In this case ph ysical obser ations of the system in the speci64257c conte xt are used to lear about the unkno wn par ameters The process of 64257tting the model to the obser ed data adjusting the par ameters is kno wn as calibr ation Calibr ation i ID: 6990 Download Pdf
Wayne . Wakeland. Systems . Science . Seminar . Presenation. 10/9/15. 1. Assertion. Models . must, of course, be . well suited to their intended . application. Thus, . models . for evaluating . policies must be able to .
for Computer Experiments. Habilitation . à. . Diriger. des . Recherches. Olivier ROUSTANT. Ecole des Mines de St-Etienne. 8. th. November 2011. Outline. Foreword. Computer . Experiments. : . Industrial.
of Computer Science Engineer ing Univ ersity of ashington Bo 352350 Seattle 981952350 S A ghultencs w ashingtonedu edro Domingos Dept of Computer Science Engineer ing Univ ersity of ashington Bo 352350 Seattle 981952350 S A pedrodcs w ashingtonedu A
Neuro. -Critical Patients . Using Markov . Models. By. Shashwat. . Bhoop. sb3758. Goal. Main goal is to enhance the way data is visualized in the . neuro. -critical section of the ICU concerned with patient states..
Lesson 1.4. Chapter 1: Using Scientific Inquiry. Interactive Science Grade 8, Pearson Education Inc., Upper Saddle River, New Jersey. Objectives. Explain how models are used in science.. Describe different types of systems, and identify characteristics that all systems share..
All 262 ensemble members from uninitialized CMIP5 models are analyzed to show 10 members simulate the current observed hiatus when internal variability in the models happens, by chance, to sync up with the observed internal variability, but there is no predictive value.
. A . full-scale case . demonstration. U. Rehman. 1). , . W. Audenaert. 1). , C. De Mulder. 1). , Y. Amerlinck. 1. ). , M. . Arnaldos. 2). , S. R. Weijers. 3). , O. Potier. 4). , I. Nopens. 1). 1) BIOMATH, Department of Mathematical Modelling, Statistics and Bio-Informatics, Gent, Belgium..
carletonca Abstract Recent work has demonstrated that several trust and reputa tion models can be exploited by malicious agents with cycli cal behaviour In each cycle the malicious agent with cycli cal behaviour 64257rst regains a high trust value af
caroninriafr Arnaud Doucet Departments of Computer Science Statistics University of British Columbia Vancouver Canada and The Institute of Statistical Mathematics Tokyo Japan arnaudcsubcca Abstract Over recent years Dirichlet processes and the assoc
Prof . Erik Dahlquist. Malardalen . University. e. rik.dahlquist@mdh.se. Objectives. The . aim. of . this. . application. is . to. . build. a . foundation. of . mathematical. . tools. for . application.
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In this case ph ysical obser ations of the system in the speci64257c conte xt are used to lear about the unkno wn par ameters The process of 64257tting the model to the obser ed data adjusting the par ameters is kno wn as calibr ation Calibr ation i
