Sara Ortega van Vloten PhD student University of Cantabria Coastal Dynamics 2021 June 28 th July 2 nd HyTCWaves HyTCWaves Motivation NUMERICAL SIMULATION TC Paka Category 3 JanFeb 1990 ID: 1041984
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1. HyTCWaves:A Hybrid Methodology for Downscaling Tropical Cyclone induced Wave Climate Sara Ortega van VlotenPhD student, University of CantabriaCoastal Dynamics 2021June 28th - July 2nd
2. HyTCWaves HyTCWaves: MotivationNUMERICAL SIMULATIONTC PakaCategory 3 Jan-Feb 1990OBJECTIVE: Extreme Value Distribution for TC-induced wave height
3. HyTCWavesDYNAMIC DOWNSCALINGParameters {} Maximum Dissimilarity AlgorithmWind vortex,SWANRadial Basis FunctionsStorm track parameterizationStorm selectionNumerical modellingReconstructionNumerical modellingHYBRID DOWNSCALING“HyTCWaves”Storm selectionWind field,SWANEXTREME VALUE DISTRIBUTION OF TC-INDUCED WAVE HEIGHT HyTCWaves: Proposed methodologyTARGET LOCATION
4. Marshall IslandsAIRPORTABCDABCD HyTCWaves: Target location
5. Target: MajuroHyTCWaves HyTCWaves: Storm databasesStorm tracksIBTrACSNakajo et al. 2014Historical databaseSynthetic database10.064 tracks 10.000 years37 tracks 1951-2021
6. PminVmean Storm track parameterization- Minimum central pressure- Mean translational velocity- Angle of entrance- Angle of forward directionHyTCWaves HyTCWaves: Track parameterizationHistoricalSynthetic
7. N = 8.773 (dataset)M = 500 (subset) HyTCWaves: Storm selectionHistoricalSyntheticMaximumDissimilarityAlgorithmM=100M=300M=500FILTERING SYNTHETICS > 860mbar < 83km/h < 270º > 40º
8. GEBCO (450m) HyTCWaves HyTCWaves: Numerical ModellingVortex model wind fieldStorm durationDYNAMIC HOLLAND MODEL(Holland 1980, Fleming et al. 2008)Latitude (lat)Translation speed ()Minimum central pressure ()Maximum wind speed ()Radius of maximum wind () Parameterized windNumerical modellingSWANBathymetryNon-stationary modeDynamic wind fieldsWind drag coefficientPropagation processes
9. HyTCWaves HyTCWaves: Numerical ModellingOutput results: maximum significant wave height (swath maps)Total simulation time: 5-days with an 8-processor computerFirst 100 cases…
10. Principal Components AnalysisHyTCWavesM casesHsmaxi HyTCWaves: ReconstructionSimulated (case 100)50 PCs composition
11. Interpolation based on Radial Basis FunctionsHyTCWaves HyTCWaves: ReconstructionDesign vectorsM=500 simulated tracks Input vectorN=8.773 synthetic tracks Interpolation functions for each PCCamus et al. 2011CROSS VALIDATIONReconstructedReconstructedReconstructedReconstructed
12. Extreme value distribution of TC-induced maximum wave height (at CP )HyTCWaves HyTCWaves: Extreme Value DistributionPoisson distribution of number of events per year22 tracks1979-20218.773 tracks tracks/year ~15.000 years10210301010·····Random reconstructed HsmaxYeari40y - Historical40y - Synthetic200y - SyntheticAnnual maximumReturn period (years)
13. HyTCWaves HyTCWaves: ConclusionsA metamodel capable of estimating wave conditions from geometric, kinematic and dynamic parameters of a tropical cyclone has been developedEstimation of the extreme value distribution of TC-induced maximum significant wave heightThe hybrid approach allows to reduce computational effortFuture lines of work:Sensitivity analysis on the number of selected cases Improve the track parameterization with additional variables to characterize the temporal variability of the TC intensityBetter approximation of the track geometry to also account for time-series swell waves
14. Thank yousara.ovanvloten@unican.esCoastal Dynamics 2021June 28th - July 2ndAcknowledgementsThis work is funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, National Project “Beach4Cast” (PID2019-107053RB-I00).