In this case ph ysical obser ations of the system in the speci64257c conte xt are used to lear about the unkno wn par ameters The process of 64257tting the model to the obser ed data adjusting the par ameters is kno wn as calibr ation Calibr ation i ID: 6990
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BayesianCalibrationofComputerModelsMarcC.KennedyandAnthonyO'Hagan \n \r Summary.Weconsiderpredictionanduncertaintyanalysisforsystemswhichareapproxi-matedusingcomplexmathematicalmodels.Suchmodels,implementedascomputercodes,areoftengenericinthesensethatbysuitablechoiceofsomeofthemodel'sinputparametersthecodecanbeusedtopredictbehaviourofthesysteminavarietyofspecicapplications.However,inanyspecicapplicationthevaluesofnecessaryparametersmaybeunknown.Inthiscase,physicalobservationsofthesysteminthespeciccontextareusedtolearnabouttheunknownparameters.Theprocessofttingthemodeltotheobserveddatabyadjustingtheparametersisknownascalibration.Calibrationistypicallyeffectedbyadhoctting,andaftercalibrationthemodelisused,withthettedinputvalues,topredictfuturebehaviourofthesystem.WepresentaBayesiancalibrationtechniquewhichimprovesonthistraditionalapproachintworespects.First,thepredictionsallowforallsourcesofuncertainty,includingtheremaininguncertaintyoverthettedparameters.Second,theyattempttocorrectforanyinadequacyofthemodelwhichisrevealedbydiscrepancybetweentheobserveddataandthemodelpredictionsfromeventhebest-ttingparametervalues.ThemethodisillustratedusingdatafromanuclearradiationreleaseatTomsk,andfromamorecomplexsimulatednuclearaccidentexercise.000;!#"$&%('&)*,+-/.1032546870/984\r:(((\rD(2OH=HPQ0? \r((\491Z^03;30G2_ZQR4K`=a 3;Q.1D(79O04;391ZS03;30G2_ZQR4K`b1.OVERVIEW1.1.Computermodelsandcalibration\dc egfhWihi\nTfaKkjlc\r\njc&\r ic(jl TLm\ri \rnao \ri\nKmQ\rhc[p1f M p?\rqnU\n \rLqifh[\rBcacR\rrOchM\n\rqjl Wc \rlRo iceLjloe\njl_\rmsetijlof [i\n\nb:3u\r\n5r_\rGjlc\r\njc&\r icajl\nU Cevglijlow`rch\r\r\r m;Kfh;;v;[i;jlo;f; 8;i;G;1; c; v;000;ch[jc,Tna?woa\nhK8 jhigjlof\r\n \rjl? \rmxgfhe \nWy dcQKvge1 \rfh5bO;3g \r\r\nem\r\nr m;Kfh;;v;[i;jlo;f; 8;i;G;1; c; v;000; m;Kfh;;v;[i;jlo;f; 8;i;G;1; c; v;000; \rfhvl\r[ijlof\r GjlRzp?znUjfai{|i{h\ncoU 3\rhcJjc}Rehvqe \ni3naK\n \r&c&egh8o Ri\nbci{}\nr&~E\ni{zrg@Jei{\neach[~RJ\ng_zvgeg1c\n\n\n\nighK \n 1c \r\r\n\r\r\r\rTcjlTf\rofmbe;ohf;?;e;p8c,;d;o ;;hi;m0;.Cjlof jl 3c \rTvg\n cemKvh\n\rnUcooi\ncnT\rqcqp?T {chvT/ohc Kif c Wjl;;U;0;iggwR\nb&p1\n \nrgek { (\r[fhK\n(\n\rWjl;;U;0;na8mim\rc Qh {\rq{&)\r"/\r?jl\nfhKvT\rjl8nh\r mccb9V\r\r\npCQ_\r RfhiTclKjloTwcjlob/98p1#jlg \rQwcj#ohem?c \r\r\n\n\r4][g \n 5Q\ni 1#cG_K1 vjlGbm;i ;nU;;J;;c;`;B;Ri;;B;b;b00;vhbKgr,y \rmxgfhhiWch \r\nemc\r( {c&\rmzcn{zy /cp fvhrc\r(\r\n\n\n\r\r\r\r&c egfh8ijlohc Kjl_\nU3oac&\r_mCnachl{(\n\ngfhcaejlhc&egLygbvabVnRi{\nj# icoh; j;cgi;};R;;i;jlR;; ;fh;`;98; ;j#;;;O;8j;l&;j;lg;;a;; f;vG;h g;v;000; \rmci\rh1 3wi egabCfhi{Jclj#\nzc&p1\rih\r\nx_f\nhim1dcRqvgeg|g\rT \r\nvjlG 2MarcC.KennedyandAnthonyO'Haganna\n\n\n\n(\r\r\r\r\r\r\rKoU\niyl {c&\n/p?e\rqp?hi{qeCjl&g\n/nUp1\neU\n \r\ngCnaigjlohc \r\rjl_{r_Kfhi{kc/3 {c&?\r {chKy 1y jK\rgjci{qlneR`rg 8ejlhc&egy jQe\n \nbdRgjl\r\rKoU;i;ai;0; f;hv00;p?eUna\n\r\r\r\n\r\r\r\n\n\rhK; d;[;oam;ie;y[;;j0;cCehofC\r\n\n\r\n\n\rvg;eg;L; f;var;Uc;hB;q;woU; ;ejl;g;{Gc; 0; c\rmp?erH(igf {KgrhGnU[}R&p?|yg \r\r\n\r\n\r\n\rn{cEgnh\r ,c\rhcOhc&chbl4WQToa_\r\renhe#\rJgnceE\rh c\r\nGj\r\n\nbl4]hK\r\ncg`r`c&{cc \rWgnh\r ,c\rh3(i \rcX'H+?/#ohc jci}Reh\r iTjlr`bvhbQighi\n_\r {c&\rvg;eg;L; f;var;Uc;hB;q;woU; ;ejl;g;{Gc; 0;vg;eg;L; f;var;Uc;hB;q;woU; ;ejl;g;{Gc; 0;elnR[g f \rc(i \rce[\rjl?oage_{bd.C \rfaof\nrgi\ncenh c\r#Oci\r_eHcg,fhK\rv\rTfh}R&p?k {c&Qohc {cjl {1f_\r`\rTgf\rohf8VTjlRh (H\rTgnhK\n \rg\nkc&{cb@J kvg\n cerdcMigjlof\r\n [jl\n?p?e8hc,|cBRfj[na\n #l{'&¡a"¢g¤£+h"{ 1Wof{#\rhcvg;eg;L; f;var;Uc;hB;q;woU; ;ejl;g;{Gc; 0;vg;eg;L; f;var;Uc;hB;q;woU; ;ejl;g;{Gc; 0;vg;eg;L; f;var;Uc;hB;q;woU; ;ejl;g;{Gc; 0;vg;eg;L; f;var;Uc;hB;q;woU; ;ejl;g;{Gc; 0;acohc Kif c 3\rfhc&egJeJp?hi{|jlV\rqnUfaKm`b8~5r`cg?3uJicgKgr\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\r\r\n\rl\nc |cnUf8\rhj|b(98 ? 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8 W\rgnh\r ,c\rM \rg Qy TPq\rsgnhK\n \r&c\r5r"oB[csf}R&p?s vg \rm\r\regLohcN cjl\r\n [ch?pí#cBjl8hc\nx_fhciLyfhhiegt\rac&[ u¡U*g"h"¡H*"¡h8?|igf\rohfdíùíb.Ch\r C\rQnaK\n \r&c&eg \rg r 00;Vh {mb/R\r i\rr_\r ?c \rhifhm1cR# \n\r fhcU&c c\r 00; 00;c8p1zcnh\r &c&\r T\rRmiegLbmb(~EjcvThc,Rvl \r\noi\nc&\r|OgnNK\n \r&c\rhqi ifj{chi\n/p?h ?