Fall 2012 introduction Course Particulars Instructor Dr Michael Johnson Office Room HSH219 Ho Sin Hang Building Office Hours Wednesdays 1500 to 1600 Email michaeldraculajohnsongmailcom ID: 661042
Download Presentation The PPT/PDF document "Critical Thinking GEA 101" is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to download and print the materials on this web site for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this agreement.
Slide1
Critical Thinking
GEA 101
Fall 2012Slide2
introductionSlide3
Course Particulars
Instructor: Dr. Michael Johnson
Office: Room HSH219, Ho Sin Hang Building
Office Hours: Wednesdays 15:00 to
16:00
Email:
michael.dracula.johnson@gmail.com
Office Telephone: 2616 7455Slide4
Course Website
Go to michaeljohnsonphilosophy.com/critical-thinking-2012/
All of the
powerpoint
slides will be posted there, along with reading assignments and homework assignments.Slide5
Meeting Times
Wednesday 11:44 to
13:30
Leung
Kau
Kui
(LKK) G01
Friday
14:30 to
15:45
LKK
107Slide6
Assessment
10 short homework assignments
5 points each for 50 points in total
22 class days to attend
0.5 points each for
up to
10 points total
1 final exam
40 points totalSlide7
Homework
Homework assignments will be assigned on most Fridays, and will be due the next Wednesday in class.
They will be short exercises requiring you to use the critical thinking skills we have learned that week.Slide8
Attendance
Attendance is required and accounts for 10% of your final grade.
You cannot get an ‘A’ in this course if you do not attend classes.Slide9
Final Exam
The final exam will occur during the scheduled exam period (TBA).
It will consist of multiple choice and short-answer questions.
It is worth 40% of your final grade.
More details will be announced as the date of the final approaches. There will be a review (TBA).Slide10
Important Note
Students shall be aware of the University regulations about dishonest practice in course work and the possible consequences as stipulated in the Regulations Governing University Examinations.Slide11
What is Critical Thinking?
There are two basic decisions to make in life:
1. Decide what to believe: What do I believe?
2. Decide what to do: What do I do?Slide12
Deciding What to Believe
The things you believe (or disbelieve) are claims.
Examples of claims include:
Aliens exist.
2 + 2 = 4.
Pocari
Sweat is better than Aquarius.
You should kill children for fun.Slide13
Claims
Claims can be:
General or specific
True or false
Plausible or implausible
Reasonable or unreasonable
Supported by evidence or not…Slide14
Example: Theories
Scientific theories are claims that are supported by lots of evidence, that integrate lots of our knowledge, and that explain and predict lots of phenomena.Slide15
Example: Guesses
Guesses are claims that the guesser only believes might be true, or are probably true. Slide16
Example: Lies
A lie is a claim that is known to be false and is made to deceive you into believing something false.Slide17
Claims
Scientific theories, guesses, and lies are all claims. There are lots of other types of claims: hypotheses, deductions, considerations…
A claim is something that is presented as true.
Sometimes good reasons are given for accepting it, sometimes no reasons are given, and sometimes misleading reasons are given. Slide18
Critical Thinking
Is there any evidence to support the claim?
Is the evidence reliable and trustworthy? How reliable is it? Should you accept it?
Does the evidence actually support the claim?
Is there other evidence you should consider?Slide19
Critical Thinking
Critical thinking involves asking these questions at the right times, knowing how to answer them, and knowing how to use those answers to accept or reject a claim.
This is a skills-oriented class. These are the skills we will learn.Slide20
You Already Do It
You are already a critical thinker. You use critical thinking skills all the time, even if you don’t know it.Slide21
Is there any evidence?
On a lot of airlines, you are required to turn off your cell phones and other electronic devices during takeoff and landing.
Claim: Keeping your devices on poses a danger.
But is there any evidence that this is true? Are there studies? What do scientists say?Slide22
Is there any evidence?
Flu season comes and it’s really bad. You should probably get a flu shot.
Or should you go to the traditional Chinese medicine shop? They say their medicine can prevent the flu too.Slide23
How reliable is the evidence?
Here’s a common story you’ll hear:
Claim: Oh, you have a cold? You should get the doctor to prescribe antibiotics for you.
Evidence: I got a cold and after a couple days was feeling really bad. I got some antibiotics and two days later, I felt great!Slide24
How reliable is the evidence?
But this can’t be true. Colds are caused by viruses, and antibiotics only work on bacteria.
The story you heard is a case of
regression to the mean
. People go to the doctor when they’re feeling worst. Of course they feel better later, they would feel better later anyway. Colds usually take care of themselves in 6 days.Slide25
Does the evidence support the claim?
Companies often pay celebrities and other public figures to endorse their products.
Claim: You should buy/ use this product.
