Planning Canberra’s Light Rail

Planning Canberra’s Light Rail Planning Canberra’s Light Rail - Start

Added : 2016-09-13 Views :70K

Download Presentation

Planning Canberra’s Light Rail




Download Presentation - The PPT/PDF document "Planning Canberra’s Light Rail" is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to download and print the materials on this web site for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this agreement.



Presentations text content in Planning Canberra’s Light Rail

Slide1

Planning Canberra’s Light Rail

R J

Nairn

BE,

Bec

,

FIEAust

Slide2

Feasibility Planning

Understand your objectives

Define the problem (if there is one)

Understand the cause

Can we fix the cause? If not can we fix the Symptom?

Derive all options for the fix

Option design and feasibility testing

Economic and financial testing

Slide3

Planning objectives

People choose to live in urban areas so that they can enjoy proximity to employment,

e

ducation, health services, shopping, sporting and entertainment facilities and community functions.

The frequency with which they travel is an indicator of their participation and enjoyment and the social & economic “health” of the city.

The transport planners objective is to help them travel and thus participate at minimum travel cost.

Slide4

The Urban Plan

Canberra is planned as an

“Urban Village

” with an Hierarchy to provide easy access to frequently visited destinations and greater variety further away.

Local centres

have IGA or Coles or Woolworths, a Post Office, Baker, Church and a Restaurant.

Group Centres

have several convenience stores (Coles, Woolworths and ALDI), Banks, Travel Agent and some speciality stores.

Regional Centres

have comparative stores (Myers and David Jones), theatres and all the above.

The

Central Business District

has Government and Head Office Employment with all the above.

Slide5

Urban Planning Influence on Travel

There is ample concrete evidence that this hierarchy, which closely integrates travel destinations with residential areas, reduces travel costs and increases urban participation.

The problem is that Gungahlin has the least proportion of jobs to population of all districts in Canberra and it is planned to get worse.

This generates excess costly travel out of Gungahlin.

Slide6

The Planning Problem

DistrictEmployment/Population Ratio201120162021Gungahlin26.1%19.8%20.2%Belconnen29.8%30.3%30.9%North Canberra145.6%149.2%147.5%South Canberra191.6%187.8%176.8%Woden49.3%50.8%51.8%Tuggeranong21.0%23.2%24.5%Molonglo16.0%23.6%All Canberra57.1%56.6%56.1%

Future Change in Regional Employment/Population RatiosSource: TaMS

The same is true of Regional Retailing and Education /Population Ratios despite the younger population in Gungahlin

The real problem is in Land-use Planning

Slide7

The Stated Problem

It is stated that the main arterials roads from Gungahlin are heavily congested in the peak hours.

All queues at the two busiest intersections on Northbourne Avenue clear every cycle (except right turns) which is an acceptable Level-of-Service.

In fact

Gundaroo

Drive has greater delays.

Slide8

Why is there a land-use problem?

Probably the greatest single factor is the rapid unplanned growth of employment and retailing at the Airport. The ACT Government cannot control this or match the incentives – free land.

Gradual loss of impetus in professional planning probably due to lack of understanding and emphasis on basic planning principles (embedded in the Y plan) in favor of short-term political needs.

Slide9

What options?

Create incentives

to reduce travel or increase costs

This contradicts basic planning principles.

Adjust the future land-use

planning.

This presents a series of problems of its own.

Governments have limited control to implement planning decisions; and

Short-term financial issues tend to overshadow effective investment policies. It is easier to sell developable land than attract employment industry, which costs incentives.

Increase transport system capacity

.

Slide10

Adjust the future land-use planning

The

districts most in need of

employment and other planning reinforcement

are Gungahlin, Molonglo and

Tuggeranong.

The districts most in need of population are

North and South

Canberra.

Governments can raise money by building and selling shopping

centres

(Belconnen Mall)

Adding more high-rise residential to Northbourne Avenue will increase congestion.

Slide11

Increase transport system capacity

.Options

Increase ACTION capacity and operations;

Improve road capacity;

Introduce Light Rail; or

Investigate other Mode options.

Slide12

Increase ACTION capacity

ACTION’s capacity can be improved by more frequent services but this is costly.

CriterionACTION BusCarPassengers per Vehicle9.7741.236Expenditure per Passenger-Km$0.395$0.316Fuel per Passenger-Km (Litres)0.1950.081

Buses in Canberra cost more than cars on an all-day basis and use more fuel per passenger-Km so t

he justification for subsidizing bus travel is based on social not on efficiency or environmental issues.

It is questionable whether added services are useful but improving existing services is a preferred priority.

