pension Wealth Shocks affect Working and Claiming Lalive Magesan and Staubli LMS Mauricio Soto International Monetary Fund Sources 2017 OASDI Trustees Report Federal Social Insurance Office ID: 755219
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Retirement Research ConsortiumAugust 2017How do Pension Wealth Shocks affect Working and Claiming?Lalive, Magesan, and Staubli (LMS)
Mauricio
Soto
International Monetary FundSlide2
Sources: 2017 OASDI Trustees Report; Federal Social Insurance Office (Bsvlive).Hypothetical Replacement Rates at Retirement(percent of preretirement earnings)Selected Parameters of Main Swiss and U.S. Public Pension Systems, 2017AHV/IV plays a similar role as OASDI in the provision of retirement security
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Sources: Lalive and others (2017); United Nations Population Prospects (2017).Benefits for Women, by Age of Claiming(100=benefits at age 62 before 1997 reform)Pension Wealth for Women at Age 62(100=wealth at age 62 before 1997 reform)
Lalive
,
Magesan
, and
Staubli
examine the reaction of households to FRA increases
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Sources: Lalive, Magesan, and Staubli (2017)Percent of Individuals by Age of Claiming Relative to FRA(assumes individuals work continuously starting at age 20)Main finding: claiming age seems to move in line with increases in FRA
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Sources: Lalive, Magesan, and Staubli (2017)Using regression discontinuity, authors find robust results for increasing claiming age5Slide6
Sources: Lalive, Magesan, and Staubli (2017)Delaying claiming seems to sustain levels of annual benefits6Slide7
Sources: Lalive, Magesan, and Staubli (2017)With lower social security wealth7Slide8
Sources: Song and Manchester (2007)Entitlement Age Distribution, Men, by Birth YearFindings are consistent with experience in raising FRA in the United States8Slide9
Sources: Behaghel and Blau (2014).Social Security Benefit Claiming HazardFindings are consistent with experience in raising FRA in the United States (2)9Slide10
A few suggestions10Slide11
What do results imply for 2017 reform proposal?11Slide12
Thanks
FAD
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Sources: OECD Pension at a Glance (2015).Retirement Age to Obtain Full Benefits, Males in 2014 and 2050(assumes individuals work continuously starting at age 20)APP1: Global trend to increase statutory retirement ages in public pension systems13Slide14
Sources: Delavande and Rohwedder (2008) using the HRS Internet sample.What you would do differently if Social Security benefits were cut by 30 percent?APP2: Lalive, Magesan, and Staubli
examine the reaction of households to FRA increases
Policy design:
impact on well-being—can individuals offset impact on well-being?
Fiscal impact:
working longer might increase revenue and GDP
Behavioral response:
what explains the spikes in claiming?
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