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BayesianCalibrationofComputerModelsMarcC.KennedyandAnthonyO'Hagan \n \r Summary.Weconsiderpredictionanduncertaintyanalysisforsystemswhichareapproxi-matedusingcomplexmathematicalmodels.Suchmodels,implementedascomputercodes,areoftengenericinthesensethatbysuitablechoiceofsomeofthemodel'sinputparametersthecodecanbeusedtopredictbehaviourofthesysteminavarietyofspecicapplications.However,inanyspecicapplicationthevaluesofnecessaryparametersmaybeunknown.Inthiscase,physicalobservationsofthesysteminthespeciccontextareusedtolearnabouttheunknownparameters.Theprocessofttingthemodeltotheobserveddatabyadjustingtheparametersisknownascalibration.Calibrationistypicallyeffectedbyadhoctting,andaftercalibrationthemodelisused,withthettedinputvalues,topredictfuturebehaviourofthesystem.WepresentaBayesiancalibrationtechniquewhichimprovesonthistraditionalapproachintworespects.First,thepredictionsallowforallsourcesofuncertainty,includingtheremaininguncertaintyoverthettedparameters.Second,theyattempttocorrectforanyinadequacyofthemodelwhichisrevealedbydiscrepancybetweentheobserveddataandthemodelpredictionsfromeventhebest-ttingparametervalues.ThemethodisillustratedusingdatafromanuclearradiationreleaseatTomsk,andfromamorecomplexsimulatednuclearaccidentexercise.000;!#"$&%('&)*,+-/.1032546870/984\r:(((\rD(2OH=HPQ0? 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K\r enf\r_1pCQ&pn{cQyf_oa_ eg 8K\r enhf\r.OV'Q+w5/;0.OH:.O*w?\r^/=``\r_p? =`+`KG 38\rt2H+0;H\rQh\re|yfhieg5bl;hc&Tp1lhc,[wRNoie\r&p?oUhhiTBnfeH1c \r#\noa\nh?gP'ch#oUrp?ev`1oUhh|c`wGb4.5.EstimatinghyperparametersRhik\rwoU\n_#[_W [x_fhcg {c&\r iq?'Qrdp1ki\nc_\r\nv {c&\r#'Sgfchce_\r iceM\rEv.VzwVb98\nr(h&pC\n mr/ c\n\njl ijlowtyfhhiegXQchYw\rhcgb0yfet68c,mK cXchce\r[pCgf t&p_\rvg c\rkfl\rhkRRoa\n \roac {cjl {|wcg[p11\rMemc,\rJoUgK\r\n \r qK\r enhf\r0.V53Li\ncen {c&egXoac {cjl {b&p1g mr(.OV+wtz#cBhevgeMg cgi{cnqyfai\rw0;GbED(\ntp?\rhkjlgK[oac {Kjlfhohc {cjl\r c&eg\nK퓄m퓄KkchR퓄r\rt_\rvg c\rJ&g wRfjl i\nceXpCgf\n_cGc\ncKkct\rew0;j#\nh\reghc(x_fhcg {c&\rfh \rgbRhij[fhi{8qjlvgJ\rhcp1gos\n \r\nesjc,LnU0;0; c\r\n igjlofc\rhceMe_\r\nh\regqgtighe\rhc(gsw\ns&cf\n4wGrO\ryf168c,mK c0;0;chce\rQp?(T_ohi\nceEnaqoh cgi\r icb4ejloU \rcgTJc \rkhc&4.VVw5Qp?v\n {ceEnakejlo oU [p? \n\roamiWHwe/.Vxw1W[j#oh \rgoa\n \nbL9VLcgolc|yfe68c,mK cchce\r(p?eU\r\n \ry G\njchqyfe5chi\nc yfHigh\r\n c\rqzo eg (y jc&eg vgc ev\rTRRoU ohc {cjl {b~Eo oUg\r#ehK\rmcE\rJ\n \rlo cfaKn#mejc\r\nQ(qigj#oUh_QewchE\r\nM\r0;w;5b;࢘;Rfh;ry;g ;;y; ;hi;000;w;5b;࢘;Rfh;ry;g ;;y; ;hi;000;ci3c?e/\rmKpC\n \r\n\n\r\rv\n[3mejc\r\nl&cefmdw;5b;࢘;Rfh;ry;g ;;y; ;hi;000;ww;5b;࢘;Rfh;ry;g ;;y; ;hi;000;Gb~M3o oUg\r?