Slide13

Increase ACTION capacity

ACTION services can be improved by the provision of exclusive lanes on Canberra’s streets, which can be implemented in several ways as follows:-

Providing exclusive lanes

for buses, taxis and emergency vehicles, particularly at intersections; or

Limiting existing lanes for buses and

High Occupancy Vehicles

(HOV).

These can be implemented either by:

Changing existing lanes by line marking and signs, or

Road or intersection widening.

These measures reduce time and help reliability

Slide14

Increase road capacity

Part of Flemington Road needs to be completed to 4 lanes.Northbourne Avenue intersections can be improved at relatively little cost.There are many other areas in Canberra where road or intersection improvements could improve bus services.They improve car travel as well.

Slide15

Introduce Light Rail

Light rail services carry more people than buses if the demand is present and use electric power rather than fossil fuels. We do not yet know the source of this electric power in Canberra.If implemented in their own right-of-way they are less influenced by street congestion than buses but still need to stop at intersections.They cost more to operate than buses.

Slide16

Investigate other Mode options

Elevated modes do not have to stop at intersections and are therefore faster but stop less frequently and require bigger stations which usually develop as commercial opportunities and can be used to pay for the service and to reinforce planning objectives.Track costs are comparable with Light Rail but do not need land resumption or service relocation.They are usually quieter than Light Rail and much safer.

Slide17

Feasibility testing

Option definition

Preliminary alignment & service relocation

Preliminary costing

Preliminary environmental check

(Above depends on mode selection as an Elevated

mode avoids service

relocation but possibly higher track and station cost)

Estimate

patronage, rolling

stock

requirements and other impacts using

simulative

modeling

Slide18

Feasibility testing

As any first transit line is unlikely to be viable economically, but further line additions add to its viability, it is necessary to establish how large a network needs to be to be viable if at all.

Testing needs to build up this minimum network stage by stage and then establish which stage should come first to optimize the outcome.

Gungahlin Line

Belconnen Line

Woden Line

Tuggeranong Line

Queanbeyan Line

Airport Line

Triangle Loop

Slide19

Feasibility testing

The travel simulation model consists of:a suite of software, that controls operations of the model and performs calculations;a network database, describing the road and public transport infrastructure and its characteristics;land-use files, containing forecasts of travel-related land use variables; and,a set of files describing the travel characteristics of Canberra residents obtained from household interviews

Slide20

Economic Criteria

Benefit-to-Cost Ratio

– this needs to be well over 1.0 and usually needs to be about 2.5 to be funded.

Net Present Value

– is the net value of the project discounted over 30 years (usually).

Internal Rate of Return

– This is the investment yield rate of the project. It should be well over 5% and nearer 12% to 15%.

Slide21

Economic feasibility testing

Detailed results for the Gungahlin line

System

Item

Gungahlin

Mass Transit

System

Track & Station

$ 767.99

Rolling Stock

$ 21.09

Op Cost

$ 270.89

Highway system

savings

Construction

$ 3.19

Maintenance

$ 3.39

Accidents

$ 23.75

Veh

Op Cost

$ 121.16

Parking

$ 0.99

Time cost

$ 51.14

ACTION savings

Fleet

$ 2.03

Op cost

$ 47.03

Time

$ 354.56

Benefits

Property

$ 13.22

Environment

$ 0.56

Consumer

$ 48.44

Net Present Value @ 5%

-$ 340.13

Slide22

Include Induced development?

Most economists will not accept induced land-use development as a benefit.

Northbourne

Avenue redevelopment should not be attributed to Light Rail.

Property price effects do occur but they are small.

However, there is research which shows a probable causal relationship between access and density not just a tautology.

Slide23

Economic feasibility testing

Economic result of each line

Transit LineBenefit to Cost Ratio @ 5%Gungahlin-City0.57Belconnen-City0.85Woden-City0.47Tuggeranong-City0.26Airport-City0.38Queanbeyan-City0.45National Triangle Loop0.27All lines1.85

Road improvement projects in Canberra usually have a Benefit/Cost Ratio of at least 2.5 and this is an investment cut-off level required by most Road Authorities.

This allows for risk and that many of the benefits are intangibles.