Evidence: Celebrity X buys/ uses this product.
But is it any reason to buy something that some other person is paid to say they like it?Slide26
Does the evidence support the claim?
But what do those doctors know about the health effects of cigarettes? Have they done studies?
Maybe they smoke Camels because they’re cheaper, or because they’re “cooler” or for some other reason.Slide27
Is there other evidence to consider?
Claim: Prayer heals the sick.
Evidence: My mother had cancer, but then I prayed for her. Her cancer went into remission.
But how many people were prayed for and not cured? How many people were not prayed for, but still had their cancer go into remission? Does prayer work or was this just an accident?Slide28
Critical Thinking
Becoming a better critical thinker involves exercising these skills, asking these questions and finding out the answers, more often and more effectively and in a wider range of circumstances.Slide29
Deciding What to Do
But critical thinking does not end there. Notice that we still do not know
what to do
.
Should I turn off my cell phone on an airplane?
Should I smoke Camels?
Should I eat shark fin soup if I want to avoid cancer?
What do
I do
?Slide30
Choices
A choice is a decision between two or more actions.
Sometimes choices lead to the outcomes we desire with certainty. Sometimes they only likely lead to the outcome we desire. Sometimes our choices are very unlikely to get us the outcome we desire.Slide31
Choices
Choices can
be
:
Important or unimportant
Easy or difficult
Rational or irrational
Successful or unsuccessful…Slide32
Critical Thinking
What outcomes can my choice lead to?
Does the outcome of my decision depend on factors other than what I choose to do?
What is the likelihood that deciding to take a specific action will lead to a specific outcome?
Which outcomes do I most prefer? Slide33
What outcomes can my choice lead to?
Here’s an example from the United States:
A lot of religious conservatives in the U.S. campaign to make abortion illegal, and elect government officials who say they will try to make it illegal. (Important background: the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that laws against abortion are unconstitutional.)Slide34
What outcomes can my choice lead to?
http://
www.youtube.com/watch?v=xJh6frpykQk
But if abortion is illegal, presumably women who get abortions will go to jail. So do the campaigners who want to make abortion illegal want these women in jail? In the video, we see a woman who’s quite confused as to what outcome her position leads to.Slide35
What do the outcomes depend on?
Sometimes, when we make a choice, the outcome depends not just on what we’ve chosen to do, but also on what others have chosen.
Suppose I have a scholarship that I can offer to exactly one student to come to my school. If they don’t accept it, I cannot offer it to anyone else…Slide36
What do the outcomes depend on?
If I offer it to the best student, she is most likely to decline it (she has other scholarships to other schools, she may decide to go somewhere else).
If I offer it to the worst student, she is most likely to accept it (she probably has no other scholarships and no other admittances). But I don’t want to give money to the worst student!Slide37
How likely is this choice to effect this outcome?
Sometimes the same action can result in different outcomes with different likelihoods.
The St. Petersburg Paradox
Suppose a casino offers you the following gamble. A coin is flipped. If it lands heads, you get to try again. It is flipped again if you won, and if it lands heads again, you get to go again, otherwise you get $1…Slide38
Schedule of Payouts
Heads once in a row: $1
Heads twice in a row: $2
Heads three times in a row: $4
Heads four times in a row: $8
Heads five times in a row: $16
….
Heads n times in a row: $2
n-1
How much would you pay to play?Slide39
Which outcomes do I most prefer?
Taking different actions (making different decisions) can often lead to different outcomes (as in the St. Petersburg case).
But it’s not always obvious which outcomes to prefer. Obviously $50 is better than $10. But suppose it costs the same to keep someone in jail as to pay for a student to go to college. Do you let criminals out and educate more people?Slide40
Framing and the Flu
Suppose a new type of flu is spreading through China and experts predict it will move to Hong Kong soon. If nothing is done,
it will kill 600
.
The government is deciding which of two plans to implement. They come to the following rigorous, scientifically certain evaluations of the plans:Slide41
Version 1
If Plan A is adopted, 200 people will be saved.
If Plan B is adopted, there is a 1-in-3 chance that all 600 will be saved, and a 2-in-3 chance that no one will be saved.Slide42
Version 2
If Plan A is adopted, 400 people will die.
If Plan B is adopted, there is a 1-in-3 chance that no one will die, and a 2-in-3 chance that all 600 will die.Slide43
Which outcomes do I prefer?
Version 1 and Version 2 describe exactly the same plans.
Plan A in Version 1 = Plan A in Version 2.
Plan B in Version 1 = Plan B in Version 2.
Yet 70% of people go with Plan A in Version 1, while only 41% choose Plan A in Version 2.Slide44
For Next Class
Go to the course website: michaeljohnsonphilosophy.com/critical-thinking-2012
/
Read the reading for next time.