Irrational Career Decision Making
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Irrational Career Decision Making

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Irrational Career Decision Making




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Presentation on theme: "Irrational Career Decision Making"— Presentation transcript:

Slide1

Irrational Career Decision Making

…and what we might do about itDave Redekopp, June, 2014

Slide2

Outline

Why irrationality,

b

ehavioural

economics and positive psychology?

What are the key ideas?

What does the field of

b.e

. have to offer? There seem to be more of them than us doing research – let’s make use of it

What are the implications of these ideas for career development?

E.g., job uncertainty, self-evaluation, financial stability, decision-making, workplace

behaviour

, service evaluation

What might we do about these implications?

Slide3

Why?

We know what’s right, good and true!

We tell clients what’s right, good and true

Clients do not do what we say

We do not do what we say

What we say may be right, good and true, but it’s unlikely to ever happen

“The gap between planning and doing is an example of a psychological bias, a systematic deviation from rationale behavior” (Kirsten Rohde, 2014)

Slide4

Why?

Let’s figure out what might actually happen

Consider

“harm reduction” rather than “crime prevention” strategies

Engaging in counter-productive

behaviour

is not an “

accident” – much of it is largely hard-wired

Slide5

Why?

The big trends in conceptions of

behaviour

in the last two decades…

Positive Psychology

Happiness

Behavioural

Economics

Mindfulness

Slide6

Positive Psychology

Key figure – Martin SeligmanEarly proponent – Abraham Maslow

Slide7

Happiness

Key figure – Dan Gilbert

Slide8

Behavioural Economics

Key figuresDaniel KahnemanDan Ariely (Predictable Irrationality)Thaler & Sunstein (Nudge)Gerd Gigerenzer (Risk Literacy)

Slide9

Core Issues in Career Development

Anxiety

Beliefs

Decision-Making / Choice

Risk Management

Values

Preferences

Non-Cognitive Skills (Self-Management)

Slide10

Core Concepts, Biases, Effects, Heuristics & Cognitive Illusions

Behavioural

Economics

Slide11

First, thanks to…

Slide12

Core Concepts

Study of judgment & decision-making

System 1: fast, intuitive, emotional, “automatic”

Considered mostly a nuisance in career theory and practice

System 2: slow, rational, deliberate, “reflective”

What we strive for in career development theory and practice

Slide13

Examples

Group A:

Is the average income of a welder in more or less than US$50,000?

What is your best guess about the average income of a welder?

Slide14

Examples (cont’d)

Group B:

Is the average income of a welder in more or less than US$30,000?

What is your best guess about the average income of a welder?

Slide15

Example Intervention: “Clocky”

Slide16

Reference Dependence/Anchoring/Priming

We evaluate not on absolutes but in terms of what we already have or what we expect

How do we change the salary anchors of the recently unemployed (or do we)?

How do we shift focus on one anchor (e.g., salary) to another anchor (e.g., meaningfulness) (or do we)?

Slide17

The Endowment Effect/Loss Aversion

We value it

because

we own it

Our starting point shapes the outcomes in any trade

We

own

our jobs

Lateral moves are therefore losses!

Losses are weighted more heavily than gains

Example: Losing $10 has more emotional impact than winning $10

Slide18

Hyperbolic Discounting

What we want depends on when you ask us

A cookie today or two tomorrow?

A cookie 365 days from now or two 366 days from now?

“Save More Tomorrow” plan

“Future” raises go to retirement investments

Need to opt out

Slide19

Sunk Cost Bias

Past costs (sunk costs) are irrelevant to success but have an enormous impact on decisions

“No matter how far down the wrong road you’ve gone, turn back.”

Turkish proverb

Past decisions and investments (e.g., education) lock us in

“Kristen Cumming Effect”

Demo auction

Slide20

Framing (connects to Loss Aversion & Anchoring)

Losses are not the mirror image of gains

You can play for 10 more minutes before bed vs.

Bed in 10 minutes; you can play until then

The odds of survival 1 month after surgery are 90% vs.

Mortality within 1 month of surgery is 10%

90% fat-free vs.

10% fat

Slide21

Framing (cont’d)

We plan to prevent 250,000 fatalities and serious injuries due to traffic collisions in the next decade

We plan to kill or seriously injure 250,000 Australians in the next decade

We will reduce fatalities and serious injuries due to traffic collisions by 50% over the next decade

Slide22

Confirmation Bias / Halo Effect

People seek data likely to confirm their hypotheses

How do we jar clients out of their pre-conceived notions of:

Occupations?

Work world?

Personal agency?

(…or should we?)

How do we help clients make sure their first hours/days (in a class or at work) are exceptional (or should we?)

How do we help employers make sure the first hours/days are exceptional for the employee (or should we?)

Slide23

Base Rate Neglect

People make mistakes in judging probabilities

“Sector X will grow by 99% next year!”

Slide24

Overconfidence/ The Planning Fallacy

“I can be anything I want”

“…plans and forecasts that

Are unrealistically close to best-case scenarios

Could be improved by consulting the statistics of similar cases” (p. 250)

Need an “outside view”, not WYSIATI

Pre-mortems can be helpful

Slide25

Crowding-Out

Extrinsic motivators ‘crowd-out’ intrinsic motivation

Slide26

Priming

Embedding sub-conscious clues to change

behaviour

How do clients enter your program/service?

What language do you use to introduce your program/service?

Slide27

The Focusing Illusion / Focalism

“Nothing in life is as important as you think it is when you are thinking about it.” (p. 402)

Who has greater life satisfaction: Californians or

Ohioians

?

How much pleasure do you get from your car?

When

do you think about your car?

Miswanting

: bad choices arising from errors of affective forecasting

Slide28

Remembering Self

There’s a big difference between the “experiencing self” and the “remembering self”

Slide29

Broaden-and-Build Theory

Frederickson:

P

ositive affect increases ability to see possibilities

Negative affect reduces perceptual field

Slide30

Practice, Programming & Profession

How could you change your marketing/ informational materials to prime clients for resourcefulness?

What could you change in your services to make “wise” choices built-in (i.e., having the client opt-out of “wise” choices)?

How can you change your evaluation practices to produce evidence that will nurture the success of the next group of clients?

Slide31

Thank You!

For comments or questions, contact:

Dave

Redekopp

liferole@telusplanet.net

780.451.1954

www.liferole.com

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