Slide24

Staging sequence

Testing various staging options

Option

Transit Lines

Discount Rate

5%

1

Belconnen

-City-

Gungahlin

1.28

2

Belconnen-City-Woden

0.51

3

Gungahlin-City-Woden

0.41

4

Belconnen-City-Airport

1.60

5

Gungahlin-City-Airport

0.68

6

Belconnen-City-Airport

Plus City-Tuggeranong

1.64

7

Gungahlin-City-Airport

Plus City-Tuggeranong

1.60

8

Belconnen

-City-Airport +

Gungahlin

-City-Tuggeranong

1.75

9

All lines combined

1.85

Slide25

Stage

Transit LinesDiscount Rate5%1Belconnen-City0.852City-Airport0.903City-Tuggeranong1.644Gungahlin-City1.755City-Loop-Queanbeyan1.85

The optimal staging sequence

Slide26

Effect of Improved land-use

Effect on travel

CriteriaYear2021Trip Participation rate0.36%Mode Split0.69%Highway trip cost-6.20%Transit trip cost-5.53%Road accident costs-0.32%

Effect on economic results

Stage

Transit Lines

No Land-use Change

With Land-use Change

1

Belconnen-City

0.85

0.93

2

City-Airport

0.90

1.13

3

City-Tuggeranong

1.64

1.82

4

Gungahlin-City

1.75

1.88

5

City-Loop-Queanbeyan

1.85

1.94

Slide27

Results for the Elevated mode

Effect on network peak patronage

System Type20212031Surface9,78420,639Elevated10,73323,634

Effect on economic result

Transit Line

Surface System

Elevated System

No change

Change

No change

Change

Land-use

Gungahlin-City

0.57

0.81

0.63

0.99

Belconnen-City

0.85

0.93

0.86

1.24

Woden-City

0.47

0.83

0.73

1.17

Tuggeranong-City

0.26

0.37

0.56

0.79

Airport-City

0.38

0.73

0.42

0.88

Queanbeyan-City

0.45

0.61

0.39

0.43

National Triangle Loop

0.27

0.41

0.30

0.79

All lines

1.85

1.94

2.43

2.64

Slide28

Sensitivity & Risk assessment

Sensitivity testing

Sensitivity TestInternal Rate of ReturnSurfaceElevatedNo Change14.5%23.2%20% increase in Track/Station Costs11.8%18.9%20% increase in Vehicle Costs14.3%23.0%Double Operating Costs13.5%22.3%Half savings in ACTION Op Cost14.4%23.1%Half savings in ACTION fleet13.0%22.1%Half improved Mode Choice14.2%22.3%No Land-use Change13.6%19.8%20% Increase in MTS fares13.8%17.7%

Risk assessment

System

Probable Risk-adapted IRR

Probable Maximum Range

Surface

10.5%

7.7% to 13.3%

Elevated

17.0%

12.4% to 21.6%

Slide29

Financial assessment

The financial evaluation differs from the economic evaluation in that the latter concerns the national economy as a whole, not the individual affairs of a particular

identity, in this case the ACT Government.

The

financial analysis

assumed

that t

he ACT Government will borrow all funds needed to provide the

track,

stations and rolling stock

at

5%

interest and

repay the loan funds over 15 years.

The

analysis is for a period of 30

years

Slide30

Financial assessment

The financial analysis shows that the project is not viable on these assumptions at current fare levels returning an Internal Rate of Return of -4.41%.

The ACT Government would need to contribute 39% of the Capital costs, or $156

millions each year,

from annual revenue

.

A higher fare

sufficiently reduced the patronage and

fare

revenue and the savings from the ACTION system, that the financial result was

worse

with an Internal Rate of Return of

-4.78%.

Slide31

Financial assessment - Elevated

With an elevated mode t

he result was improved with an IRR of -0.18%

but the ACT Government would still need to contribute 16% of the Capital costs, or $64 millions, from annual revenue.

The higher fare test produced an IRR of -1.46%.

With a risk-sharing PPP arrangement, and the private partner expecting a return of 9% on capital invested,

ACT Government would have to contribute 48% of the capital from revenue or $192 millions from annual revenue (and 28% from loan funds) to achieve an IRR of 0.02%.

Slide32

Conclusions

The land-use system is the problem but is hard to fix.

The transport system is adequate - not the problem.

There has been inadequate planning so far leading to the Gungahlin Light Rail project.

A mass transit system for Canberra can be economically viable eventually.

Gungahlin is not the right place to start.

Light Rail is not the best mode.

Further development must take place before a Mass Transport System can be financially viable and attractive for a PPP partner to invest.

Slide33

Slide34

Slide35

Slide36

Slide37

Slide38


About DocSlides
DocSlides allows users to easily upload and share presentations, PDF documents, and images.Share your documents with the world , watch,share and upload any time you want. How can you benefit from using DocSlides? DocSlides consists documents from individuals and organizations on topics ranging from technology and business to travel, health, and education. Find and search for what interests you, and learn from people and more. You can also download DocSlides to read or reference later.
Youtube