(gW\rh3&c cn1ofCnfCc\rWc\rh3f \nivg\r\n 00;ighe\rhGpC\n \r[\rh#cjlr5\rQQhQoa_\r\renhe[\r|K\nohc {c&Wp1|Kgf i\nG(fhhi\n K{cggb 12MarcC.KennedyandAnthonyO'Hagan~EQp?e`\rfooUg\r\r9 8c Gh\noa\nh\ngekK\r nf\rmkcg7\rtæhù+sUb98h\r\r\rg;jl;o;;k; jcjlc,k \rmx_fe Wcl chyg \rjc\r\r c,p¬c&{cracg?Jf faKW/egvN]oUg\regkR\ni\r|¯b;&pÉih\r 8Tejlo ic&egk8©Chc&fîCdóRodî8ù§H(=pîdù¯_p?díùíkchpKíg;jl;o;;k;hoUa_\nb98 k\nr3ifh \rrjl\n \r\neEp1c,[j#\nevt \r\nc\rh\roqnUp1k\rhQiQfofch \rmcgb/03?c[ohc \r\r c_fhK\reaic\r5reicnUcGy jlc e&c\r[y \rgj^cG}Rh#H@Bc }&Qo oU \rrcgOye&p\nbV0G\r\rfjl1\rhcdpC8}R&pX§chvge;g;000;icBjc}[cGjlcR fhG/li[cg3p1p? \r5rU\rgnh\r dî8ù{§H?yg G&c fhGH _Tî1bRfooUg\r\r\nfî8c&3\rjlT\roamieaiQoage_îp1QpCgfk vgc 3cgKfie\n_C#gnh\r Qfofdî¤ù§HCc[\rvG f|c&1\rTcjlH5\rh\rehof\nbÎ98 l\rB@Lc }&¥cKfhj#o\r5r8chic«naB\r&p?X\rsejloɤ¯g|¤K\nE:[Gcvgc5r\nggrwio1\rac&7o[jc,#y jce\noa\nhqgî8b/983yfh K 8cKfhj#o\rhc&7ol1igh{c_K\nj8hc\rf {c5chkye&p8eOp1Qhc,#+]&'&¡U)$Qo \ri\nKmdKíeù\nírTpí8cafíb1I3mKoe\rQ &c; c;n;00;c vfjl\ngmrpCq oU\nchc&|¯gW3fhK#goUg\renyg \rj[fc\r5=(\nx_fhcsivg_[c vfhj#\n_&c; c;n;00;igf|oh \rgnhcnna#RhimJeBc,fh d\r\n Gjl \nb34]Jwcjloemhc&\r\npC[;hc,;Q; ;5;r000;¯_V_m/K\njã \rmc\rhcnegr,nfdjl 8woa\n \rai8h\n\n\rTwo C\r dc\roU\ni/ajlevabpC[;hc,;Q; ;5;r000;98Wjl\ncehvq\rhq¤)h"&cf\n3§EOi\ncen {c&eg|ohc {cjl {8Gc \rm\r\r\nLR\ni\r®hbpC[;hc,;Q; ;5;r000;nU&pTbpC[;hc,;Q; ;5;r000;~E \r\no \n\r_o eg [yg \rjc&eg¦cnUf[nU\r¦\rf}R&p?tyfhieghdpC[;hc,;Q; ;5;r000;íùích?pí[nRPQcfh\rco \ri\nKm díùít\r¤áøíùíùøKKíeù\níù\nKíeù\ní\rscapít\ráúíù+úKíeù\níû14]\ncgi{ÉicgKgrGp1sjlRQ\rh¥j#mcÍchÉ&c chiEyfhi\rh|he\n c i{ icec|Í\nieg¬hbb03go\rv¥Beh\nc kjlRyg \rj,lp?e\rp1\nc}Xo eg \rnfeghr?p1Bhc,gJáøî8ùbBó$ø¤î8ùb&'øùKáú¤îd(ó$úîd&'úrhch.V:'øù'ú;gû¨pC[;hc,;Q; ;5;r000;~ETp? 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i{\rl\nK\rjc&dKíeù\nírh\r#ejc}g\n?\rh\r\r\n\r\r3;g8;pC;zc;g8o; _;n;e;gb00;RkeTjc,Jnal \nc\racnT\r \rmc&TcLofcGf}R&p?5rzchJ yg \r#ohc KQdiceeNn {c&\rkohc {cjl\r §Vr\neOp1Qna\neg\r\r\r\r\r\r ? ?c|Ýhf\ngc5ohc cj#\r\n Wc8jlv_nUT \r\n\ncemnRc\raKe\rRchcK {rc&p?evle\r#R c&\rGy jS\rG\r f\r\r\r\n\njc,;#oh; ;fhi;Gc;q;jlo; ; i;e;;nU;K; ?;ig;jlo;; Cjl;;00; \rmcgbC4{o 3 K\r enf\rJp1f na#i_ \n|c&T \rfoRR\r icz,cefhrh Ýa\niehvcwoU\ni{c&egkz\rhTj#\n¤cgiifh cgirRnfp?