\nK\rjc&\rvT3RRoU ohc {cjl {elp1Kcv\n\nb4]J\rhWh {Q{cvgTpC[fhK3fhK3\rh[i[fofQc&{cPiw;5b;࢘;Rfh;ry;g ;;y; ;hi;000;tq\nK\rjc&W\rhRRoa\n \rohc cjl\r\n Au\nK퓄m퓄Kb98 TGKgjlTeyg \rjc\rJcnUf4u|\r[nh\r &c&\rac5cc8grhnhf[c_g\noa\nhWc\rM\r\r\n TR_oU ohc cj#\r\n \r\n\n\r\r0ghc;L;;Rf;j00;p?eRo icJnag j[fhi{sKjc \r9\r1fofW&cf\ni1bl98 yg \r\n \reeKe# 3gKGnR\r \n\r\r|gM\rk\nK\rjc&\r|oasMch\rTRRoU ohc {cjl {/uKe\nrhc,Rehv#h&pΉw\nubK;jlo;ee; ic;&;z;G4];J;l;Km;i;aB;{;vg;WpC;[fh;00;;&ppC evgehceE\r[f[\rBjlr/chcgiif_Wyg wo ie\rr/cdk\rf {imT?fNi\n K{cgJ \nga\nMeRmi\rbb98ijlo jl\r#o \rgoa_KmB\n \rljl\nch\rci\nifhg{u$\n\r\r BayesianCalibrationofComputerModels1561kwevzsLcGcJmejc\r\nB,cefhrUpCGci\nifhgE{u$Ty Gnh\r &c&eg\n \r ch \n\rfhc`fai \rce_gb61swv0osch\r|RRoa\n \rohc cjl\r\n uKe\nlc#mejc&\nX&cf\n\nr(p1Ecgiigf_{u$3yg jl`hc\nx_fhcib61wvE\r|RRoa\n \rohc cjl\r\n |uS\r퓄m퓄Klc&mejc&\nX&cf\n\nrdp1|Ecgiigf_{u$3yg 3iQfai \rce_gb;g \r\r\nem\r\nrOpC\rgfK\r \nQhc&tmci{icgKe[ WgeE\rhJ\r\nihsg m5H\nifhi \rc_cnUf|R_oU ohc cj#\r\n q\rhc vgemi\rm`rQchpCMna\negLhc&|fh |chcK ico\rf \nT\rkjlc Woac \rWcd\n\rk\rf {imQfai \rce_gb~M yg \rqicej\rac&gf eQ;G;jl; 0;chce\r#*'m"+ \nivg\rkuU\rf {im(fhi \rc_rHchB\rhc\r\r\rhcc5Kgf i\n8c Qi&\n \rml\rl 8wR\r\ng8hc\rcgiigf_Cyg cRjl\revlRRoa\n \roac {cjl eQ;G;jl; 0;fhi \rc_rc&?Wi_?V\n \rjfhi{eai \nc\r\nigjlofc\r5b4]#vg_{c&\r K\r i\nr&/ /v\n {ceT \nivg\r\nT\rhcd}_ vvGmejc\r\n/c \r1 \nc\racnT \rgnfhKV\ry jU\rh3i&&c chiCyfhhieg5r_ch#g#\rW fhvm\roac {cjl {elhc&dyfhhieg5rgnhf\rhc8\rTo \ni\r,c \r cai\n\r\r\n\n\np?e;`;R;o ;ic;;qna;Tg; ;qK;h;;eg;G;l ;gfv;;h;Coa; {;jl;; 8;&c;f;b0;f \r\rh j#g \rgra\rfhi{Johc cj#\r\n c \rTh\rg \rfaKkeqife3mejc&b?~M[c \rihifa8\rhc\rmKih\r {c&\raGjc,BvgegicfaK#y [iai EcnagfWfh Q\r \nc&jl_W8R_oU ohc cj#\r\n ;y;hi;grap;00;ch[i{h iT(i&&c chiTK\r fhif \rgb?4]Jf \n\r\r\n\rk\rhcWf Woh \rmi\rl&c chimTicen {c&\rlp1/p? RNnhci{}Ec&{crVchE\r ThcgTnUsgf woU e\nhi1p?[\r\n wcjlo\n\nr,\rRhbV4]l\nieg#hb3pC8o \n\r_/c[eRmev_c&egWp? i{[\r&py V\r_K8cc3\rhcO8H\niaci{}R&p?\nvvfhi \rce_Qe# fvg\nVohc {cjl {5 /Kjceb4.6.Calibration,predictionanduncertaintyanalysis;y;hi;grap;00;3c,Rvmejc&\nk\rhrwpC\r\r\nwm;e;jc;0;Gr\rhc&p1 \r\nvgc MkoUgK\r\n \r # \rnfegX?\rJicen {c&egohc {cjl {WEnUv.VwwG5P;.Vz wm;e;jc;0;VbQ~ElicLfh\rW 3kjc}y\n \r\nhi#cnUfWVr5ce\rgfvBe\r\n_; {c;i;{cn;;;|j;lc;h0;\rhc?_fhj#\n \r ic`jl\rhRh?jfhKnUTfhKm`b/~MWifa\r?coo o c\rG\rmi{ xgfh\n8J\nieg|b_; {c;i;{cn;;;|j;lc;h0;4][o {ci\r igr&pC1p?eR/vg\n ceGnU8e_ \nK\r\ne#y hi1cnagfdc\rfhi{5bV98h1ohf \roUg\r_; {c;i;{cn;;;|j;lc;h0;dicen {c&egJ3\rkfhKW\rlicen {c&\rm|jlRVy 3oh \rmi\rvq \nczo im\r\nb~M[icJ\rhe}zi\ncen {c&egqc1cWo j#hc \r[\rlc \rm\r\rehvQ\r\r\n\r\n\rK\nh\reRe|chcK \r\r\n\n\n\rbW98Rfh\nrH\rlo nhe\njWo \ni\rvtL \rfhLo i\n#hU/kc&|Kgj#MKoU\nia\n&c \r cnBof{|icnasK\ncgh;Ef;hi; ;c;_;Jc;hc;e;;r`;;i ;enU;L;;Rmi;;s;b0;e_ oagc\rvQyfhi\rhU퓄b98WoUgK\r 3 K\r enf\rJhU퓄?ighe\rhczg|\rWmejc\r\n|RRoU ohc {cjl {Awch\rTi\ncen {c&egkoac {cjl {8B?cPQcfh\r\r co \ri\nb48jlmcyfhi\r|8vgegnR^hUdV+wG+zd$88H&'(?b,8H&/`5^zGր`'Q`Kmgp? $88`do$d8H$ddchb&8H(oJB\r8{U}qoBK8`+}lH\r(XJ8}l\n- 16MarcC.KennedyandAnthonyO'Hagan4?i&,c \r caiGyfhieg|?vgegkn_i&`*hahUV+wGVdRoK?HmHK"?8eb&8{H&/H5b&{H#x$88HG〤`&/U5b&8H\r&/瀛`x$?HGր`&/H5b,HKp? |瀛`d^xSH&z_`5ր`K5b/61ijnhev#\rh? 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