Presented by LT Monica Schneider LT Sylvester Campos LT Mike Dickenson Background US Counter Drug Programs Goal Reduce the flow of Latin American sourced Illicit drugs into the US ID: 320510
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Slide1
Maritime Drug Interdiction Through UAV Surveillance
Presented by
LT
Monica
Schneider
LT
Sylvester Campos
LT
Mike DickensonSlide2
Background
US Counter Drug Programs Goal: Reduce the flow of Latin American sourced Illicit drugs into the U.S.Interdiction methodsStricter Cross Border ControlSupply reduction - Crop Eradication
Primary source of Cocaine
Bolivia, Columbia, Peru account for all cocaine harvested in the worldSlide3
2012 CBP
Cocaine Seizure StatisticsCoastal Border Sectors24 Seizures5,953 PoundsSouthwest Border Sectors
457 Seizures
5,992 PoundsSlide4Slide5
Drug Traffickers Transport Methods
Self-Propelled Semisubmersibles (SPSSs)
Go-Fast Boats
Fishing Vessels
Container ShipsSlide6
The Latest in the Drug War “Operation
Martillo
”
Operation
Martillo
is a multinational interagency and joint military operation that combats aerial and maritime drug trafficking off Central America’s coasts. U.S. military participation is led by Joint Interagency Task Force South (JIATF), a component of U.S. Southern Command
.
Partnership of 14 various countriesSlide7
Successes of Operation
MartilloJanuary 24, 2013 – Coast Guard intercepted 1,400 pounds of cocaine ($17 million) from a smuggler go-fast boatApril 26, 2013 – Coast Guard intercepted 2,200 pounds of cocaine ($27 million) from a fishing vessel June 1, 2013 - $527 million worth in Cocaine from 2 Speed BoatsSlide8
Assets for Maritime Interdiction
Support from 4th Fleet4 Frigates Patrol in 2 zones (Pacific/Atlantic) coasts of South AmericaCoast Guard A/C and Cutters600 Person Multiagency Task Force
Partner
n
ations contribute Patrol Boats and P-3’s (Canada)
4 UAV’s Slide9
MQ-9
Predator
General Characteristics
Primary Function:
A
irborne
surveillance and target acquisition
Fuel
Capacity:
100 gallons
Payload:
450
pounds
Speed
:
Cruise speed around 84 mph (70 knots), up to 135 mph
Ceiling
:
up to
50
,000 feet
Endurance:
Up to 30 hours
Cost:
$16.9 Million
Crew
(remote):
Two (pilot and sensor
operator
Tracking: FMV monitored by controlling station or uplinked with an asset.Capable in low visibility (cloud cover) and inclement weather Slide10
Intent
UAV’s will be able to spot drug traffickers and then report back to a command center, which will alert the Coast Guard, Navy or authorities from Caribbean or Central American nations to take action.Slide11
UAV
Search GraphOriginal ProblemCocaine & MarijuanaAll possible routesMax Flow
Project Focus
Cocaine
Maritime Routes
Max Flow with shortest
path propertiesSlide12
Network Model
Max Flow Network Model / Modified Min Cost Flow to force shortest path propertiesNodes Demand Nodes - Corpus Christi, Miami, New OrleansSupply Nodes – Equally Distributed
Supply
Nodes along Latin American
Coast (53 Total)
Edges – All neighboring water nodes are connectedSlide13
Network Edges
Each Node over waterIs connected by an edgeFlow moving from Supply nodes to
Demand nodesSlide14
Supply & Demand Nodes
Supply NodesEqually Distributed53 Supply Nodes625lbs eachDemand Nodes
Miami - 9,922
New Orleans 9,921
Corpus Christi 13,282
Transit Nodes
329Slide15
Equally Distributed Supply
Distance vs Profit Annual estimated flowSlide16
Assumptions
Cocaine travels from supply to demand nodes shortest feasible pathPresently 15% rate of seizure of all drugs in the demand regionsUAVs are available to be on station 24/7
UAVs
identify targets and tracks until forces arrive for apprehension (never leave station after they are assigned best grid location)
100 percent detection rate of drug running vessels transiting through
UAVs
’ station.
Can not interdict within 60 km off US coast
Each node is 1° degree of latitude and longitude Slide17
Analysis
33,126 lbs transportedfrom all supply nodes
Combined
Node distinctionSlide18
The “Interesting Questions”
How much drug flow can be interdicted?How many UAVs
do we need to stop as much drug flow as possible?
Marginal cost of adding
UAV
interdictions?
At what levels can the program be fiscally justified?Slide19
Interdictions
UAVs can be assign 1 to multiple nodes to surveyProbability of detection is initially 1 when assigned a single node and is reduced to 1 divided by number of nodes assigned UAVs never participate in apprehension
Apprehension away from
UAV
station
No Interdictions with 60 miles of US Coastline
UAV
yearly mission cost $18.4 Million per
UAVSlide20
1 UAV
InterdictionTotal/Change11,328 lbs seized
$133 Million
34.2% reduction
Seizure Cost
$1,641/
lbs
$0.54 Million/%Slide21
2
UAV InterdictionsAdditional 5,625 lbs
$66.5 Million
17.0% reduction
Total 16,953
lbs
seized
$200
Million
51.2%
reduction
Seizure Cost$2,171/lbs
$0.72 Million/%Slide22
3 UAV
InterdictionsAdditional 5,000 lbs
$59.1
Million
15.1%
reduction
Total
21,953
lbs
seized
$
259 Million66.3% reductionSeizure Cost$
2,514/lbs$0.83 Million/%Slide23
4 UAV
InterdictionsAdditional 2,500 lbs
$29.5
Million
7.5%
reduction
Total
24,453
lbs
seized
$289
Million73.8% reductionSeizure Cost$3,010/
lbs$1.0 Million/%Slide24
5 UAV
InterdictionsAdditional 1,250 lbs
$14.8
Million
3
.8%
reduction
Total
26,003
lbs
seized
$307 Million78.4% reductionSeizure Cost$
3,538/lbs$1.2 Million/%Slide25
Patterned Interdictions
Additional 2,656 lbs$31.4 Million
$6,927 /
lb
Additional 3,144
lbs
$37.2
Million
$5,852 /
lbSlide26
Number of Interdictions
$
/
lbSlide27
Number of InterdictionsSlide28
Further Research
Increase complexity by removing as many assumption as possibleSpecific UAV parametersJoint coordination timelines/requirements/
assests
Refueling and replacement plans for UAV for management of assets (time to station)
Improve intelligence on drug smuggling processSlide29
References
“Just the Facts” A Civilians Guide to U.S. Defense and Security Assistancehttp://justf.org/blog/2013/03/12/operation-martillo-southcoms-counternarcotics-operation-central-americas-coastsStatfor
Global Intelligence
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/mexicos-cartels-and-economics-cocaine?older=
1353501041
162
nd
Fighter Wing
http
://
www.162fw.ang.af.mil/resources/factsheets/factsheet.asp?id=11932
World Drug ReportSlide30
Questions?