|c#gN #,c \r caib0/j#\nTc \r[p? \rgvhr5chJJKfohoa_K[\rhcTeohfT\rfhMcp1c,3na\rQ\r\rh [\r fg&cf\n1p?\nk\n\rTc #}R&p?5 1\rlR\nK8\rTjl\n`p?kR#j[fhi{|i \nneeqoh cgi\r igb9z \nc\rvBcJjlCjl qo {cvjc\r icrVcgWhc,RvJof{Whc&#qi\nc«pCmc}Hz\nj#ohe i\ncegrickhi \ncgK\r\r\n\n4.4.Posteriordistribution4]#\r? jcvTKfhnhKmieghU\r (\r\ni\r5rpC?o \n\r_\rh?oa_ eg dchce\rh\rh3icen {c&No;h;jl;;g;h;v;\rko \rgnjchkKfhnhKmx_f_8o \rm i\rk5\r\r\ro;h;jl;;g;h;v;9zJc,lKoacigrzp1lvlEcsfeC\rkgojl_T\n \rgbqÕ Wyfe jlc\r\njc&\r ic{c1T \nc 88 y\n \r \n\råQ\n\nkca|:[3cvgcM¤ææænab98Qh {3K\r\no 8q eg\r\r\n\r\r\r\r'Échw3bC98yfVccg\ni Fs h jlcekK\r enhf\rmJv\ns§Vù'Qù+w;WoU;gK; ; ;;K ;en;hf;;|;O;hTo;hc ;{cj;l; ;{§;Vù00;8rHch p?eORe\ne}geh_yfhi\r5bd9Vlwo \n8{8j#mc|mi ?ch&c chiGjc& \rewp1Q \rmxgfhe TKgj#Qjl \r~E\r¦\r«KEloU_Mc&Mp?i{^\ri¦gf\rohfiËc \r¦c,&ce cntnR~}øó _¤îmøùbøù\nûûû\nù\n¤îmjùbjQ;{c&;;zb;_btRejlc \rr/p1k\rk\rK#3oage_{Wyg kgnh\r ,c\rh|g«\r \nc/o Ri\nQnR}úó ,îøùû\nûûùîþgb03fvjl\ngehvJ\nci{sC\n\roage_{TnRB\rhicen {c&N\r|ohc cj#\r\n ?§Orp1Wa}ú§U1ó _îøù§Hù\nûû\nûù\n¤îþù§H_b(4/p1ø*}ø8\n\rTjc\r wp?J \r&pA$øîmøùbø&ù\nûû\nûù+$øîmjùb\njQ&r\rhTwoami{c&\rJi¥ 4ø*}ø'øb(4] 14MarcC.KennedyandAnthonyO'Haganchcegvgfh(hc\r5rRTwoU\nic&eg|gLAoÍø&*}#ú_¤§H\r`'ø=Éú_^}lú\n'úbdaiÿq^Y §Où'Gù+H(ó_¤§`dó%Ö§H`'Qùp? 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{i;fn;UTc;?;m;i ;na;m;00;@J ?chJ@Jei{\ne1\ngg©gb898\n\rmKvhvWvg_|i&g {cvgGO[\rohcgiWcaJc T\n \rnf\nBM\nci{LNjlh\rhcVo mieg5bW98#fhK#1c|.1c K\n\rcBo RfhiQhcQ\rjligj#ohfc\rhcHcg&c_cvmCp?hi{Jc \r\r\r\nGcvgcMægæænUb5.2.Modellingchoicesn ;Ý; k;m;i ;na;m;Jå;Q;h;;h;J:[;000;4]¬cooi\nc&egÉ\rhs\r\n r\n\n\r\n¶$ø¤î8ùbr$úîdrSø\rî8ùbù\nî/ùbK|chú¤î8ù\rîub9$ø¤î8ùbnU;f;G;0;nU;f;G;0;\rgfLna#i{g\r|k Ýa\ni\n\n\r\r\rdî8ùbrHch$nU;f;G;#;Khc;oa;úîd3Khf JnU[i{_K\nk Ýhmi3nU\r/pîdb4]JcK Ci\nc\rrgohc \r\r if c rp13jc,#1hc,cR#\roamieaiwoamic\rhd\r[j#\nh fvg#$úíbP\n\n\n\r\n\r\r\r\r\nnRLci\rfhc/o \r T}R&p?\nvb98 Q Te¥i_\r {cKGJohc {cjl\r i[ \r\nv \nKEjlRevhrVp? cevTwR\r {cT \r\nv \nKg ,c \r cnhem/p?eUevg\n co Rfhijlo &\n[mbd98GPQcfh\r\r clo Ri\n; c;e;r;h;G;_m;;3;e;o|;qo;Q;i;jloU;;_;?;_;;;Ty;h;i;;h;hc;Gc; T;;3jl;;&c;&;000;hohc cjl\r iCchp?hcco\rQp?hc\rg d\rhcoU8ayfhiegld\rfvgv\nK\rmWnRTc&{crch; c;e;r;h;G;_m;;3;e;o|;qo;Q;i;jloU;;_;?;_;;;Ty;h;i;;h;hc;Gc; T;;3jl;;&c;&;000;; c;e;r;h;G;_m;;3;e;o|;qo;Q;i;jloU;;_;?;_;;;Ty;h;i;;h;hc;Gc; T;;3jl;;&c;&;000;p?edu\rtBKJnU\r\r \rof egfhT v \n\r {Gc \rleaifh\n5b4]tcohoe ic\rh\nr5 yg \rgr; c;e;r;h;G;_m;;3;e;o|;qo;Q;i;jloU;;_;?;_;;;Ty;h;i;;h;hc;Gc; T;;3jl;;&c;&;000;f\n/ do eg dy jc&\rl\rfvvg\nKdj#g \rGijlowljlevargp18c}4$øî8ùbdóÖ,ch$úîddóÖmcgdcfe\nbO98h/jlmchhc&'øca'úc ?\ri\nc c {ch# o \n\r_/f}R&p?igh{c_8j#mch?y díùí8chpíb; c;e;r;h;G;_m;;3;e;o|;qo;Q;i;jloU;;_;?;_;;;Ty;h;i;;h;hc;Gc; T;;3jl;;&c;&;000;Õ W\ri&&c chi#yfhi\rhpCqcvgceMjlR(oac {Kjlfh\rbq~Mqv\n {cEcoTy j_rz®_rK#\rac&øK¤î8ùbùmîùbKóBúøwRo; c;e;r;h;G;_m;;3;e;o|;qo;Q;i;jloU;;_;?;_;;;Ty;h;i;;h;hc;Gc; T;;3jl;;&c;&;000; OWîMî&Wv·¤îsî\nzwo¸ W2brb&W¹^brHbgùOgmúî8ùîóBúúwRo; c;e;r;h;G;_m;;3;e;o|;qo;Q;i;jloU;;_;?;_;;;Ty;h;i;;h;hc;Gc; T;;3jl;;&c;&;000; OWîMî&Wm·¤îsî\ngù,p?JcvghcUy j1y W¹ùW·chWm·b; c;e;r;h;G;_m;;3;e;o|;qo;Q;i;jloU;;_;?;_;;;Ty;h;i;;h;hc;Gc; T;;3jl;;&c;&;000;433ejloU \rcg3\rq \nivh\rQ\rhc\rh\n\rc T3\r eR czjl\neehvi{ imb898[PQcfhK cy j?y G\rh#i&,c \r caiQyfhi\rEejloJcqnUe(eMeU\n \r\ngcnee|dnU\rdíùí3ch@pír; c;e;r;h;G;_m;;3;e;o|;qo;Q;i;jloU;;_;?;_;;;Ty;h;i;;h;hc;Gc; T;;3jl;;&c;&;000;chLeamEjloLcna\ne1\rhcT\rmK#yfai\raTc #chc_\r ibl98Qjc,BnUcooh \rgo \r c&yg \r|igjlof\r\n #idíùí[nf#\rmK|c\rfjlo\rhWy lnU\rd; c;e;r;h;G;_m;;3;e;o|;qo;Q;i;jloU;;_;?;_;;;Ty;h;i;;h;hc;Gc; T;;3jl;;&c;&;000;íùích=pKí; c;e;r;h;G;_m;;3;e;o|;qo;Q;i;jloU;;_;?;_;;;Ty;h;i;;h;hc;Gc; T;;3jl;;&c;&;000;ejlos\rhcjlna\neQcnagfG# \rmcOpCg \r Jo i\nfírzp?i{Ep?euMna#eacoo oh \r c&b\r\r\r 8jc&\r\r 3eBRmi\r|¯bb03Kfjlv cvghc,y jl`y `d fvg\nHjc& \r im`ejlo\nHhc&VcR3eoi\ncc K\r oRek\rhQi&&c chimd 8 e\ng\nkcv[\rQhRfac`ohc cj#\r\n 1cwRmb/9V chKy jlc\rqjc,nU 18MarcC.KennedyandAnthonyO'Hagan \r\ne\n&c_W\rEjc}\r #cKfjloegtjl q \nc irdch¥ [ejlojl_\nttgf [wcjlo\ncg\ni nam[kRmiegq¯b0\r\n Cc\rfjlo\rlB, /\rac&d (\rohc cneeWnapC\nlicen {c&\rJchJ&c cnWehof\r\r\r\r\r\rdíùíbTRohc cnee\n\n\r\r\n\r(\r\n\ry ;x_f;_;;ì;f;jl;e;s&c; ;gf;hT;Kc;&;K; i;c;oho;e; ic;;h;r5o;hc ;K;if; c; ;|;yg ;Wjl;R;;;vB;ohc;i;N000;\rjlqo Ri\nKmrzy WhKchiqnRs3cgK\rch¥7cu\r\n \r«m_\n\n\n\reE:[3cvgcMK\ngg1o &R\n?cqi{hc cgi c&eg/\rohc cneeq\rac&3jc,vgegWc\r\reXKgj#ki_wR\nr/nf#l[o ejc \reMcKfhj#m¥to {ciiy # \nc\raT3iR\ne\nhikchohc {\rejlRgbÕVhcerCpCjc,M jc \r}M\rac&g¥|fh\n \rRevsc\rfjlo\rt\r\rx_f\nK\rm`rUohc \r\r if c kB \n\roamiG/\r# \ncVo Ri\nb\n^ ;cg;Kg;hcn;;q ;cgi;{c;n;W;g;h;{c&;e;gN;c Jce\r hc\rjlv_Qna[\rlic KmJ \r\nv \nKJjl\nO8:[3cv_c¦K\nR¨&gbWcjloh\rMchP\n\n\r\neife?\rl?e_\rlgf 8y cjlp1 }Ub:Gf T \rmc\rh3y TfaKv\rmKcg\r\rfjlo\raGsf QwcjloemTc [nh \rÝhEcy;;&p;b#;ÕV; 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i;{Wj;lev;gg;nU;i;;mi;;Qy; ;j000;Kjle c Mchtch\nsB#\rfnh\r\nr/vgeRvL\rfnh\r{3KE\nær8,©rdæBch¦g©|oage_{bM98ej;l;c ;z;;hc&;p?; i;{Wj;lev;gg;nU;i;;mi;;Qy; ;j000;oage_8yf \r\rm?y j\rW\rfh iGp8c?\nenU {c&\r\neehiefa\nk©[oU_?hc&cgK\nb6.2.Results.CheghcHk\ncgi{z\rTcc\r{rRoUgK\r\n \r 1jl\nca1chk,c \r cai\nCha¤îCp1 \n\nic; if; c;&;000;y dceR?¯_¨&æic; if; c;&;000;fnaK\n \rg\n`&oU_\nrch#ci\nif {ciTp1cgcKm\r\r\n[\r?nhcgK OU\r8 \rfh1&cefmc&8\rh\n\rToage_\nbd98\r\n\r°y;;&p?;e;vK; {c;&;v;1;p1; T;i;jloh; ;m` ;_ c\r\nvgbO GKvcWPQcfhK c#o Ri\n/g oagc\rlU\rhoRK icnh\r &c&egh/cgr{c}RehvLgEcgiigf_[jl\ncgKfh \r\nj#\n_[ mrVnfljc}_vBhEfh\r?\rJPQcfa\r\rctofjljlb BayesianCalibrationofComputerModels21°_ c\r\nv[bV 3\rvW68c,\n\r ci\ncen {c&eg[ch#j#\neacmxgfaci[i \nieg5rcm\ri \rnU\nBR\ni\r®hb¯b°_ c\r\nvBb GKv|\rhPQcfhK cMofjlj#\n/p?ofvN5`ofoac {cjl {b#98oR\ri\nc`c&{c#8e_ oagc\r\neJc_p8c,b4]hK\rmc`rp1TK\nemi8\rhTeohfohc {cjl\r {nRqjlejl KvlWKfhj\rx_fhc \rmkH hi\n8nUp1\nkTjl5chk\rWcchb98GccfhKmly 1\ncgi{K\r {c&\r\nv#pC\n \r\rQ\rcjlrRijlo KvTy jê\næT\r©Q`\r ;evg;ea;0;c&{cqoU_\nbW9Vcne#v\n3\rh#7?RQ@Jmcsx_fhc \nBD( \r {¤7@LD1G(o \ni\rJyg \n\rJ c\r\nv\n\nbtÕ ijlohc Kg5rd7@LD8ó®E#ncm¦fh\rvLJip?Xofohc {cjl\r {Vw\ncd\r\ne (o \r (j#mc5b/_ c\rvgcgi{e\nm/eeKe3ejlo &\nj#\n_&g (&cfæb0;y 3ccQ\rcjloem/fh\r\n`b/_ c\rvgQ \r3}_h#Onam\rN¤\r\rvh_icen {c&\r[\rmi{ x_f?ufh\r\no {ci\r igbP\n(\r\r\r\r\rjlR;;rg;; 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1;q;G;y;e;&p?;;v000;Õ 1 c v Cc&{c\r(pCGpCgf woU\ni?_\r {c&vgem33chT\roh \rfhiG\rejlc C \n\rfe\nbO3&p8N1;wR;ohe;g ;ml;yf ;; 1;q;G;y;e;&p?;;v000;g mr/vRto \n iegty jç_\r oU c&\rXJc&{cEceg \r\ne\n[jfhi{jl gc¦g1;wR;ohe;g ;ml;yf ;; 1;q;G;y;e;&p?;;v000; \rnfegB(mKvJoU_G&\n \rho \n iegB vzb4]BjlgK\n\rKvay CoRR\r ichnh\r &c&\radc ?Co cgii\ncb/:Gf (j#\rjc}\ndv \nc& dfaKH\r3ie vaCp?h G Tc 3y\npÉoh_\ri\nc`cc#oage_{ch\rh\n\nx_fhcgi#e\n\r\r\n\r\n\r\r(\r\r\n\n\n\n\rejlo &\njl_Gfh\revB68c,g\n\rcLicen {c&\rMchEjldhcg\nx_fhcgiLi \rmi\rLjlc,Lnalygfhe|c\r\nighkwcjloT\ni enU\nk|åQ\nmcaJ:[3cvgcE¤æægænab6.3.Sensitivitytomodellingassumptionsoa_;; ;eg; &c; ; c;hi;bVÕ;hf ;; 1;R;h;iG;5;o ;;i;;000;Rc \nrHp1hc,gWjc[,c \rfajlevi{ imrUohc \r\r ifhc \rkB c&egJ\r\r#i c&\ryfhi\r5r`p? i{Mp?eTnUlcoo o c&\rWy Tc/coo ic&egh\nbT~El&p^nh \rÝhJwcjleh[&p 22MarcC.KennedyandAnthonyO'Hagan·····················································································································································································································································································································································································································································································································································································································································································································Quantiles of Standard Normal¿Strategy 1 standardised residuals (n=25)-3-2-10À12Á3Â-10-50510······················································································································································································································································································································································································································································································································································································································································································································Quantiles of Standard Normal¿Strategy 2 standardised residuals (n=25)-3-2-10À12Á3Â-6-4-2024Fig.2.Quantile-QuantileplotsforStrategies1and2withÃÄ=ŲÆKgjl(ce\r\n \rhc\rdohcfhKndjlev\n\r\n\n\r9zgjK}hc&chb/Õf \r\r\n {c3c GvgegeJåQh\nkchB:[3cv_cM¤ægæænab98qjl(\ni enU\n¥cna&g|_\r {c&vgM(\r\r\r\n\r\n\r\rjlR \r\r\n\r\r\rh;#R;RoU; 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